Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08NEWDELHI3104
2008-12-10 05:45:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy New Delhi
Cable title:  

INDIAN TSUNAMI EARLY WARNING SYSTEM TECHNICALLY

Tags:  KGLB KICR KSCA TPHY EFIS EIND SENV TSPL TNGD IN 
pdf how-to read a cable
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RR RUEHAST RUEHHM RUEHLN RUEHMA RUEHPB RUEHPOD RUEHTM
DE RUEHNE #3104/01 3450545
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 100545Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4611
INFO RUEHZN/ENVIRONMENT SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY COLLECTIVE
RUEHCG/AMCONSUL CHENNAI 3969
RUEHNEH/AMCONSUL HYDERABAD 0001
RUEHCI/AMCONSUL KOLKATA 3209
RUEHBI/AMCONSUL MUMBAI 3034
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEHRC/DEPT OF AGRICULTURE WASHDC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RUEIDN/DNI WASHINGTON DC
RHMFIUU/USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHMFISS/HQ USSOCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RUGIAAA/NGA NAVY YARD WASHINGTON DC
RUCPDC/NOAA WASHDC
RUCXONI/ONI WASHINGTON DC
RUEHFR/UNESCO PARIS FR
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 003104 

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR OES/PCI, OES/STC, OES/SAT, OES/EGC, AND SCA/INS
STATE FOR STAS
STATE FOR NSF PHILLIP TAYLOR, LARRY WEBER, VANESSA RICHARDSON
STATE FOR USGS DAVID APPLEGATE, RICHARD CALNAN, WILLIAM LEITH

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KGLB KICR KSCA TPHY EFIS EIND SENV TSPL TNGD IN
SUBJECT: INDIAN TSUNAMI EARLY WARNING SYSTEM TECHNICALLY
PROFICIENT, PROCEDURALLY COMPLEX

REF: UNESCOPARI 07301453

NEW DELHI 00003104 001.2 OF 003


UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 003104

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR OES/PCI, OES/STC, OES/SAT, OES/EGC, AND SCA/INS
STATE FOR STAS
STATE FOR NSF PHILLIP TAYLOR, LARRY WEBER, VANESSA RICHARDSON
STATE FOR USGS DAVID APPLEGATE, RICHARD CALNAN, WILLIAM LEITH

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KGLB KICR KSCA TPHY EFIS EIND SENV TSPL TNGD IN
SUBJECT: INDIAN TSUNAMI EARLY WARNING SYSTEM TECHNICALLY
PROFICIENT, PROCEDURALLY COMPLEX

REF: UNESCOPARI 07301453

NEW DELHI 00003104 001.2 OF 003



1. SUMMARY: (SBU) In October 2008, SCIOFF and SCIFSN toured the
Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES)-affiliated National Institute of
Ocean Technology (NIOT) facilities in Chennai and the Indian
National Center for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) in
Hyderabad, and spoke with scientific staff about ocean research and
monitoring capabilities. NIOT conducts research and development
activities and collects data, while INCOIS focuses on the
compilation, analysis and dissemination of ocean information,
including tsunami warning. India's Tsunami Early Warning Center is
poised to rapidly identify and assess potential tsunamis. Actually
warning the public and international community could prove
problematic, however, as the process requires decisions and actions
by both central and state government offices, and the pledged
early-warning website isn't online yet. On a positive note, NIOT
and INCOIS data helps fishermen, coral reef watchers, and shipping
companies make informed decisions on where to focus their efforts.
END SUMMARY.

IMPRESSIVE REGIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING NETWORK, BUT HOW DO THEY
COMMUNICATE?


2. (U) India's Tsunami early warning center officially came online
at INCOIS on 15 October, 2007 and has been operating continuously
since. Using data from numerous international sources, the center
conducts real time monitoring of seismic activity around the world.
When an ocean-centered earthquake is detected, INCOIS' 24x7
operations center retrieves from their databases a scenario that
matches the quake's location and magnitude to estimate likely
tsunami activity. (NOTE: INCOIS stores numerical models of

earthquakes of several magnitudes along the two most likely fault
lines, the Andaman-Sumatra Trench in the Bay of Bengal and the Makra
Coast in the Arabian Sea, to speed up the process of tsunami
forecasting. These models use too much c/mputing power to be
effectively run in real time, though INCOIS' system allows operators
to update values using actual data from an event. END NOTE.)


3. (SBU) Based on this model and the initial data, and within 20
minutes of an event, INCOIS provides the Ministry of Home Affairs
(MHA) and the MoES a preliminary assessment of a local, regional or
ocean-wide tsunami by issuing an "All Clear", "Watch", "Alert" or
"Warning" message. An updated message, sent within 30 minutes of
the event, includes tsunami travel times, run-up heights, and
directivity maps based on data continuously collected from tsunami
buoys, bottom pressure sensors, and tidal gauges. According to T.
Srinivasa Kumar, scientist in charge of the National Tsunami Warning
Centre, the MHA and MoES then decide whether and how to warn
impacted Indian states, any international partners through "the
appropriate bilateral or multilateral treaties", and the general
public.


