LAND OF THE THUNDER DRAGON IMPRESSES CODEL MCCAIN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 NEW DELHI 003187

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/19/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PREF PHUM KNNP BH IN CH
SUBJECT: LAND OF THE THUNDER DRAGON IMPRESSES CODEL MCCAIN

REF: A. A) NEW DELHI 03016

B. B) NEW DELHI 00971

C. C) NEW DELHI 00202

Classified By: DCM Steven White. Reasons: 1.4(B, D).


1. (SBU) Summary. The December 3-5 visit to Bhutan of
Senators McCain, Lieberman, and Graham demonstrated strong
U.S. support for the tiny Himalayan kingdom as this historic
year draws to a close. The delegation met with the current
and former Kings, the Prime Minister, the Foreign Minister,
the Opposition Party Leader, and the Chief Justice.
Throughout the meetings, the Senators praised Bhutan,s
successful transition to democracy, its firmly established
rule of law, the exemplary quality of its leadership, and its
ability to safeguard its security and sovereignty in a
"difficult neighborhood." Topics discussed include
establishing formal diplomatic relations with the U.S., the
Indo-Pak crisis in the aftermath of the Mumbai terror
attacks, Bhutan's democratic transition, World Trade
Organization (WTO) accession, and climate change. The Royal
Government of Bhutan (RGOB) received the high-level
delegation with appropriate pomp, heralding the visit as a
major step forward in U.S.-Bhutan relations. End Summary.

Meet the Thunder Dragon!
--------------


2. (U) During the December 3-5 visit of Senators McCain,
Lieberman, and Graham, the RGOB spared no expense to honor
the high-level delegation and proudly display Bhutanese
culture. In every meeting, Senator McCain expressed
appreciation for Bhutan's smooth transformation into a
"cradle of democracy." In turn, RGOB officials, starting
with Prime Minister Jigme Thinley, congratulated McCain on
his presidential campaign. Thinley called it a "heroic
campaign" and said he believes McCain has triumphed "by
accepting defeat with grace." Similar sentiments were echoed
by both the current and former Kings, who noted that McCain
set an "example for young democracies like Bhutan."

U.S.-Bhutan Relations "Inevitable...in Three Years"
--------------


3. (U) Senator Lieberman asked the PM and the King about the
possibility of establishing diplomatic relations, with the
caveat that the USG will not push Bhutan on the matter. In
response, RGOB officials were quick to highlight the success
of visits and informal exchanges. The current King, Jigme
Khesar Namgyel Wangchuck, told the Senators he "cherished"
the visit of such a high-level delegation and views it as
"one step forward" for the U.S.-Bhutan friendship which he
hopes to strengthen in coming years. PM Thinley emphasized
that despite not having formal relations, the U.S. indirectly
plays a role in Bhutan's democratic development as several
leaders, especially cabinet ministers, received their
education in the U.S. He also pointed to the "steady flow"
of International Visitor Leadership Program (IVLP)
participants who have visited the U.S. since 1998.
Additionally, Americans make up the great majority of
Bhutan's tourists. The PM also noted that the U.S. presence
in Bhutan is growing, especially through informal support and
cultural interaction.


4. (C) PM Thinley said formal diplomatic relations are
"inevitable" and that Bhutan realizes that diplomatic
relations would provide a greater benefit to Bhutan than to
the U.S. He hopes relations will be established in the near
future, but cautioned that Bhutan is sandwiched between India
and China and must consider the responses of both nations
when expanding diplomatic ties. Bhutan does not yet have
"normal relations" with China given the border dispute, but
Bhutan "pursues this matter energetically" and has engaged in
demarcation discussions for the last 15 years. The PM
disclosed that China would like to establish diplomatic
relations before resolving the border dispute, but this would
be sensitive for both sides and would also make India
"nervous." Bhutan wants to resolve the issue before
expanding relations outside the region.


5. (SBU) The current King reiterated the PM's message and
advised that Bhutan's small size poses constant challenges;

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consequently, it must gradually expand diplomatic relations
and balance resources devoted to diplomatic endeavors with
those devoted to socio-economic development. The King
commented that because of Bhutan's geo-political location
between India and China, it values its friendship with the
U.S. even more -- "you cannot succeed in this region without
friends." Senator Lieberman responded that the U.S. would
also benefit from formalizing ties given the countries'
shared values. He articulated that while the gains may not be
"materialistic, in the long-term, they may be more
substantive."


6. (C) Senator Lieberman emphasized USG appreciation for
Bhutan's support in the UN General Assembly -- in sharp
contrast to the voting records of Bhutan's neighbors to the
north and south. He specifically thanked the Bhutanese PM
for Bhutan's abstentions on the votes on Iran's and Cuba's
human rights record.

