CORRECTED COPY: KENYA'S POLITICAL PROCESS AND U.S.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 NAIROBI 000798

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

FOR S, D, P, G, DRL, AND AF A/S FRAZER FROM THE AMBASSADOR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/20/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM ASEC KE
SUBJECT: CORRECTED COPY: KENYA'S POLITICAL PROCESS AND U.S.
ENGAGEMENT

REF: A. NAIROBI 706 (MT. ELGON VIOLENCE)

B. NAIROBI 786 (ENACTING THE COALITION GOVT.)

C. NAIROBI 762 (SAFARICOM IPO)

D. NAIROBI 680 (AMBASSADOR,S SPEECH)

E. NAIROBI 650 (REQUEST FOR $25 MILLION)

F. NAIROBI 729 (REQUEST FOR $75 MILLION)

G. NAIROBI 687 (PARLIAMENT OPENS)

H. NAIROBI 641 (POLITICAL ACCORD AND US ENGAGEMENT)
AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: Ambassador Ranneberger for reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (SBU) Summary. Since the signing of the political accord
on February 28, President Kibaki and Raila Odinga have sent
positive signals and maintained the momentum for peace and
political reconciliation generated by the February 28th
landmark power-sharing accord. Odinga will likely be sworn
in as prime minister next week, with the cabinet named at
about the same time. Kenyans are calm and hopeful. We
continue to receive widespread expressions of appreciation
for the U.S. role in helping resolve the crisis. End summary.


2. (U) This message reports on the state of play and
delineates actions we are taking and that the U.S. can take
to support implementation of the accord and help Kenya emerge
stronger from the crisis.

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Leaders Send Positive Signals
--------------


3. (SBU) Both President Kibaki and Raila Odinga are
demonstrating a strong commitment to implement the political
accord signed on February 28th. The media has focused
prominently on their regular meetings aimed at maintaining
momentum. Since the signing, Kibaki and his team have been
referring to Odinga as the "prime minister-designate," even
though the implementing legislation had not yet been passed
by Parliament. Key members of their respective teams,
including the notable hardliners on both sides (like Minister
of Justice Martha Karua and the ODM's William Ruto),have
been at pains to demonstrate support for the accord. Each
side has made clear to us that it is pleased by the evident
commitment of the other to implement the letter and spirit of
the deal. Media commentary regarding the accord has been
very positive, as have the comments by key civil society
organizations and ordinary Kenyans. There has been no
violence related to the power-sharing deal. (Note: As
explained ref A, the fighting over land in Mt. Elgon which
began in 2006 continues unabated. Also, Kenya's tradition of
cattle rustling ) often violent ) continues in some parts
of the country. Several recent localized incidents (with
casualties) have been widely reported. End note.)

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Implementation of the Accord
--------------


4. (U) Parliament on March 18th passed legislation amending
the constitution to create the positions of prime minister
and two deputy prime ministers (see ref B). President Kibaki
and Odinga, both MPs, participated in the friendly and
constructive debate on the bill, and set a very positive
tone. It was the first time in Kenya's history that a
sitting president participated in a parliamentary debate.


5. (C) It is expected that Odinga will be sworn in as prime
minister next week, and that the composition of the cabinet
will be announced at that time. Odinga has told us he will
name his running mate Musalia Mudavadi to be one of the two
deputy prime ministers. Under the new law, the minority
coalition partner, PNU, names the other deputy prime
minister. There is jockeying among the Kibaki team regarding
who will be appointed (key candidates are Karua, Minister of
Local Government Uhuru Kenyatta, and Minister of Internal
Security George Saitoti).


6. (SBU) Formation of the coalition government is one among
a number of steps needed to implement the accord. The other
two main areas of implementation include formation of three
commissions (on election irregularities; on election

NAIROBI 00000798 002 OF 004


violence; and on truth, justice, and reconciliation),and
moving ahead with the institutional reform agenda
(constitutional, electoral, land, and related issues). The
two sides are still meeting to put the finishing touches on
the exact parameters of the reform agenda. The roadmap for
specific reforms will take shape in discussions with the
Parliament and civil society following formation of the
coalition government. As reported septel, the commission on
electoral irregularities has been named (and the head of it,
South African judge Johann Kriegler arrived in Nairobi on
March 19 to begin work). The commission on post-election
violence has not yet been formed. The government has
approached donors for assistance in the setting up of the
truth, justice, and reconciliation commission.


7. (C) Former Nigerian Foreign Minister Oluyemi Adeniji, who
Annan asked to work with the parties following his departure,
has been ably chairing the continuing talks on the reform
agenda. Annan is remaining in touch with Kibaki and Odinga,
and has made clear that he has not abandoned the process. To
continue this process, formation of a formal "Secretariat of
Eminent Persons" with AU and UN personnel, as well as outside
experts, will follow the implementation of the coalition
accord. The U.S. and other donors are providing financial
support for this mechanism.


8. (SBU) One very positive sign of the parties' commitment
to the accord is their cooperation on a unified approach to
deal with the negative impact of the crisis and to get the
economy back on track. On March 14, Odinga dropped his
earlier opposition and signaled his support for the March 28
launch of the Safaricom initial public offering, which will
provide the GOK with $770 million in badly needed cash for
the budget (ref C).


9. (U) Kibaki and Odinga jointly chaired a meeting with
donors and international financial institutions on March 17.
As reported septel, they appealed for approximately $480
million in support. At the meeting I circulated a paper
laying out the humanitarian assistance that we are providing
and making clear our commitment of $25 million in new
assistance. The strong signal of U.S. support was very
well-received.

