KENYA'S ELECTORAL CRISIS: AT THE CRUNCH POINT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 000444

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

FOR S, D, P, G, R, DS, DRL, AND AF A/S FRAZER FROM THE
AMBASSADOR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/10/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KE
SUBJECT: KENYA'S ELECTORAL CRISIS: AT THE CRUNCH POINT

REF: A. NAIROBI 419

B. NAIROBI 380

C. NAIROBI 371

D. NAIROBI 370

Classified By: Ambassador Michael Ranneberger for reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (SBU) Summary. Following his meeting with Kibaki and
Odinga on February 9, Annan announced that the two sides had
agreed on the need for a political solution. The talks will
reconvene February 11 to discuss details. The two sides
remain far apart regarding what power-sharing should entail.
In a sign of progress, the ban on demonstrations has been
lifted. End summary.


2. (C) When the talks reconvene February 11 they will focus
on the central issue of power-sharing. The meeting between
Kibaki and Odinga which took place the afternoon of February
9 resulted in a major step forward: the government finally
agreed with the ODM that a political solution is needed to
resolve the current crisis and to address underlying
grievances through institutional reform. We understand Annan
made clear in the meeting that there must be a political
solution. He was not asking them to agree, but rather
informing them that the talks would proceed along those
lines. Kibaki, according to one well-placed source, argued
that a recount of the presidential electoral vote should be
considered. Annan replied that a credible recount is not
possible since all the relevant documents have not been
securely maintained.


3. (C) Annan has asked the two sides to arrive at the talks
on February 11 with specific proposals for power-sharing. It
seems likely that the ODM may put forward a proposal calling
for Odinga to become vice president or executive prime
minister (but the latter position would require
constitutional amendment),with fifty percent of all
ministerial and civil service positions going to the ODM.
The ODM proposal will almost certainly talk in terms of a
transitional government of 1-2 years that would oversee
institutional reform, following which there would be a new
presidential election. The government will likely put
forward something much more limited, perhaps offering a
limited number of cabinet positions (without Odinga entering
the government). The top people on each side have been
meeting with their teams throughout the weekend.


4. (C) Neither Kibaki nor Odinga commented publicly
following their meeting. Annan said that both sides realize
the serious nature of the problems facing Kenya and agree on
the need for unity and reconciliation. He also stated that
the two sides had agreed that "a political settlement is the
way forward." He expressed the hope that a deal would be
worked out early during the week of February 11. The talks
have been "constructive and cooperative," Annan said. Annan
stated that the meeting with Kibaki and Odinga was intended
to brief them. "I appealed to them to instruct their
delegations to get it (the political settlement) done."
Members of Annan,s support team told us that there is no
deal and no draft on the table, but that Annan is pleased
with the progress made in getting the two sides to move
beyond legal wrangling to accept the need for a political
solution. Following a meeting with the Ugandan Deputy Prime
Minister February 10, Kibaki expressed confidence that "a
sustainable solution to the current political situation would
be found." During the funeral February 9 of one of the
Members of Parliament who was killed, the ODM also noted
progress in the talks, but emphasized that there can be no
peace without justice and that the ODM will consult
supporters before agreeing to any deal.


5. (SBU) Kibaki and Odinga also agreed to the convening of
an informal session of Parliament (which is not in formal
session at this time) on February 12 to receive a briefing on
the talks. The session with Parliament is also intended to
give moderte parliamentarians on both sides an opportunity
to express support for a political solution, and to lay the
groundwork for Parliament's cooperation to support whatever
legal and constitutional changes may be necessary to
implement a political deal.

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6. (SBU) In another sign of progress, the government on
February 8 lifted the ban on public demonstrations.


7. (C) Comment. Agreement on the need for a political
solution is an important step forward, but the two sides have
dramatically different notions of what power-sharing should
entail. Annan used the meeting with Kibaki and Odinga to
push the ball forward. Our continued strong support will be
vital to achieving the goal. End comment.
RANNEBERGER