Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08NAIROBI357
2008-02-01 19:21:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Nairobi
Cable title:  

KENYA'S ELECTORAL CRISIS - PROCESS OF DIALOGUE

Tags:  PREL KE 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 NAIROBI 000357 

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/31/2018
TAGS: PREL KE
SUBJECT: KENYA'S ELECTORAL CRISIS - PROCESS OF DIALOGUE
MOVES SLOWLY FORWARD

REF: A. NAIROBI 356

B. NAIROBI 331

C. NAIROBI 330

D. NAIROBI 313

E. NAIROBI 312

F. NAIROBI 311

G. NAIROBI 281

H. NAIROBI 279

I. NAIROBI 240

J. NAIROBI 238

K. NAIROBI 237

L. NAIROBI 235

M. NAIROBI 234

N. NAIROBI 229

O. NAIROBI 227

P. NAIROBI 212

Q. NAIROBI 210

R. NAIROBI 209

S. NAIROBI 200

T. NAIROBI 199

U. NAIROBI 198

V. NAIROBI 197

W. NAIROBI 196

X. NAIROBI 192

Y. NAIROBI 190

Z. NAIROBI 187

Classified By: Ambassador Michael Ranneberger for reasons 1.4 (b,d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 NAIROBI 000357

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AMBASSADOR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/31/2018
TAGS: PREL KE
SUBJECT: KENYA'S ELECTORAL CRISIS - PROCESS OF DIALOGUE
MOVES SLOWLY FORWARD

REF: A. NAIROBI 356

B. NAIROBI 331

C. NAIROBI 330

D. NAIROBI 313

E. NAIROBI 312

F. NAIROBI 311

G. NAIROBI 281

H. NAIROBI 279

I. NAIROBI 240

J. NAIROBI 238

K. NAIROBI 237

L. NAIROBI 235

M. NAIROBI 234

N. NAIROBI 229

O. NAIROBI 227

P. NAIROBI 212

Q. NAIROBI 210

R. NAIROBI 209

S. NAIROBI 200

T. NAIROBI 199

U. NAIROBI 198

V. NAIROBI 197

W. NAIROBI 196

X. NAIROBI 192

Y. NAIROBI 190

Z. NAIROBI 187

Classified By: Ambassador Michael Ranneberger for reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (SBU) Summary: Kenyans welcomed the political dialogue
launched by Kofi Annan on January 29 as a desperately needed
step towards ending violence and achieving a resolution of
the crisis. Annan has chosen Cyril Ramaphosa as his chief
mediator. The visit of Ban Ki-moon provided support for the
mediation process. The continuing energetic efforts of civil
society, religious, and political leaders calling for peace,
dialogue, and reconciliation are positive. Although the two
sides are far apart in their views regarding power-sharing,
developments on February 1 indicate it may be possible to
achieve some early progress in the talks that, coupled with
these efforts by civil society and others, could generate
momentum to restore peace. Continued intensive U.S.
engagement is essential to achieve a political solution to
this crisis. In that regard, we remain engaged in high
profile contacts with a wide range of key players and we are
continuing public diplomacy efforts. Additional resources, as
requested in ref k, are needed to support U.S. efforts. End
Summary.

--------------
Dialogue Launched -- Some Progress
--------------


2. (C) With strong support from the U.S. and others, Kofi
Annan succeeded in launching a formal dialogue between
President Kibaki and Raila Odinga, and their teams, on
January 29. The meeting built on the initial discussion

between Kibaki and Odinga that Annan arranged on January 24.
A day or so before the talks convened, Annan gave both sides
a paper with the proposed modalities and agenda for the
dialogue (ref g). Although both sides came back with
proposed revisions, Annan forcefully insisted that the talks
convene even without prior agreement. In order to overcome
opposition sensitivities about holding talks in a central
government building, they were held at the Nairobi municipal
building, with the Speaker of the Parliament in attendance.


