KENYAN TALKS MOVE FORWARD

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 000515

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

FOR THE SECRETARY AND A/S FRAZER FROM THE AMBASSADOR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/20/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM KE
SUBJECT: KENYAN TALKS MOVE FORWARD

REF: NAIROBI 486 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: Ambassador Michael Ranneberger for reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (SBU) Summary. The Secretary's February 18 visit has
propelled the talks forward. Discussion of the structure of
a coalition government has begun. However, Raila Odinga
remains concerned that the government is seeking a minimalist
outcome and threatened to resume mass action within a week if
there is not significant progress in the negotations. End
summary.


2. (C) Developments during February 19-20 confirm that the
Secretary's visit February 18 had a major impact in moving

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the Kenyan electoral crisis talks forward. While the talks
had made progress, they were, at the point of the Secretary's
visit, stalled over discussion of the governance structure.
The talks had reached agreements on joint steps to end
violence, facilitation of humanitarian relief, and agreement
to an independent commission to investigate electoral
irregularities. However, the two sides were fundamentally
apart over the issue of forming a coalition government.


3. (C) Following the Secretary's visit and the firm message
she delivered on the need to form a coalition government
(reported septels),the talks advanced. On February 19 the
two sides began discussion of modalities for a coalition.
Two sub-committees have been formed. One is discussing the
roles and responsibilities of the President, Vice President,
and the position of Prime Minister that will be established,
and the composition of the cabinet. The other sub-committee
is examining the appropriate legal and constitutional means
to put in place the coalition structure.


4. (C) Kofi Annan told me the evening of February 19 that he
met with President Kibaki earlier that day to follow-up on
the Secretary's visit and to push for movement in the talks.
Annan met Odinga the afternoon of February 18. Annan said
that he is satisfied with the progress being made. He said
that the Secretary's visit had a decisive impact and again
expressed great appreciation.


5. (C) Following Annan's meeting with Kibaki, the President
issued a statement reaffirming his support of the mediation
process. He also stated that he supports a comprehensive
review of the constitution within twelve months. Kibaki
reportedly told the government's Members of Parliament on
February 19 that he supports the concept of a "grand
coalition," but he has not stated this publicly. Odinga told
me late on the 19th that he believes the government still
wants to achieve a minimalist solution which will seek to
severely limit his role as prime minister, and to maintain
Kibaki's total control over all cabinet appointments. In an
apparent attempt to move Kibaki off of this position, ODM
announced at a press conference on February 20 that it would
stage mass protests if there has not been substantial
progress in the negotiations within one week.


6. (C) The very positive and extensive media coverage of the
Secretary's visit (reported septel) reflects the perception

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of the Kenyan people that U.S. involvement is crucial to
achieve a political solution to the crisis.


7. (C) I am following up the Secretary's visit through
intensive meetings with members of both negotiating teams,
and with key Parliamentarians and others who are in a
position to influence the positions of the two sides. Mutula
Kilonzo -- the constitutional lawyer on the government's
negotiating team who talked at length during the Secretary's
meeting with Kibaki )- told me the evening of February 19
that he is determined achieve success in the talks through
agreement to form a coalition government. He confirmed that
Martha Karua, the Minister of Justice and head of the
negotiating team, remains difficult, but he believes her
position is slowly evolving in response to pressure.


8. (C) While the talks are moving forward, much heavy
lifting remains to be done in order to put together a
coalition structure acceptable to both sides. Annan made
clear that he views the U.S. role as vital to achieving a
successful outcome.

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RANNEBERGER