CHHATTISGARH ELECTIONS: BJP CONFIDENT OF FORMING

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MUMBAI 000567

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PTER ECON KDEM PHUM IN
SUBJECT: CHHATTISGARH ELECTIONS: BJP CONFIDENT OF FORMING
GOVERNMENT, CONGRESS SAYS ARITHMETIC IS ON ITS SIDE

REF: A. A 240

B. B 325

C. C 326

D. D 531

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1. (SBU) Summary: The Indian state of Chhattisgarh went to the
polls on November 14 and 20. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party
(BJP) has made wholesale changes to its roster, throwing out a
majority of its sitting legislators to avoid anti-incumbency.
It has high-lighted its anti-Maoist security policies and
offered rice at give away prices to its poorest citizens. The
Congress hopes to gain from anti-incumbency and concern about
corruption, and aims to woo back tribal voters from the BJP.
The central and state government provided extensive security for
the polls, especially in Maoist-affected areas, and voter
turn-out appears to be high. Congress leaders agreed that the
BJP is in a strong position, but hopes to make gains from the
2003 polls. However, the BJP has only a four seat majority
going into the elections, and the loss of a few seats could
bring a Congress-led coalition to power. The Mumbai terrorist
attacks, which occurred after the end of voting, will not be a
factor in these polls. End Summary



CHHATTISGARH VOTING COMPLETED

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2. (SBU) Chhattisgarh went to the polls in two phases, November
14 and 20 (Ref D). On November 14, polls were held in the 12
districts most affected by the Maoist insurgency in the state,
and the central and state government provided extensive
security. Polls were held in the rest of the state on November

20. The Election Commission will announce the results on
December 8. In the outgoing state assembly of 90 seats in
Chhattisgarh, the BJP holds 50 seats, the Congress 37, the
Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) 1, and the Bahujan Samaj Party

1. (One seat is vacant.) Chhattisgarh has a significant
scheduled caste (SC/Dalit) and tribal (ST) population, and large
numbers of assembly seats are reserved for these disadvantaged
communities. Thirty-nine of Chhattisgarh's 90 seats are
reserved for SC/ST candidates (SC - 10, ST - 29). As elsewhere,
the main electoral issues in the state are development,
security, and anti-incumbency, though Chhattisgarh's faces these
challenges in unique ways.




3. (U) In India, the simple explanation for all voter behavior
is "anti-incumbency." When governments lose power, it is
ascribed to anti-incumbency; when governments maintain power,
they are said to have overcome anti-incumbency. Since
governments so routinely disappoint voters in India, this
analysis has served pundits well. Though people of both parties
respect Chhattisgarh Chief Minister Raman Singh, observers
believe that anti-incumbency sentiments will be high; his
administration has been frequently criticized for corruption and
poor governance. A Congress leader from Gujarat who was
campaigning for his party in Chhattisgarh told Congenoffs, "All
the anti-government votes will gravitate to the Congress Party.
Our internal calculations show that both BJP and Congress will
get 40 seats each comfortably and the ten remaining seats will
be so thinly won or lost, that whichever party comes to power
would hold a wafer-thin majority." According to Ejaz Kaiser,
Raipur Bureau Chief for the Hindustan Times, an important
election issue for voters is their desire to see an end to the
Maoist violence in the southern part of the state, which has
increased dramatically since 2005.



ANTIDOTE FOR ANTI-INCUMBENCY?

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4. (SBU) Recognizing the risk of anti-incumbency, the BJP
replaced 42 of its 50 sitting assembly members with new
candidates for the elections. Gujarat CM Narendra Modi had
taken the same step with success in the December 2007 elections
in that state. Only 46 seats are needed to hold power in
Chhattisgarh. Since control of the legislature could be

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reversed by the loss or gain of just a few seats, the BJP is
hoping this move will pay off. Some interlocutors, however,
predict that if the Congress and third parties gain a handful of
seats, it could explore the possibility of a coalition
government. Kaiser predicted that successful third-party
candidates would more likely align themselves with a
Congress-led coalition, than with the BJP.



POLLSTERS PREDICT BJP WITH LEAD

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5. (U) With only 46 needed for a majority, "The Week-C-Voter"
pre-poll survey shows both major parties close to that razor
thin margin, but gives a slight to the BJP (44 - 52 seats) over
the Congress (38 - 46 seats). In contrast, a Nielsen-Star News
poll predicts the BJP gaining both vote share and seats,
resulting in a convincing majority, growing from 50 seats to a
solid 55 seats. Polls in India, though, are notoriously
unreliable.