3. (U) At the opening of the talks, which was covered live by
the media, Kibaki, Odinga, and the Speaker made positive
statements. Annan made two key points: he appealed to Kibaki
and Odinga to exert leadership and act with urgency; and he
said the talks should be focused on both short-term and
long-term issues, with the short-term issues being resolved
within 4 weeks, and the long-term issues being resolved
within 1 year. &We are standing at the crossroads of
history,8 Odinga said. &The fabric of society and
government are torn.8 He thanked the international
community and Annan as mediator for responding to the crisis

NAIROBI 00000357 002 OF 005


so quickly. Odinga categorically condemned violence,
emphasizing that &no grievance justifies the killing of
innocent people or the exacting of revenge.8 Odinga said
that those who want to scuttle the dialogue are supporting
escalation of violence, but he highlighted his commitment to
shun violence. &Our appeal for peace is uncompromising and
unconditional,8 Odinga said. In a somewhat provocative
line, Odinga said &I seek to be president of all Kenyans8
and then made clear he considered the Annan-brokered talks to
be between the ODM and Party of National Unity ) not between
ODM and the government (i.e. making the point that he does
not consider Kibaki the legitimately elected president).
(Kibaki didn,t flinch.) &I will go the extra mile and
leave no stone unturned8 to achieve a political solution to
the crisis, Odinga pledged. Echoing Odinga, Kibaki then said
the &nation is at a crossroads; this is a defining moment to
take decisions to restore dignity and stability.8 &The
violence and conflict hurts me deeply,8 Kibaki said. He
said that all outstanding issues must be resolved peacefully
through dialogue. He condemned all acts of violence and
emphasized that the government will take stern measures to
enforce the rule of law. He pledged to bring to justice
those responsible for the murder of the Member of Parliament
which had occurred the previous evening. &We are gathered
here as patriots,8 Kibaki said &to take critical steps to
promote healing and reconciliation.8 He pledged his full
support for the dialogue. He welcomed Annan,s statement
that the talks must address underlying problems as well as
immediate issues. Kibaki announced that he has established a
national fund to mitigate the effects of the violence,
including supporting displaced persons and their eventual
safe return to their homes. The Speaker of Parliament closed
the opening session by making clear that the Parliament
supports the political dialogue and will pass any laws
necessary to implement the results. &The nation has
listened with relief to you; now walk the talk,8 he
concluded.


4. (SBU) The dialogue is being conducted by three
representaives on each side, with the eminent persons
facilitating. The government side includes Minister of
Justice and Constitutional Affairs Martha Karua, Mutula
Kilonzo, and Professor Ongeri. The ODM side includes Musalia
Mudavadi, William Ruto, and Sally Kosgei. The government
representatives are all top lawyers and reflect the
government,s insistence that whatever is worked out must be
within the legal and constitutional framework. The ODM side
includes three of its top political figures, reflecting its
contention that the dialogue must focus on political
solutions, not legal frameworks. The presence of reputed
hardliner Karua on the government team is matched by Ruto and
Kosgei on the ODM side, since both are considered hardliners.



5. (C) Since the public opening, the teams have met a couple
of times. Talks were adjourned yesterday in response to the
murder of yet another Member of Parliament (ref a),but
resumed today. Kofi Annan used the visit of the UNSYG today
to push for early progress. According to Raila Odinga, the
two sides have agreed on the modalities and agenda for the
talks, and have agreed on joint efforts to end violence.
Agreement on a joint plan to end violence is expected by
early Monday at the latest. (CNN has reported agreement on an
18 point plan for joint efforts to end violence. Odinga
confimed that this is largely done, but indicated some
fine-tuning remains to be finished). Odinga also expects
agreement soon on modalities for delivery of humanitarian
assistance. The atmospherics are positive. ODM sources say
they are &quite comfortable that this is a real venue for
talking about real issues in a productive manner.8


6. (C) The two sides will start the discussions on
power-sharing far apart. Kibaki and his team continue to
insist that the ODM use the courts to challenge electoral
results. They strenuously resist the idea of recounting
votes, a rerun, or formation of some sort of interim
government. Kibaki has privately made clear to me and others
that he cannot imagine working with Odinga in a coalition

