TALKS FOCUS INTENSIVELY ON POLITICAL ISSUES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NAIROBI 000486

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

FOR S, D, P, G, R, DS, DRL, AND AF A/S FRAZER FROM THE
AMBASSADOR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/14/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KE
SUBJECT: TALKS FOCUS INTENSIVELY ON POLITICAL ISSUES

REF: A. NAIROBI 444

B. NAIROBI 419 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: Ambassador Michael Ranneberger for reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (SBU) Summary. Since February 11 the two sides have been
engaged in intensive and relatively constructive discussions
of modalities for a political solution. Off-site discussions
hosted by Annan sincQFebruary 12 adjourned the afternoon of
February 14 without an agreement. The talks are expected to
resume next week, giving both teams time to consult with
their principals. Annan briefed the Parliament, making clear
the historic role the members will have to play in carrying
out legal and constitutional reforms that may be needed to
implement a political solution. Annan has brought in a
German expert to brief on the German experience in assembling
a "grand coalition." End summary.

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Talks Move to Off-Site; Adjourned Without Agreement
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2. (U) Per ref A, the talks resumed on February 11 to focus
on modalities for a political solution. Much of the day was,
however, consumed with preparations by the two sides for the
briefing of Parliament scheduled by Annan for February 12.


3. (U) Following Annan's briefing of Members of Parliament,
he took the two sides to an off-site at a national park
lodge. Those talks adjourned on February 14 without an
agreement. Talks are expected to resume early next week,
giving the teams some time to consult with their principals.


4. (SBU) Both sides started the political discussions having
climbed down from their initial positions, but still far
apart. The government has accepted the need for a political
settlement. The ODM is no longer calling for a recount or a
new election in the short-term. The ODM has put on the table
the concept of a power-sharing arrangement involving creation
of the position of executive prime minister, fifty percent
sharing of government ministries and key positions, and
creation of an interim government while institutional reforms
are carried out ) at the end of which there could be new
elections. The government has indicated openness to giving
some ODM members ministerial portfolios, but has made clear
its preference is for the ODM to remain as the official
opposition, with the two sides working together to carry out
institutional reform. During an off-the-record discussion at
the off-site, Karua said the government would be willing to
consider 50/50 division of ministries, but not with a strong
executive prime minister position. There is an as yet
unconfirmed report that the government has indicated
willingness to consider new elections within two years once
reforms are carried out.


5. (SBU) The government is insisting that any political
solution must be within the legal and constitutional
framework. This does not, however, rule anything out, since
the Parliament can likely constitute itself as a constituent
assembly to make any constitutional changes necessary to
accommodate a power-sharing arrangement (as would be
necessary to establish the position of an executive prime
minister, for example).

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Odinga's Views
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6. (C) Odinga and I discussed the state of play early on
February 14, before it was learned that the talks would
adjourn. He confirmed that the ODM position is to initiate a
power-sharing arrangement under which he would be executive
prime minister. This, Odinga stressed, is crucial in order
to limit the power of the presidency. Limiting the power of
the presidency, he explained, was one of the key objectives
contained in the original Bomas draft constitution, but those
provisions were taken out by the government before the
constitution draft was submitted to the national referendum
in 2005, resulting in rejection of the draft. Odinga
emphasized to me his view that such a parliamentary system
would help limit and control the role of ethnicity in

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politics. Odinga has ruled out taking the vice presidency
position, because the vice president is appointed by the
President and can be dismissed at any time. Odinga, who
spoke by phone with his team at the off-site negotiating
location while I was there, said there had been progress in
the talks. The government, he said, has accepted the
principle of separating the role of head of state from the
role of head of government. Odinga was relatively upbeat and
expressed great appreciation for U.S. support for the Annan
process.

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Annan Briefs Parliament
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7. (U) An unexpected ruckus resulted from Annan's briefing
of the Parliament, highlighting sensitivities on the
government side. The Speaker opened the session by
emphasizing Parliament's readiness to support a political
settlement. He indicated that Members of Parliament are
working together across party lines to visit areas affected
by violence in order to urge peace and reconciliation. Graca
Machel said Kenyans must "redefine the common ground where
every Kenyan has a sense of belonging." She said Parliament
has an historic responsibility to help support a solution,
including any necessary legal or constitutional changes.
Annan stressed that the two sides have agreed on the need for
a political solution. He also said the two sides have agreed
to establish an independent review commission to investigate
all aspects of the electoral process and to make
recommendations for comprehensive electoral reform. He
commented that one possible solution would be a "grand
coalition" to carry out institutional reform. Annan
indicated he expected a resolution of the political issues
this week. Interestingly, according to press reports, the
influential Minister of Local Government, Uhuru Kenyatta,
commented to the press following the briefing for Parliament
that he supports formation of a grand coalition in order to
restore unity among Kenyans.


8. (U) Following the briefing, the head of the government's
negotiating team, Martha Karua, wrote a letter to Annan
stating: "My team is alarmed at some serious inaccurate
statements made by Your Excellency at the briefing of
parliamentarians today. Namely you stated that the dialogue
team had agreed to have a transitional government for two
years after which we shall hold presidential elections which
position has not been discussed or agreed upon." At the same
time, 75 government and pro-government parliamentarians
issued a statement that "the government has not given its
mediation team authority to discuss issues of transitional
government." The parliamentarians confirmed, however, that
the government supports comprehensive legal, constitutional
and institutional reforms.

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German Support
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9. (U) During his public statement to Parliament, carried
live by the media, Annan never referred to the two-year
transitional period and possible new elections, but his
reference to a "grand coalition" does reflect his thinking on
the direction he would like the talks to take. At Annan's
request, a German expert has been here during the past
several days to discuss the German experience in forming such
a coalition.

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Comment
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10. (C) Odinga's participation in a coalition government as
executive prime minister would be a huge pill for Kibaki to
swallow. The off-site talks had been expected to continue
through the 15th; the unexpected return on the 14th was
apparently precipitated by the government side. Whether this
indicates a real need to consult further with Kibaki, a
desire to delay the talks, or unwillingness to move further
on power-sharing is not clear. Annan will likely issue a
statement on the 15th. He may be able to indicate some

NAIROBI 00000486 003 OF 003


progress, but the way in which the two sides characterize the
state of play to the media will also be important.
RANNEBERGER