Shangri-la in South Asia
--------------


7. (C) Bhutanese officials, particularly the Fourth King
Jigme Singye Wangchuck, expressed a keen interest in the
Indo-Pak crisis, precipitated by the Mumbai terror attacks.
He gave a grim assessment of the situation, noting the timing
of the Senators' visit is "extremely important." A keen
observer of the region, the Fourth King said that the
fragility of India's present UPA government and the looming
Lok Sabha elections concern him. The Fourth King was
apprehensive of the Indian people's condemnation of their own
government, not just the terrorists. He predicted the UPA
government will need to "save face" in the wake of the
tragedy and, unless the Government of Pakistan reacts
positively, India will "definitely" become aggressive. He
contended the Secretary's December 3 visit to New Delhi was
the only factor delaying India from attacking Pakistan.
According to the Fourth King, if India attacks, then the
terrorists have succeeded in reversing the improved relations
between the long-time regional foes. The extremists' endgame
is for Pakistan to divert its troops to the eastern front,
and the Fourth King believes this will happen if "something
is not done now."


8. (C) Regarding the U.S. role in this crisis, the Fourth
King opined, "Pakistan has never played straight with the
U.S. - they want to get as much as possible while doing as
little as possible." He argued that as Pakistan is on the
verge of an economic collapse, the U.S. should use its
financial leverage by giving Pakistan USD 4-5 billion to
prevent it from becoming a failed stated. However, the
Fourth King cautioned that the U.S. must give the money very
carefully. The Senators agreed with the Fourth King's
assessment and noted that Congress would have cut off aid to
Pakistan earlier if the U.S. was not "entangled" in
Afghanistan.


9. (C) The Fourth King asked the Senators how the U.S. would
respond if India strikes Pakistan. The Senators noted that
threatening to cut off funding to Pakistan only works during
a time of rising tensions, not once the first strike has been
made. Senator Lieberman stated that if the conflict
escalated the U.S. would likely "come in with others" to
mediate. He also referenced a recommendation received from
Washington think-tanks - namely that the U.S. should convince
Pakistan that the U.S. wants a long-term relationship with
the country so they "don't need to get into bed with the
Taliban." The King supported this proposal, but cautioned
that the U.S. needs to "back it up with support, financial or
otherwise." The Fourth King doubted whether the promises
made by Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari have "follow
through" as his government is "extremely weak." Senator
McCain added that the U.S. may have to pursue a
carrot-and-stick approach - offering the opportunity for a
long-term relationship while threatening to cut funding.


10. (SBU) Before discussing the U.S. presence in Afghanistan,
the Fourth King told the senators that he "personally felt
that the actions taken against Iraq were not the wisest" and
that the USG "should have focused on Afghanistan." He asked
the delegation, "if you stay there (Afghanistan) indefinitely
can you bring about real political change?" Yet, he argued

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that the U.S. should remain in Afghanistan, but should also
ensure that the allied forces create an effective Afghan
security force. The Fourth King doubted the Afghans are
capable of "changing their ways," considering the animosity
bred by the system of tribalism. He fears that if the U.S.
"weakens its grip, all hell will break loose." In the Fourth
King's opinion, the U.S. "must hold onto Kabul."


11. (SBU) PM Thinley struck a more positive note, remarking
that the entire region wishes India and Pakistan would
resolve their differences as only then could the South Asian
Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) become an
effective organization. The PM believes the region has great
potential; however, it cannot prosper without mutual trust
between its two largest nations. He contended the Indo-Pak
relationship continues to influence Indian politics, adding
that not many Indian politicians are seriously committed to
finding a solution. He highlighted Indian Prime Minister
Manmohan Singh as an exception, praising him for his
dedication to resolving the issue. Overall, PM Thinley
believes India is making a greater effort than Pakistan to
find a solution. He hopes that the Mumbai attacks will shake
India and Pakistan out of their "mental rigidity" and
generate bold initiatives.

The Transition Continues
--------------


12. (U) The Fourth King, who abdicated the throne in favor of
his son in 2005, provided a brief history of the kingdom's
27-year transition to democracy, prefacing it with his belief
that "monarchy was never the best form of government,
especially for the security and sovereignty of Bhutan." He
noted that "without democracy, we would be in serious trouble
with India and China." The Fourth King raised the level of
literacy and introduced English as the language of
instruction in Bhutan's schools, arguing that increased
education and income provide the key to a smooth democratic
transition. When the literacy rate reached approximately 60
per cent, the former King decided that the country was "ready
for democracy."


13. (U) When asked about the timing of his abdication, the
Fourth King said that "in order to initiate democracy, there
must be total peace and stability within the country." In
2003, the Fourth King led a military campaign to remove
Assamese militants from southern Bhutan, and development in
Bhutan was at its highest level. He reported that the RGOB
conducted three costly mock elections and when the political,
economic, and security situations were aligned, Bhutan
benefited from the "perfect time for the transition." The
Fourth King feared that if he remained on the throne, the
political parties would be apprehensive about challenging
him; consequently, he wanted the new democracy to have a new
monarch, in order to "start fresh, together."


