BOMB BLASTS SHAKE BHUTAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 000264

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/INS, DRL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/13/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL PINR PTER IN BT
SUBJECT: BOMB BLASTS SHAKE BHUTAN

Classified By: PolCouns Ted Osius for reasons 1.4 (B,D)

(C) 1. Summary: On January 20, four bombs detonated in four
separate districts in Bhutan, including in the capital,
Thimphu. No deaths were reported but a woman was injured and
property damaged. The blasts occurred days after the
Election Commission of Bhutan (ECB) announced National
Assembly polls would be held on March 24, marking Bhutan's
shift from absolute to constitutional monarchy. The United
Revolutionary Front of Bhutan (URFB),an organization formed
in April 2007, claimed responsibility for the blasts in an
email. However, neither the press nor the Bhutanese Embassy
have confirmed this claim. Many theories about the URFB are
brewing but very little is actually known about this new
group except that it appears to support the cause of
Bhutanese refugees in Nepal. End Summary.

Four Bombs Detonate, Fifth Found
--------------


2. (SBU) On January 20, four bomb blasts across the southern
and central regions of Bhutan took place over the span of
three hours between 11 AM and 2 PM (local time). The first
blast occurred near a vegetable market in the Samste
district, bordering the Indian states of Sikkim and West
Bengal. The second bomb exploded in the capital, Thimphu,
shattering window panes and unnerving shopkeepers and
residents. The third blast occurred in Chukha district, also
bordering West Bengal, where ricocheting splinters wounded a
woman in the leg. The fourth took place in Dagana in
southwest Bhutan. Police found a fifth explosive device in
Dagana which did not detonate. Overall damage included one
injured and property damage to shops and businesses, but no
deaths.

Taking Responsibility
--------------


3. (C) The Royal Bhutan Police suspect the explosions are
linked to one of three well-known insurgent organizations
based in Nepal -- the Bhutan Tigers Force (BTF),the Bhutan
Maoists Party (BMP),and the Communist Party of Bhutan (CPB).
However, Washington agencies and Embassy have seen an email
dated January 21 from the United Revolutionary Front of
Bhutan (URFB) taking responsibility for the bomb blasts.
When asked about the URFB, officials from the Royal Bhutanese
Embassy pointed to the usual suspects identified by the Royal
Bhutan Police and offered no extra comment on the URFB. On
January 23, Bhutan national newspaper Kuensel's Editor in
Chief Kinley Dorji told Poloff that he believed Bhutanese
officials received correspondence from the URFB claiming it
was behind the blasts. However, he noted that no one in
Bhutan has heard of this group before.

Who is the URFB?
--------------


4. (SBU) According to the email correspondence and the URFB
website (http://urfb.org/home/index.php),the organization
formed in April 2007. In its email declaration in which it
took responsibility for the bombing, the URFB denounced the
Bhutanese election as being unfair and a farce of democracy.
They claimed the disqualification of the Bhutan People's
United Party (BPUP) is a ploy to protect the King's
"hegemonic" rule over the country through two "puppet"
political parties that are both under his control. The URFB,
while recognizing the "magnanimous gesture" of the U.S. and
other countries offering aid and the option of resettlement
to Bhutanese refugees in camps in Nepal, asserted that the
resettlement proposals allow and "encourage a despot to evict
the people who pose a challenge to its authority and power."
The Front urged India to take a stand against Bhutan and
demanded that human rights, citizenship rights, political
rights and the problem of Bhutanese refugees in Nepal must be
resolved before elections can take place. The URFB vowed to
fight through armed struggle and abolish what it describes as

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an autocratic power in order to establish a people's
democracy.

More Maoist Trouble
--------------


5. (C) Dr. Ajai Sahni, a counter-terrorism expert at the
Institute for Conflict Management in Delhi, believes the
incidents are the handiwork of Maoists. He told Poloffs that
he had not heard about the URFB before and knew very little
about the group. However, he speculated that the URFB might
be a faction of one of the three known groups (CPB, BTF, and
BMP),a unification of the three known groups operating under
a new name, or a completely new operation. Sahni claimed he
has been expecting an incident of violence in Bhutan and
pointed to the indigenous Maoists whom he indicated are
backed by both the Indian and Nepali Maoists. He related
that Nepali and Indian Maoists helped form the Bhutan Maoist
Party. However Indian Maoists now have decreased their
engagement with Bhutanese Maoists. He asserted that while
the attacks have been of low intensity with no fatalities,
the point behind the bombings is aimed at frightening people
and recruiting more members through a display of power. On
whether the bomb blasts could be linked to the United
Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA),which the fourth King
physically expelled from Bhutan in December 2003, Sahni said
that if a connection does not exist now, it will in the near
future. He also alleged that ULFA has strong connections
with Nepali Maoists and is operating transitional training
camps in Nepal.


6. (C) Sahni expressed confidence in the Bhutanese capacity
to contain disruptive elements currently within the country.
As supporting evidence, he alluded to the arrest and
sentencing of 30 people in May 2007 after a series of
bombings in Bhutan last year.

Comment: Theories Abound
--------------


7. (C) Bhutanese officials have repeatedly expressed concern
to Emboffs regarding violent anti-monarchy organizations
based in Nepal trying to disrupt the election process and the
transition to democracy. These organizations, including the
BTF, BMP, and CPB have all threatened to derail the upcoming
democratic process in Bhutan. Not much is known about the
URFB at this time. However, given the geographic location of
the blasts (the southern region of Bhutan),some probable
theories could include:

--they are another Nepal-based organization with support from
Nepali Maoists and connected to the CPB, BTF, and MPB and the
Bhutanese refugees of Nepali-origin;
--the proximity to the Indian border, and ULFA's previous but
short-lived use of Bhutan in the past as a base for
operations, also suggests the ULFA could be providing support
to the URFB in hopes of regaining control of old ULFA bases;
or
--someone with no connections to any established, known group
has jumped into the mix.


8. (C) Though the National Council elections in December 2007
went off without a hitch, Bhutan must take appropriate
security measures to ensure a similarly smooth political
exercise in March 2008. End Comment.


9. (U) This cable was coordinated with Kathmandu and Kolkata.
MULFORD