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U.S. Leadership and Approach
--------------


10. (U) We continue to receive messages from Kenyans across
the political, social, economic, and ethnic spectrum
expressing heartfelt appreciation for the decisive role that
the U.S. played in helping to resolve the crisis. U.S. stock
in Kenya has never been higher but, concomitantly,
expectations for our continued engagement on recovery efforts
are also high. Kenyans appreciate that the U.S. is already
their largest bilateral partner, and look to our friendship
as key in ensuring the accord stays on track.


11. (SBU) With this in mind, in a major speech on March 8, I
delineated U.S. views on the way forward (ref D). I am
continuing to work the media, including vernacular radio
stations, to emphasize our positive view of the accord, our
commitment to remain engaged, and our optimism about the
country's future. I have emphasized to Kibaki and Odinga the
need to work closely with civil society and the private
sector to carry out the reform agenda in an inclusive manner.
I and members of the Mission team are also visiting affected
areas of the country to support reconciliation and
humanitarian efforts.


12. (SBU) Among other areas, our approach is focused on the
following:

-- We are supporting implementation of the accord,
particularly with respect to strengthening good governance.
With timely support from USAID's Office of Transition
Initiatives, we will expand our support for Parliament. This
will include strengthening the Speaker's Office, digitizing
records, and facilitating live media coverage of
parliamentary debates in order to increase transparency and
accountability. We plan to engage with Odinga to determine

NAIROBI 00000798 003 OF 004


how we can help make the Prime Minister's Office effective.
We have already provided $1 million to support the
"Secretariat of Eminent Persons" to monitor implementation.

-- We are working with the government, civil society, and
other donors to determine support needs for the three
commissions envisioned in the accord.

-- We are supporting reconciliation and conflict resolution.
The bolstering of USAID's democracy and governance funds is
enabling us to expand support for grassroots reconciliation
efforts, particularly in hard hit Rift Valley Province. We
have sought additional support from the Office of Transition
Initiatives that will enable us to expand efforts through
community and vernacular radio stations.

-- We have developed an integrated Mission approach to assist
in the return of displaced persons to their homes, and
resumption of agricultural and small business livelihoods.
This includes pulling together all USG resources in a
comprehensive effort. We are working to identify several
specific areas where people can be returned safely in Rift
Valley. While it will take many months, if not years, for
conditions to permit return of many of the displaced (some of
whom have been IDPs since fleeing violence during Kenya's
1992 and 1997 elections),the rapid return of even a small
number of persons will send a positive message to all
Kenyans. Working with implementing partners and the
government, we will supply funding for the displaced to
acquire essential items to return to their homes (not their
"ancestral lands") and rebuild their lives. Civic action,
health, micro-enterprise, agricultural, and other Mission
programs will assist returns, including reconciliation
efforts between communities. Returns on a limited scale will
only be carried out when we, implementing partners, and the
government deem that the groundwork has been laid through
effective reconciliation efforts, and we will ensure that
appropriate security is in place. We hope that these first
returns can begin within the next 2-3 weeks.

-- We are continuing to provide humanitarian assistance on an
urgent basis, including upgrades to IDP camps in preparation
for the impending rainy season.

-- Once the coalition government is in place, we plan to
brief PM Odinga and relevant ministers on the U.S.-Kenyan
partnership, and to lay out key priorities for action
(including legislative priorities like
anti-money-laundering). We will provide similar briefings to
Members of Parliament.

-- We have requested the Department's clearance to end
authorized departure of CDC and MRU personnel from Kisumu and
Kericho, and to revise the language in the travel advisory to
reflect changed conditions.

-- We are working with relevant government ministries and the
private sector (including the American Chamber of Commerce)
to encourage the return of tourism and to intensify support
for U.S. investment.

-- We are working with Peace Corps to begin the return of
volunteers during April and May.

-- Other steps to demonstrate engagement with the new
coalition government may include a U.S. naval ship visit to
Mombasa in early May.

-- We have presented to the Department proposals for use of
the $25 million in new support, and a proposal for an
additional $75 million for FY09 (refs E and F).

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An Historic Opportunity
--------------


13. (SBU) This strong U.S. leadership will be further
bolstered as we influence donors and international financial
institutions (IFIs) to provide appropriate support for Kenya.
At the March 17th donor meeting chaired by Kibaki and
Odinga, there were no specific commitments (beyond ours of

NAIROBI 00000798 004 OF 004


$25 million). However, there was discussion about holding a
donor meeting in Kenya during the late April-early May
timeframe. The British have expressed some interest in
hosting a separate private sector investment conference in
London. Commitment of an additional $75 million for FY09,
coupled with the $25 million already committed, will enhance
our leverage with the donor community and IFIs.


14. (SBU) The Kenyan economy was not irrevocably damaged
during the crisis, and has the potential to bounce back
quickly. Assisting this process will reinforce the coalition
government and provide a positive context for the carrying
out of the reform agenda. The strong positive signals that
Kibaki and Odinga have been sending have greatly reassured
the Kenyan people. While tensions persist in some of the
areas hardest hit by the post-election violence, there is a
broad feeling that the country has returned to normal and
that the political accord holds the promise of a bright
future. We and Kenyans understand that implementing the
reform agenda will not be an easy matter, and that the glow
of the coalition honeymoon will fade. There is, however, a
palpable sense of optimism, and the U.S. role is very much
seen as part of the reason for that. The challenge facing us
is to help the Kenyan people exploit the historic opportunity
before them and, in so doing, to demonstrate Kenya's recovery
as a model of how democracies can deal effectively with even
the most profound crises.


RANNEBERGER