4. (SBU) Kumar indicated that a Warning or Alert for a tsunami with
less than a 60 minute travel time also would be issued directly to
the public, likely through the same alert system used for cyclones.
However, he said that INCOIS would not pass the information directly
and he was unsure how the message would actually be provided to the
appropriate alert systems. He further said that the general public
could sign up on the web to receive tsunami alert notifications via
e-mail or text message. However, SCIOFF was unable to track down
the described link and noted that the webpage in INCOIS' briefing
that contained tsunami-related information is not available on their
website, and may be an as-of-yet-unpublished webpage or an
internal-only link.


5. (U) SCIOFF noted that the tsunami early warning center contained
modern computer and display equipment, video-teleconference and
phone connections reported to be linked directly to MHA and MoES,
and back-up servers and generators to ensure continued operations.

NEW DELHI 00003104 002.2 OF 003


During the briefing that took place in the warning center, SCIOFF
observed the system registering several land-based seismic events
around the world in what looked like real-time. Center staff
appeared to be knowledgeable about both the systems and science,
they easily answered questions and explained their tsunami event
analysis processes.


6. (U) INCOIS has generated detailed inundation maps for various
tsunami heights to identify areas most likely to be effected, and
made them available to central and state government officials for
emergency and long-term planning, according to Kumar. Calculations
for these maps take into account both natural land features and
building structures.


7. (U) NIOT is responsible for deployment and management of the
Indian tsunami warning buoys, and plans to set up a complement of 12
buoys around the two key fault lines. It is unclear how
successfully they will be in this endeavor in the short term. Of
the six deployed buoys, the control centers in NIOT showed only one
to be operational while a week later INCOIS showed three to be
operational. NIOT Project Director Dr. V. Rajendran and the buoy
program staff said that buoys are often vandalized or damaged,
likely by fishermen whose nets tend to be ripped by the buoys or by
people looking to steal the solar panels. These buoys eventually
wash up on the beach and in one case, Dr. Rajendran indicated that
all of the instrumentation and communication equipment had been
entirely removed. NIOT staff told SCIOFF that they hoped their
recently-begun campaign to educate fishermen on the importance to
public safety of maintaining the buoys would cut down on the need to
replace the expensive systems, and speed up the deployment process.

INCOIS' OTHER OCEAN INFORMATION PUT TO GOOD USE


8. (U) INCOIS conducts modeling to establish ocean forecasts which
are published on their website and used in several applications,
such as shipping route determination, oil spill monitoring, and
potential fishing zone identification. In one example, INCOIS
analysts use satellite imagery to identify areas fish are likely to
be found based on water temperature, chlorophyll concentrations, and
ocean current modeling. Three times a week during fishing season,
the coordinates and maps are circulated to fisherman by fax, e-mail,
internet, radio, and information kiosks and electric display boards
at ports. INCOIS staff provided anecdotal information that those
fishermen who use the information have a 30-70% reduction in search
time, resulting in lower operating expenses and a greater net
profit. They further claimed that the service does not promote
over-fishing, because it is aimed at smaller fishermen who spend the
extra time with their families rather than going on more fishing
trips.


9. (U) INCOIS monitors coral reef health at four locations along the
Indian coasts via satellite, and validates findings using
investigational surveys. They have used historical satellite
imagery to follow the progression of reef health in an effort to
focus conservations efforts, and have made the data and analyses
available on their web site.


10. (U) INCOIS is also attempting to combine information collected
from India's ocean monitoring programs with data obtained from other
international sources to create a one-stop, web-accessible database
that includes information, dating back to the 1990's, on sea level,
temperature, salinity, chemical composition, biological composition,
and meteorological conditions. Kumar indicated that not all
available datasets had been incorporated yet, as accurate mapping of
the disparate data sources into a single database file was taking
longer than expected. (NOTE: INCOIS scientists told SCIOFF that
their data had some gaps as they were required to shut down sensors
during Indian naval exercises and operations. END NOTE.)


NEW DELHI 00003104 003.2 OF 003


NIOT EXPERIMENTS MOVING FORWARD


11. (U) NIOT pursues research and development, but not production,
for the MoES, the Indian Navy, the Department of Science and
Technology and industrial clients, according to Dr. Rajendran.
Projects highlighted by NIOT staff during the tour include:

-- An unmanned deep-sea mining vehicle that completed its first
successful deep-water test in October 2008. Additional adjustments
would be made by NIOT engineers before its next trial run later this
year. (NOTE: It was not clear to SCIOFF whether this vehicle was an
extension of the remotely-operable vehicle developed jointly,
beginning in 2006, by NIOT and the Experimental Design Bureau of
Oceanological Engineering of the Russian Academy of Sciences,
Moscow. END NOTE.)

-- Establishment and successful operation of a low temperature
thermal desalination plant at Kavaratti Island with a capacity of
100,000 liters per day. The design will go into production under
commercial contract at other islands in the near future.

-- Operation of two research vessels to support buoy operations and
obtain research data on NIOT projects.

-- Development and construction at NIOT of an acoustic test
facility, as well as a hyperbaric test facility suitable for
large-scale equipment.

MULFORD