ELECTION COURT CONFIRMS GOVERNMENT WIN AFTER

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NASSAU 000146

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV BF
SUBJECT: ELECTION COURT CONFIRMS GOVERNMENT WIN AFTER
RECOUNT

REF: NASSAU 56

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SUMMARY
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1. (U) The first of three legal challenges to results of the
May 2007 elections was decided January 21 with a recount
confirming the victory of the governing FNM party's
candidate. The decision leaves the Ingraham government with
an unassailable majority and scuppers any hopes the
opposition PLP may have harbored of reversing the
parliamentary balance in election court. The court accepted
evidence that 110 people had voted illegally and ordered a
"scrutiny" of remaining valid ballots to determine the
result. Rather than providing the opposition with a
post-election victory, the outcome of the court case has
instead focused attention on the impact of the previous
government's last-minute changes to constituency boundaries
on the eve of elections. Top government officials blamed the
late changes for confusion in the voter registration process
and accused the previous government of incompetence and
ill-intentions.

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GOVERNMENT WINS COURT CASE
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2. (U) The first of three legal challenges to results of the
May 2007 parliamentary races was decided January 21 after a
new recount confirmed the victory of the governing Free
National Movement's (FNM) candidate Byran Woodside, now
Minister of State for Youth and Sports. The recount
confirmed the original result in the Pinewood constituency in
Nassau, albeit by a smaller margin of 49 votes (down from 64
according to the original tally). During the court case,
both sides had contested a total of nearly 200 votes -- a
relatively large number in the small election districts in
The Bahamas. The election court accepted evidence that 110
people had voted illegally because they did not properly
satisfy residency requirements. They then threw out these
votes and ordered a "scrutiny" of ballots which ended with
confirmation of Woodside's win.


3. (U) The decision leaves the government with an
unassailable majority and dashes any hopes the opposition
Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) still had of reversing the
FNM's parliamentary majority in court, especially after the
shock resignation of an opposition MP on January 9 (see
reftel). The parliamentary balance remains 23-17 in favor of
the FNM, with a single independent. Furthermore, the court
result casts into doubt not only the political utility but
the wisdom of pursuing the remaining two cases pending before
election courts. Victories in the remaining two cases would
still leave the FNM ahead 21-19-1, and likely cast further
negative light on the previous government's poor performance
in organizing the election.

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ANOTHER BLOW TO OPPOSITION
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4. (U) Rather than providing the opposition with a
post-election victory, the Pinewood constituency election
court decision has instead focused renewed public attention
on the then-governing PLP's wide-ranging, last-minute
constituency boundary changes (read: gerrymandering). The
changes are seen by some, certainly in the current
government, to have introduced confusion and contributed to
the voter registration problems identified in the election
court proceedings. In their written ruling, justices stated
that the parliamentary commissioner failed to ensure the
integrity of the registration process and concluded: "This
case exposed the most egregious failures in the parliamentary
system."


5. (U) Elated FNM supporters held a victory rally on January
24, providing the Prime Minister, Hubert Ingraham, a soapbox
to attack his predecessor and leader of the opposition, Perry
Christie, for another instance of apparent government
bungling. The Prime Minister blamed official "ineptitude,
incompetence and late boundary changes" for disenfranchising
Bahamians in the May 2007 election and contributing to the
post-election controversies. He also strongly insinuated
that the move was calculated to improve the incumbent party's
chances at the polls, a move which clearly boomeranged to
hurt the PLP.

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COMMENT
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6. (SBU) The FNM now has nothing left to feel anxious about
in the election court challenges, which become technical
disputes without ramifications beyond the constituencies and
candidates concerned, leaving the government to concentrate
on tackling key domestic and bilateral issues. The PLP, on
the other hand, has another -- and again largely
self-inflicted -- wound to nurse ahead of its planned
February convention. Notably, opposition leader Christie
admitted privately to DCM that the court challenges and
registration problems were a blemish on his administration,
and a source of some embarrassment as any alleged
irregularities occurred on the PLP watch. His attitude does
nothing to dispel the impression that pre-election
maneuverings, apparently designed to magnify the advantages
of incumbency, have indeed backfired badly on the PLP.
SIEGEL