GERMANY/BAVARIAN POLITICS: NEW BAVARIAN POLITICS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MUNICH 000351

SIPDIS

DEPT PASS TO DEPT OF AGRICULTURE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/28/2018
TAGS: PGOV INRB GM
SUBJECT: GERMANY/BAVARIAN POLITICS: NEW BAVARIAN POLITICS
AFFECTS MUNICH AND BERLIN

REF: A. MUNICH 331

B. MUNICH 322

C. MUNICH 319

Classified By: Acting Consul General Kathryn Crockart for reasons 1.4 (
b) and (d)


--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Horst Seehofer (Christian Social Union - CSU) became
Bavaria's new Minister President October 27, leaving his
position as Federal Agriculture Minister to lead the first
Bavarian coalition in 46 years. CSU leadership figures
promised a more independent CSU, which could present
challenges to Chancellor Merkel. Bundestag member
Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg said the CSU is ready to warn its
sister Christian Democratic Party (CDU) that the CSU "wants
to be more than a lousy copy of the CDU." Seehofer told his
party cohorts in Munich that he was not ready to sacrifice
CSU principles on the altar of a grand coalition in Berlin
and warned about "any exaggerated readiness for compromise."
Closer to home, the coalition pact in Bavaria reflects real
CSU compromises with the FDP, especially on citizens' rights
to privacy, integration, and education. Seehofer's election
is seen as a needed changing of the guard in Munich designed
to help the CSU remain a national force in German politics
but it falls short of a generational change. His successor
as Federal Agriculture Minister is expected to be announced
by the end of the week and could lead to a minor reshuffle in
the Federal Cabinet. Zu Guttenberg may be a candidate to
replace Seehofer in the federal cabinet. End Summary.

Exit Good Old Boys and Good Riddance
--------------


2. (C) Horst Seehofer (59) was elected new CSU party chairman
October 26 with 90.3 percent of the vote and, the next day,
the Bavarian Landtag elected him as Minister President, with
104 out of 184 votes. He said the current CSU/FDP coalition
is merely an episode on the CSU's way back to an absolute
majority in five years. He insisted that voters gave the CSU
a clear mandate even if they required them to rule in a
coalition and he dismissed competition from the SPD (Social
Democratic Party of Germany) as negligible. The CSU would
have to dry up support for the FDP and the Independents by
adopting their issues wherever possible, he suggested. He is
expected to present his new cabinet on October 30 and the
public is hoping to see new, younger and more female faces.


3. (C) Seehofer faces the major challenge of reorienting a
weakened CSU better to reflect Bavaria's modern demographics.
A mid-ranking civil servant at the Ministry of Environment
assessed to Poloff October 27 that the CSU "had lost touch
with the voters and especially the women in Bavaria," adding
that "it was time for the good-old-boys to go." The CSU has
a medium-term challenge to regroup in time to win seats in
the June 2009 European Parliament elections (for which the
CSU must win 5 percent of the national vote). Failure in the
EP elections could strengthen the insular tendencies of the
CSU and complicate the CDU-CSU partnership. At the same
time, the FDP will likely benefit from its new regional
prominence and have better chances both in the European
Parliament and national elections in the Summer of 2009.

CSU to Angela Merkel: No More Mister Nice Guy
--------------


4. (C) Bundestag Representative Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg
(CSU),one of those fresh faces and leader of the foreign
policy committee of the CSU at the national level, confirmed
this movement for change. He said that the CSU should strive
to raise conservative topics and themes that the CDU cannot
and the CSU should take care to do so with its
"characteristic reasonableness." Echoing this sentiment,
Seehofer has said he would, in his new capacity, remain very
active in Berlin. The CSU rank and file and local
commentators understood his statement as a promise to sharpen
the CSU profile to the detriment of the sister party CDU.


5. (C) Some Consulate contacts see the Bavarian CSU/FDP
coalition as a test-run for the 2009 national elections that

MUNICH 00000351 002 OF 002


could complicate the work of the federal Grand Coalition in
the short term. Inheritance tax reform is one issue where
the FDP and CSU agree and this could cause problems for the
national Grand Coalition. Another is health reform. The CSU
and FDP would push for a Bundesrat initiative to change the
parameters of the new health fund next year should it
disproportionately burden Bavaria. At the same time,
Seehofer has to be careful since he depends on help from
Berlin to overcome the BayernLB bank problems, which will
also negatively affect planned popular investments in
education, research and infrastructure.


Bavaria Still Conservative, Now with Liberal Accents
-------------- --------------


6. (SBU) The conservative camp of CSU, FDP, and Independents
(Freie Waehler) command almost a two-thirds majority in
Bavaria, roughly equal to what the CSU had before it lost 17
points in the recent elections. Despite CSU insistence that
they controlled the coalition negotiation process, the
agreement had FDP finger prints all over it. FDP members
proudly told us they felt that the 43-percent party CSU had
dealt with the 8-percent party FDP on equal terms, something
inconceivable a few months earlier. FDP state chairwoman
Sabine Leutheusser-Schnarrenberger, former Federal Minister
of Justice and deputy chairperson of the national FDP caucus,
was successful in getting the CSU to pay more attention to
FDP civil rights issues. The CSU conceded tighter
restrictions on domestic surveillance, agreed to establish
the position of an integration commissioner, and undertook to
support education reforms.

Replacing Seehofer in Berlin Could Affect Cabinet
-------------- --------------


7. (C) Seehofer's successor as Federal Agriculture Minister
should be announced by the end of this week. Two names are
currently on the table in Bavaria: Agriculture State
Secretary Gert Mueller and Bundestag representative
Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, both CSU. Guttenberg told the
Consul General recently in private that he would prefer to
remain in his current role dealing with foreign policy; he
does not "see himself as a farmer." However, people also
tell us that the up-and-comer zu Guttenberg could be given
the Ministerial portfolio as a way of grooming him for
greater responsibilities in the future. Finally, some
speculate that the departure of Seehofer could open the way
to a reshuffle of the Federal cabinet where the CSU could
take a portfolio other than Agriculture.

Comment
--------------


8. (C) The CSU has lost its almost instinctive ability to
overcome crisis and rejuvenate itself while remaining
dominant. Pragmatism rather than confidence led to the
election of Horst Seehofer; he finished second in the race
for the party chairmanship just last year. His style will be
in sharp contrast to the autocratic ways of former Minister
President Edmund Stoiber, and modern Bavaria can only profit.
The change of government in Bavaria may increase the
developing friction in Chancellor Merkel's Grand Coalition,
as the CSU attempts to demonstrate its independence. In the
longer term, a successful CSU/FDP coalition government in
Bavaria could teach the CSU the 21st century tricks it must
have to fulfill its aspirations of relevance at the regional,
national and European level.


9. (U) This report has been coordinated with Embassy Berlin.


10. (U) Track reporting from Munich at
http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Germ any.
CROCKART