Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08NAIROBI281
2008-01-25 11:44:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Nairobi
Cable title:  

KIBAKI-ODINGA TAKE FIRST STEP TOWARD DIALOGUE

Tags:  PREL PGOV KDEM KE 
pdf how-to read a cable
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NAIROBI 000281 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

FOR S, D, P, G, R, DS, DRL, AND AF/AS FRAZER FROM THE
AMBASSADOR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/25/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM KE
SUBJECT: KIBAKI-ODINGA TAKE FIRST STEP TOWARD DIALOGUE

REF: A. NAIROBI 278


B. NAIROBI 277

C. NAIROBI 245

D. NAIROBI 240

E. NAIROBI 239

F. NAIROBI 236

G. NAIROBI 200

H. NAIROBI 192

Classified By: Ambassador Ranneberger, reasons 1.4 (b,d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NAIROBI 000281

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

FOR S, D, P, G, R, DS, DRL, AND AF/AS FRAZER FROM THE
AMBASSADOR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/25/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM KE
SUBJECT: KIBAKI-ODINGA TAKE FIRST STEP TOWARD DIALOGUE

REF: A. NAIROBI 278


B. NAIROBI 277

C. NAIROBI 245

D. NAIROBI 240

E. NAIROBI 239

F. NAIROBI 236

G. NAIROBI 200

H. NAIROBI 192

Classified By: Ambassador Ranneberger, reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) Summary. A meeting between President Kibaki and Raila
Odinga facilitated by Kofi Annan on January 24 sent a very
positive message to the Kenyan people and will help end
violence. The agenda and modalities for subsequent dialogue
have not yet been worked out. The process of dialogue will
be difficult. The U.S. played a crucial role in bringing the
two leaders to the table. Achieving a constructive outcome
will require continued intense U.S. engagement. End summary.

--------------
Kibaki-Odinga Meeting Sends Positive Message
--------------


2. (SBU) During the late afternoon of January 24, President
Kibaki and Raila Odinga met face-to-face for about one hour
and fifteen minutes under the auspices of the AU eminent
persons group headed by Kofi Annan. In order to side-step
the issue of Odinga having to go to State House, the meeting
took place in the parliamentary office building where the
President has his office.


3. (SBU) Annan, Kibaki, and Odinga emerged from the meeting
smiling, and shook hands. The three then made positive
public statements, which were covered live by television and
radio. Annan said that the meeting represented the first step
in working together to achieve peace and justice. He
indicated that the two sides had agreed to certain common
principles, such as a joint commitment to end violence and to
pursue dialogue. Annan expressed concern about violence
which has wracked Kenya. He referred to instances of use of
excessive force by the police and said the government will
carry out a thorough investigation. "We will work together
during the coming weeks and months" in a process of dialogue
and reconciliation, Annan said.


4. (SBU) Odinga said that he had "walked the extra mile to
take the first vital step to resolve the electoral dispute."

The goal, he emphasized, is to achieve peace and justice. He
said he was grateful that "the AU mediation team had moved so
quickly to facilitate negotiations." Odinga bemoaned the
violence, saying many innocent people had died. "I pledge
that I will spare no effort, and I ask everyone to uphold
peace." The negotiations, Odinga said, should be completed
as quickly as possible.


5. (SBU) Kibaki said, "I know everyone is deeply concerned
about the violence that has occurred and the innocent loss of
life." Kibaki said that after being sworn-in as "the duly
elected" president, he pledged to "promote unity, tolerance,
peace, and harmony." This includes, he said, "a commitment
to dialogue and reconciliation." He welcomed the role of the
AU eminent persons group "in facilitating dialogue within the
legal and constitutional framework." Kibaki pledged "to get
to the bottom of the causes of the current problems," and to
foster "a process of healing and reconciliation." He
emphasized the need to protect the lives and property of all
Kenyans. "I appeal to all Kenyans to shun violence," he
said, and added that "together we can overcome these
problems." Kibaki emphasized that Kenyans have lived
together peacefully since independence. He appealed for
neighbors to help with the return to their homes of those who
have been displaced. No Kenyan is a visitor or a guest in
any area of this country, Kibaki stressed; anyone can live in
any part of the country.


