SOMALIA - TFG PRESIDENT, PRIME MINISTER, SPEAKER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 002554

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/E

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/05/2018
TAGS: PGOV PINR SO
SUBJECT: SOMALIA - TFG PRESIDENT, PRIME MINISTER, SPEAKER
STILL AT LOGGERHEADS

REF: NAIROBI 2543

Classified By: Classified by Counselor for Somalia Affairs Bob Patterso
n. Reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) Summary: On the eve of his departure for London to
present a new cabinet for approval by President Yusuf, Prime
Minister Nur Hassan Hussein "Nur Adde" described continuing
strife within the Transitional Federal Government leadership
and efforts by President Yusuf to block progress in the
creation of a unity government. In a separate meeting,
Parliament Speaker Sheikh Aden Mohamed Nur "Madobe" echoed
many of the Prime Minister's criticisms of Yusuf, and alleged
that the President was attempting to prevent the Parliament
from convening in an effort to stymie the creation of a new
government. Both the Prime Minister and the Speaker praised
efforts of Alliance for the Reliberation of Somalia (ARS)
Chairman Sheikh Sharif Ahmed to stump for the new unity
government in Somalia (reftel). They asked the USG to
pressure Yusuf to accept, or at least not resist, the
Djibouti Process. ARS Central Committee Chairman Sharif
Hassan Aden separately reported that his faction was anxious
to move the Djibouti Process forward, but lacked a capable
partner in the TFG. End summary.

President Seen As Obstacle
--------------


2. (C) A typically subdued TFG Prime Minister Nur Hassan
Hussein "Nur Adde" described to us at length his efforts to
induce TFG President Abdullahi Yusuf to agree to a
reconstituted TFG cabinet and to build a government of
national unity as called for in the October 26 Djibouti
declaration. In the Prime Minister's telling, Yusuf was
constitutionally "worried and afraid of change," yet "unhappy
with the Parliament, the Speaker, and with me." Adding to
Yusuf's unhappiness, the PM said, were efforts to create a
TFG - ARS unity government. Yusuf allegedly termed the ARS a
"Hawiye only" alliance that did not deserve to be the TFG's
equal partner.

Prime Minister - President
Consultations On New Cabinet
--------------


3. (C) Since the close of the October 28 - 20 IGAD Summit,
the Prime Minister had been in intensive consultations with
clan elders and had assembled a new cabinet, which he would
present for President Yusuf's approval when he traveled to
London on November 5. (Yusuf has been in London for his
semi-annual medical exam since November 3.) The cabinet Nur
Adde was proposing did not include ARS representatives. Nur
Adde suggested later in the conversation that it would be an
interim cabinet that would, in time, be replaced by a new,
unity cabinet. His goal was to nudge Yusuf toward acceptance
of a unity cabinet by first getting him to approve a less
controversial team, and to use that TFG cabinet to improve
the TFG's hand in its negotiations with the ARS.


4. (C) Nur Adde did not believe that Yusuf would show any
more flexibility than he had in the past. He thought that
the President would continue to stonewall any effort by the
TFG to stand up a working government, and that Yusuf would be
even less inclined to aid in the creation of a TFG - ARS
unity government.


5. (C) Nur Adde contrasted the continuing strife within his
TFG with the unity among members of the Djibouti ARS, which
"was ready for power-sharing discussions." The ARS
understood the need to "aggressively implement what had been
agreed in Djibouti," he said, while Yusuf was preoccupied
with ousting the Speaker and neutralizing the Prime Minister.
The Speaker, and many members of parliament, for their part
hoped to impeach Yusuf.

Parliament Speaker Also
Notes Lack of TFG Cooperation
--------------


6. (C) In a separate meeting, Speaker Sheikh Aden Mohamed Nur
"Madobe" readily agreed that President Yusuf and he were at
loggerheads, noted that Yusuf and Nur Adde "did not see
eye-to-eye on the composition of the cabinet," and alleged
that continued strife within the TFG was playing into the
hands of "militants" in Somalia. Madobe and the Prime
Minister thought that Yusuf was encouraging members of
parliament to travel to Mogadishu instead of Baidoa as a way

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of preventing the parliament from having a quorum and
attempting to remove the President or ratify a unity
government. Like Nur Adde, Madobe urged the international
community to pressure Yusuf to cooperate in the creation of a
unity government.

ARS In Search of a Partner
--------------


7. (C) ARS Central Committee Chairman Sharif Hassan Aden
separately expressed to us his impatience with the TFG, which
was "not ready to go forward." Following the signing of the
October 29 unity government declaration, the ARS had proposed
to the TFG that the parliament be expanded to allow the ARS
to be represented, but the TFG was "hesitant to vacate its
seats," or see its influence reduced, and President Yusuf
would likely not accept an expanded Parliament. TFG members
of the High-Level Committee, which had been meeting in
Nairobi since November 2 were similarly reluctant to have
substantive discussions. The ARS would like to see the
October 29 cessation of hostilities agreement implemented,
Sharif Hassan said. He welcomed positive Government of
Ethiopia statements about the agreements and hoped that the
GOE would actively back efforts to effect a ceasefire.


8. (C) Sharif Hassan reported that ARS Chairman Sheikh
Sharif's current visit to Jowhar and Beletweyne was meeting
with support, but warned that Eritrea "continued to back the
spoilers" of the Djibouti process. He urged more aggressive
support of the Djibouti Process from the international
community, and also identified President Yusuf as the key
obstacle to progress on a unity government.

Comment
--------------


9. (C) In its conversations, Embassy stressed the need of all
parties to table and negotiate concrete proposals instead of
doing nothing in anticipation of potential negative responses
from their counterparts. The unified ARS-Djibouti contingent
seemed genuinely anxious to use the window of opportunity
provided by the unity declaration to make concrete progress
before enthusiasm for a unity government waned in Somalia.
Nur Adde, Madobe, and Sharif Hassan all urged that the
international community, and the USG in particular, pressure
President Yusuf to end his resistance to a unity government,
and to allow the Djibouti Process to go forward. In addition
to pressure from the heads of the TFG, its Speaker, and its
new coalition partner (ARS),UN Special Representative
Ould-Abdallah told us he had urged Yusuf before his November
4 departure for London to allow a unity government to be
formed. Ould-Abdallah alleged that Yusuf was under
increasing pressure from his own clan and from his inner
circle, including his wife, to leave. The President,
however, remained contemptuous of his opponents and had been
bolstered by his success in withstanding the pressure put on
him by Ethiopia during the October 28 - 29 IGAD Summit. It
is unlikely that increasingly unanimous dissatisfaction among
his would-be allies will change Yusuf's mind.
RANNEBERGER