NAIROBI 00000357 003 OF 005


government. Minister of Finance Amos Kimunya, one of the
government,s reputed &hardliners,8 was sounding somewhat
more moderate in a conversation with me on January 31. He
agreed on the need for some sort of political solution, and
focused on potential cooperation to work on constitutional,
electoral, and land reform. He maintained that a
power-sharing coalition will paralyze the government. He
agreed that the government has badly mishandled its public
affairs through hardline statements and by not having the
President be more outspoken in condemning violence. Minister
of Local Government Uhuru Kenyatta emphasized to me that
Kibaki is open to lots of potential solutions, including
fundamental reform of the constitution. He underscored the
need to enforce law and order, but said he favors lifting the
ban on demonstrations in order to create a more positive
climate for dialogue. Odinga told me on January 28 that he
will push for a forensic audit/re-tallying of the vote, or a
rerun or, if either of those prove untenable, formation of an
interim government to carry out necessary constitutional,
electoral, and land reforms, with a new election to take
place at some point. He made clear he could only contemplate
power-sharing as part of an interim government, not as part
of a full Kibaki five-year term.

--------------
Annan, Ramaphosa, and Ban Ki-moon
--------------


7. (C) Annan and the other eminent persons surprised many
skeptical Kenyans by getting dialogue underway so quickly.
They are, however, worried that, should he depart the process
may break down &and all hell break loose.8 We understand
that Annan is bringing in Cyril Ramaphosa as his chief
mediator. Annan would then plan to be present in Kenya as
needed, but he has assured both sides, us, and others that he
will remain intensively engaged.


8. (U) Coming on the heels of the UNSC discussion of the
situation in Kenya, the visit of UNSYG Ban Ki-moon today
served to bolster Annan,s efforts and to deliver strong
messages to both sides on the need to move the dialogue
process forward expeditiously and to achieve the results
delineated above.

--------------
Forces for Peace and Dialogue
--------------


9. (SBU) The Kenyan people deserve some of the credit for
getting the two sides to the table and for getting them to
focus urgently on ending violence. Through civil society,
religious groups, and the media, there has been a mounting
chorus of voices calling for peace, truth, and justice. It
is also clear from multiple sources that the reality of
violence threatening to spiral out of control finally
registered on Kibaki and Odinga. Finally, strong U.S.
pressure on them and support for Annan helped get the
dialogue launched.


10. (C) The Speaker of Parliament acknowledged this in a
meeting with the Ambassador on February 1. He expressed
great appreciation for U.S. efforts. The Speaker also
discussed his efforts to build support among Members of
Parliament (MPs) for peace and dialogue. A 24 member
steering committee has been formed to mobilize MPs to stop
violence. At least half the MPs ) notwithstanding security
concerns ) are now fanning out to their constituencies to
urge an end to violence and support for dialogue. (These
parliamentary efforts have also been featured in media
coverage, thus helping convey to the public a sense of broad
support for the process of dialogue.) The Speaker rightly
pointed out that the crux of the talks will be the question
of whether or not there will be some sort of agreement to an
interim government, as opposed to a deal which could still
address underlying issues but leave Kibaki in place for his
full term.


11. (C) Throughout this process, we have continued to reach

NAIROBI 00000357 004 OF 005


out intensively to a wide range of key players, including
civil society, religious figures, parliamentarians,
influential players on the government and ODM teams,
government ministers, and others. All this is aimed at
supporting efforts to achieve a political solution to the
ongoing crisis. These discussions have been too numerous
and extensive to report in detail. My meeting with the
Catholic Cardinal on January 31 reflected some of what has
been discussed with others. He called the U.S. role crucial
to keep the parties at the table to reach a real solution.
He recounted how he has had to manage ethnic divisions even
within church ranks, but also detailed his conversations with
Kibaki, Odinga, the Speaker, and others to press them to
engage in dialogue and to be more proactive to stop violence.
I and members of my team are in close touch with Bethel
Kipligat and retired General Sumbeiywo, veterans of Somalia
and Sudan negotiations respectively, who are heading a very
important umbrella non-governmental group formed to work for
peace and dialogue. We have offered to help fund their
activities and are waiting for their proposal. We are also
in close touch with, among many others, a key
non-governmental organization in the Rift Valley (the
epicenter of the violence) and are considering a proposal
from them to foster dialogue. In addition to myself, these
outreach efforts are being worked in a coordinated effort by
Mission elements including USAID, public affairs, the MIST
team, and the political and economic sections. Our
humanitarian assistance efforts also include elements to
promote dialogue and reconciliation.