14. (U) The current King initially played a smaller role in
Bhutan's transition to democracy. After leaving Oxford, his
father charged him with taking the draft constitution around
the country and discussing it with the people, article by
article. The King noted that it was a lesson in
constitutional law with "yak herders asking the most profound
questions." The King divulged that he was completely
surprised when his father abdicated, as he was only given one
day's notice before he was to begin his service as the new
monarch.


15. (U) The King commented that Bhutan's "experiment in
democracy is going well" and praised the Bhutanese people for
embracing change and taking ownership of their government.
The King commended his subjects for being well-informed,
"even in the most remote areas of the country." He admitted
that a democracy needs certain conditions in order to
flourish, including continued peace and stability. The King
estimated Bhutan will mature as a democracy over the next 10
to 15 years and will devote resources to strengthening its
nascent democratic institutions.

"We Got Trashed" -- The Opposition Party
--------------


16. (U) Leader of the opposition People,s Democratic Party

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(PDP) Tshering Tobgay consoled Senator McCain on the
presidential election loss with a traditional Bhutanese
saying: "when two bulls fight, one must win and one must
lose." Tobgay then summed up his party's March 2008
electoral experience, noting "we got trashed." He admitted
that while his party only won two out of 47 seats in the
National Assembly, the PDP pledges to ensure that "the fruits
of democracy are delivered to the people" (Reftel C). The
Senators empathized with the PDP's challenge of holding the
ruling party accountable "without creating anxiety among
their constituents." Tshering told the delegation that he
had learned from the U.S. campaign that "one cannot be too
ideological...nor straightjacket oneself to the party." He
explained that the ruling and opposition parties have no real
ideological differences yet and that the parties were formed
according to the former King's instruction. Tshering
admitted this unique Bhutanese context made the creation of a
true opposition more difficult.


17. (U) Tshering said that Bhutan needs a different breed of
politician, "one who puts the people first and stops
campaigning when the campaign is over." The Senators agreed
with this sentiment, with Senator Graham advising "every
democracy has one common flaw -- they make promises that they
cannot deliver. Don't over-promise." Tshering proffered
that a prerequisite of happiness is security; otherwise,
people are vulnerable to the whims of politicians. His
vision for Bhutan involves creating a legal system in which
the Bhutanese may take sanctuary. In parting, Tshering
referred to the Senators as "godfathers" and vowed "to make
an honest democracy despite the PDP's small numbers."

"Soul-Searching" -- WTO and GNH
--------------


18. (SBU) PM Thinley reported Bhutan has pursued World Trade
Organization (WTO) accession for eight years and the country
could become a member in 2009 -- if it desires. The PM
realizes the tiny kingdom must have a presence in the global
arena, even as an observer; however, it is not confident that
the WTO provides the appropriate venue. According to
Thinley, Bhutan is engaged in "soul-searching" as it
considers if the WTO's principles are in conflict with the
values of Gross National Happiness (GNH). (Note: The Fourth
King coined the term GNH in the 1970s to describe the guiding
philosophy of Bhutan's socio-economic development. GNH is
based on the premise that true development takes place when
material and spiritual development occur simultaneously to
complement and reinforce each other. End Note). PM Thinley
said the RGOB fears that WTO membership would force the
country to compromise the needs of the Bhutanese people's
spiritual development. The PM divulged that at this time the
RGOB will likely conclude that WTO and GNH are not compatible.


19. (U) The PM described Bhutan's vulnerability to global
warming, especially regarding the rapid retreat of its 7,000
glaciers. As the glaciers melt, the excessive water damages
fragile lake walls leading to "glacier lakes outburst floods"
or (GLOFs). RGOB fears that GLOFs could destroy fertile
valleys where most of Bhutan's 680,000 residents live and
farm. According to the PM, climate change is closely linked
to Bhutan's economic development as hydroelectric power is
the largest export. Working with India to improve
infrastructure, RGOB hopes to export 10,000 megawatts
annually over the next 12 years. However, the RGOB is
concerned that after investing billions of dollars into dam
construction for hydroelectric projects, the water will
disappear with the melted glaciers.

Comment -- The Thunder Dragon Inches Closer
--------------


20. (SBU) The high-level delegation's visit left a lasting
impression on Bhutanese officials who viewed it as a
significant step forward in deepening U.S.-Bhutan relations.
The entire kingdom was abuzz with talk of the Senators --
Special Envoy of the Dalai Lama Lodi Gyari, who was traveling
in Bhutan at the same time, confided that the Fifth King
could not stop "gushing" about the delegation. The respect
and admiration was reciprocated by the delegation as Senator
Graham remarked that the visit to the tiny Himalayan kingdom
"recharged our batteries" and reminded the Senators to "put

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the country first." While formal diplomatic relations are
several years down the road, high-profile visits such as
CODEL McCain will raise Bhutan,s visibility in the U.S. and
provide for more opportunities for informal exchanges. End
Comment.
MULFORD