OMAN'S BIN ALAWI DISCUSSES U.S.-GCC SECURITY,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MUSCAT 000789

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/18/2018
TAGS: PREL PTER KPAL GCC PK IN IZ MU
SUBJECT: OMAN'S BIN ALAWI DISCUSSES U.S.-GCC SECURITY,
MIDEAST PEACE, PAKISTAN, IRAQ

REF: A. STATE 111596 (NOTAL)

B. STATE 113956 (NOTAL)

Classified By: Ambassador Gary A. Grappo per 1.4 (B and D.)


1. (C) Summary: In a meeting with the Ambassador November
17, Minister Responsible for Foreign Affairs Yusef bin Alawi
reviewed Oman's idea for developing U.S.-GCC security
cooperation, which will be presented for discussion at the
December GCC summit, his thoughts on Mideast peace, Iraq and
the SOFA, and Omani and Indian fears over potential future
instability in Pakistan. End Summary.

U.S.-GCC Security on GCC Summit Agenda
--------------

2. (C) Bin Alawi said that Oman was preparing a paper for
discussion at the December GCC summit on U.S.-GCC security
cooperation (reftel). Still incomplete, the paper will lay
out Omani ideas for strengthening cooperation in areas
relating to security between the U.S. and GCC as a whole, as
opposed to individual GCC members. Existing bilateral
security arrangements between the U.S. and each of the GCC
states would not be affected, he said. The paper will
address Gulf regional security as well as security challenges
throughout the Middle East and South Asia in which the GCC,
working with the U.S., might play a constructive role.


3. (C) The minister also indicated that Oman might propose
a conference focusing on how regional states might respond to
extra-regional problems and crises, e.g., Pakistan,
Afghanistan, Iran, etc. It would include governments from
the Gulf as well as outside governments with an obvious
interest, such as the U.S. He emphasized that Oman's intent
was to draw the U.S. and GCC states closer together to
address the region's security problems. As the paper moved
closer to completion, he agreed to share Omani thoughts in
greater detail.

Concerns over Pakistan
--------------

4. (C) One of the reasons behind the Omani idea is growing
Omani fears over instability in Pakistan. During the recent
visit of Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, the two sides
discussed Pakistan and the likelihood of events in Pakistan
spiraling out of control. Bin Alawi said that victory by
Pakistani forces over factions in the tribal areas was
patently "unachievable;" the best the government could hope
for was some modus vivendi in which the various tribal
factions enjoyed a form of autonomy in exchange for closer
security cooperation and a pledge to keep terrorists and
other extremists out.


5. (C) Pakistan's security challenges are further
complicated by lack of confidence in the new and untested
president, worries over the ruling party's ability to stay in
control, a looming economic crisis and consequent fear of
another army take-over. All of this, he said, was a matter
of considerable concern to the Indians, who wondered about a
"security vacuum" in parts of Pakistan that extremists would
exploit and the attendant potential for greater Muslim-Hindu
violence in India itself. "The Indians were very worried
about Pakistan," he concluded.

Another Approach to Mideast Peace: &Two States, One System8
-------------- --------------

6. (C) Bin Alawi displayed his now standard pessimism over
Israeli-Palestinian peace. "Israeli offers of compromise are
too little to be accepted by the Arabs, and the big
compromises necessary are too big to be accepted by the
Israelis," he lamented. Uncertainty over the upcoming
Israeli elections and the expanding gap between the PA/Fatah
and Hamas cast a darker shadow over prospects for peace. On
the former, he suggested that the recent meeting in Sharm al
Sheikh had been done principally to bolster Israeli FM
Livni's fortunes in the upcoming election, which was
"logical" in view of the stakes for the Palestinians and
Arabs.


7. (C) Bin Alawi said he had met with Livni briefly in New
York and had suggested that she consider an idea of his for
Israeli-Palestinian peace. Calling it "two states, one
system," he said it would entail fairly quick recognition of
a Palestinian state but would leave many of the outstanding
problems to mutually agreed and largely non-government means
for resolution. As Israeli and Palestinian areas would soon
become effectively indistinguishable given population growth

MUSCAT 00000789 002 OF 002


rates and the expansion of urban areas, perhaps the people
themselves through government-blessed institutions and
business could be left to resolve problems of water,
boundaries, labor, residences, etc. He allowed, however,
that "some fixed borders would probably have to be settled in
advance." When asked about security, he confessed, "We Arabs
probably still don't grasp how critical this is to the
Israelis." The minister said he understood that his idea was
"unorthodox" but he had intended for it to stimulate new
thinking about the problem.

Iraq: No Alternative to SOFA
--------------

8. (C) The minister offered his congratulations on the
Iraqi Council of Minister's recent approval of the SOFA.
"They have no choice," exclaimed bin Alawi, arguing that
Iraqi security forces are not yet ready to assume
responsibility for security in Iraq. The U.S. must remain in
Iraq to maintain the improved but fragile security in the
country and ensure a smooth hand-over of the security
function to the Iraqis. He opined that Iraq's Council of
Ministers would act "sensibly" and also approve the SOFA
quickly.

Comment
--------------

9. (C) Oman's leadership, history, and geo-political
positioning have predisposed the Sultanate to look beyond the
Gulf region. Judging from bin Alawi's comments, the Omanis
are genuinely concerned about the situation in Pakistan and
the potential for instability there to boil over into India,
Afghanistan and elsewhere in the region. The ideas of closer
cooperation with the U.S. and a regional conference appear
intended not only to focus the GCC's attention and efforts on
its potential role in matters outside the immediate region of
the Gulf, but also to ensure close cooperation and
coordination with the region's largest non-regional player
and partner, the U.S. We cannot dismiss the added
possibility, however, that the Omanis are looking for some
mechanism to integrate Iran in the region's political
apparatus. Post will remain in close touch with the minister
and his staff to monitor progress on the Omani security paper
for the GCC Summit. End Comment.
GRAPPO