6. (C) We know from ODM sources that Odinga and his team feel
they were in some respects "ambushed" at the meeting. First,
since ODM was told that the meeting was one-on-one, Odinga

NAIROBI 00000281 002 OF 003


brought only pentagon member Ruto and spokesperson Salim Lone
with him. Kibaki, on the other hand, showed up with half a
dozen key ministers. As a result, the public press event
appeared weighted towards the government side. In addition,
after Odinga spoke using a microphone, Kibaki,s people
insisted on moving the presidential podium in front of Kibaki
(even though Kibaki could be heard saying "what the hell,
I'll just do it from the microphone"). Second, the ODM feels
that Kibaki's statement on being "duly elected" did violate
the understanding the two sides had with Annan that public
remarks would be brief and conciliatory. Odinga's team later
in the evening gave a press conference at which they
criticized Kibaki for his reference to being "duly elected."


7. (C) Members of the ODM leadership unhappy about having
been "ambushed" met last night with Annan to make clear their
unhappiness and to insist that the "rules of engagement" for
future meetings be clearly spelled out. Annan, according to
ODM sources, agreed that Kibaki had gone too far in his
remarks, made clear that he is not happy about that, and said
he would insist on clearer ground rules for subsequent
discussions.

--------------
Next Steps
--------------


8. (C) Initial readouts from both sides, and contacts close
to Annan, indicate that meeting resulted on agreement on some
very general principles. The meeting was not intended to
address the major substantive issues. The general principles
include: commitment to dialogue within the framework of the
constitution, joint efforts to end violence, and the need for
national reconciliation.


9. (SBU) The agenda, timing, and modalities for follow-up
discussions remain to be worked out. Annan has made clear he
will continue to work with both sides to achieve results. We
understand that he will rely on UN and AU support to put
together a team to assist him.


10. (C) Minister of Security Saitoti told me that the meeting
"created the enabling environment" for dialogue. He urged
the U.S. to encourage rapid follow-up. He confirmed that
there is not yet agreement on specific next steps.


11. (C) Prior to the 3-way meeting, I met with Annan, Mkapa,
and Machel to emphasize U.S. support for their efforts and to
discuss the way forward. Annan said that he did not expect
much substantive discussion at the meeting. "The meeting is
the message," he stated. I shared the non-paper on the way
forward with him, indicating that I had also shared it with
Kibaki and Odinga. I encouraged him to use it as he deemed
appropriate.

--------------
Museveni Distraction
--------------


12. (SBU) A quick visit by Ugandan President Museveni to
Kenya threatened to complicate the eminent persons, efforts
but, in the end, did not. In what appeared to be an effort
closely coordinated with the Kenyan government, Museveni came
armed with his own proposals to establish a special judicial
commission to review the electoral results. This approach
reflects Kibaki,s emphasis on the need for Odinga to pursue
judicial recourse in disputing the election. Clearly unhappy
about Museveni,s intervention, Annan dismissed it. He made
clear there can be only one mediating effort, and that is his
eminent person,s group. He pointed out that his effort has
united international support from the UN, AU, EU, and U.S.

--------------
Comment
--------------


13. (C) The meeting sent a very positive signal to the Kenyan
people that their leaders are finally engaging in dialogue,
and this will have a major impact in dampening violence.

NAIROBI 00000281 003 OF 003


Having stared into the abyss, Kenyans are breathing an almost
audible sigh of relief that their leaders have pulled back.
They, and we, realize, however, that the meeting is just a
first step down what will be a difficult path of dialogue,
one with no assurance of reaching its goal of a solution
reflecting the will of the Kenyan people. The image of
hardliners on both sides standing with their principals (for
example, Minister of Justice Martha Karua with Kibaki, and
William Ruto with Odinga) also sent a positive message.
However, we know from both camps that both Kibaki and Odinga
had to work to overcome reticence of hardliners about having
a meeting.


14. (C) U.S. pressure on both sides was instrumental in
getting Kibaki and Odinga to this meeting. The eminent
persons group provided the face-saving way to achieve it.
Intensive U.S. engagement will be needed with both sides, and
in support of the eminent persons, to move the dialogue
process forward.


15. (SBU) The Kenyan people also deserve enormous credit for
what has happened. Through civil society, religious groups,
the business community, and the media, the Kenyan people
delivered a clear message to both leaders that enough is
enough, and that dialogue is needed to end violence and
resolve the crisis. That voice of the Kenyan people reflects
underlying strengths of this country that I have discussed in
reftels. The unique U.S. credibility with the Kenyan people,
and with both sides, is evident in getting the two leaders to
meet. We are widely credited with a major role in bringing
that about. Kenyans )- and their leaders -- will continue
to look to us to help promote a constructive outcome to the
process of dialogue.
RANNEBERGER