--------------
Our Media Outreach
--------------


12. (U) At the same time, I have continued intensive media
work. The extremely positive feedback we are receiving
confirms the widespread view that continued intense U.S.
engagement is essential to help Kenya resolve its crisis.
During an interview this week on a Kikuyu vernacular station,
initial calls questioned how I could urge that people not
take revenge after what had happened to Kikuyus in the Rift
Valley. After responding firmly to these, I challenged
listeners who favored peace to make themselves heard. In the
dozens of calls that then came in while I was there and
later, people emphasized their commitment to ending violence.
This and my participation in numerous other radio shows have
provided opportunities for frank dialogue with the Kenyan
people about the current situation. During a prime-time
hour-long television interview the evening of January 31, I
discussed U.S. views in detail, appealed for peace,
emphasized the need to give time for the political dialogue
to achieve results, made clear the need to hold accountable
those responsible for violence (and U.S. willingness to use
visa restrictions in that regard),and expressed a positive
view that Kenya will emerge from this crisis a stronger
democracy and society.

--------------
Violence
--------------


13. (C) The initiation of the political dialogue has helped
calm the violence, but the potential for it to erupt again
remains very real. The calls for peace by MPs, as well as
religious, civil society, and political leaders are having an
impact, and the apparent agreement in the talks to work
together to end violence will add momentum to efforts to stop
violence. The violence which occurred in Navaisha and Nakuru
last weekend (ref f) demonstrated the sinister role being
played by those seeking to fuel unrest. Although precise
evidence is hard to come by, many observers and a number of
reports we have received indicate that influential Kikuyus
are funding youth ) and the Kikuyu Mungiki criminal
organization ) to perpetrate violence. In addition to what
occurred in Navaisha and Nakuru, Kikuyus have been forcing
non-Kikuyus out of Central Province (the Kikuyu heartland).
Kikuyu youth and/or Mungiki have been going into some
neighborhoods of Nairobi telling non-Kikuyus they must move

NAIROBI 00000357 005 OF 005


out of Kikuyu neighborhoods. I have emphasized to Minister
of Security Saitoti our concerns about these apparent revenge
attacks and intimidation. He agreed on the serious need to
stop this, but whether and how the government will do this
remains to be seen. (It is worth noting that last year the
government did crack down on the Mungiki when it launched a
crime wave in Nairobi.) While the greatest concern at this
time is these revenge activities, it is not yet clear whether
key figures connected to the ODM have stopped their support
for anti-Kikuyu activities in Rift Valley. In addition to
violence flaring through activities funded by key
individuals, tensions are such that violence will also erupt
in response to specific situations, as happened after the
killing of the second ODM Member of Parliament by a policeman.


14. (C) In addition to insisting that the government protect
all Kenyans and bring to justice those responsible for
perpetrating and supporting violence, we have publicly and
privately made clear our intention to use appropriate
authorities to restrict visas for those involved in violent
activities. Given the personal, educational, and business
relationships that most senior Kenyans have with the U.S.,
this is a threat that has alread registered an impact, given
calls we have received from a number of individuals. As a
first step, we have identified a number of persons for
inclusion in the visa lookout system.


15. (C) We understand that the UN Human Rights Commission has
asked to send a fact-finding mission to Kenya to investigate
the violence.

--------------
Comment
--------------


16. (U) Although tensions remain very high, the political
dialogue that is underway and the apparent agreement to work
together to end violence will create momentum to restore
peace. The progress in the talks will complement the
impressive efforts being undertaken by civil society,
religious, and political leaders. The Kenyan people will
continue to make their voices heard. All of this, as well as
underlying strengths of this country that I have delineated
in previous messages, give me reason to be hopeful. However,
only the first steps have been taken on what will be a long
road to achieve a political solution and lasting peace. If
we have heard one concerted message from the Kenyan people,
it is that intensive U.S. engagement is vital to help Kenyans
find a way forward to enable their country to emerge from
this crisis a stronger democracy and society.
RANNEBERGER