CHEAP RICE WILL BRING HOME THE BACON

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6. (U) In order to solidify a win, the BJP kicked off what the
media are calling "rice wars." Four days ahead of the first
phase of polling, on November 10, the ruling BJP released its
election manifesto, including sharp cuts in the price of rice.
The BJP had been offering rice at 6 cents a kilo to the poorest
of the poor for the past two years, which, according to
observers, contributed to BJP victories in two assembly
by-elections. Not to be outdone, the Congress, offered rice at
4 cents per kilo to the poorest in its election manifesto. In
response, the BJP promised rice at 2 cents per kilo to the
poorest of the poor, and at 4 cents per kilo to people just
below the poverty line. (Note: Offering rice at below market
costs also enables the government to offload excess rice
accumulated over the past 8 to 10 years as a result of price
supports for farmers that created excess rice production. End
Note.) Chief Minister Singh explained the politics and the
economics simply: "For Rs. 3 billion ($60 million) more
annually, I can ensure that not a single person goes to bed
hungry in my state." This is an appealing strategy in a state
with many who struggle to feed their families.



SALWA JUDUM AND THE NAXALITES: POLITICAL HOT POTATO

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7. (SBU) With an increase in Maoist related violence in the
southern part of the state since 2005, security and the
government-sponsored Salwa Judum movement are also a major
issues. The Salwa Judum movement has been controversial inside
and outside Chhattisgarh. The movement, which started as a
largely tribal people's movement to oppose Maoist insurgents
(known locally as Naxalites) in Chhattisgarh, was met with
violence from the Maoists, driving - or forcing - villagers into
Internally Displaced Person (IDP) camps. Though still called
Salwa Judum, the term now refers to a loose organization of
tribal villagers, armed by the state to assist in anti-Maoist
paramilitary operations (Refs A, B, C). There are now roughly
40,000 villagers living in IDP camps in southern Chhattisgarh.
According to Kaiser, candidates have largely avoided talking
about the Maoist problem, but have expressed differing views on
the Salwa Judum. The movement was initiated by senior Congress
politician Mahendra Karma as a way to peacefully counter the
Maoist influence in tribal villages, but once these efforts
turned violent, and villagers fled to the IDP camps, Chief
Minister Singh of the BJP and the state security forces armed
some of the villagers, with the support of Karma. CM Singh has

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vowed that Salwa Judum will continue to operate. Ajit Jogi, the
former CM and the un-anointed Congress challenger, promised in
his election speeches that a Congress government would disband
the Salwa Judum. However, Karma and other Congress leaders from
the Maoist-affected areas of south Chhattisgarh continue to
express support for Salwa Judum, in some form.



STRONG VOTER TURNOUT DESPITE MAOIST THREATS

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8. (U) State and national security forces provided extensive
security for the polls in southern Chhattisgarh. Voter turnout
throughout the state was high, even in Maoist-affected areas.

Though Maoists threatened to "cut-off the hands of people who
dared to vote," voter turnout was as high as 55 percent in the
worst impacted areas, according to press estimates. (According
to official figures, 70.53 percent of eligible voters turned out
across the districts in the first phase of voting, an estimated
6.4 million people. In 2003, when violence was less of an issue,
voter turn-out was reportedly 70 percent as well.)




9. (U) Nevertheless, campaigning by both the major parties was
subdued in the 12 Maoist-affected constituencies (out of a total
90 for the state),and there was some violence, though less than
in the 2003 elections. Two security personnel died in Maoist
attacks, down from five in the last election. Far fewer polling
stations were disrupted and electronic voting machines looted
than last time. Maoists attacked seventeen polling places, but
the election commission quickly re-established voting. Twelve
Salwa Judum associates contested the polls, some as independents
and some as BJP candidates. Voters clearly demonstrated their
refusal to be held hostage by the Maoists, though it is
difficult to gauge public opinion about the government attempts
to eliminate the Maoist threat, as well as the Salwa Judum.




10. (SBU) Tribal areas in most parts of the country have
traditionally voted for Congress candidates. The Congress Party
in Chhattisgarh has also historically nurtured tribal
candidates, who have helped the party develop strong vote banks
in these poor, rural areas. In 2003, however, tribal voters in
the state cast their ballots for the BJP in large numbers,
helping the BJP come to power. The BJP expects tribal voters to
do the same this time; on the evening of the first round of
polling, CM Singh confided to one of his staff, "My government
is coming back."






11. (SBU) Comment: The voting in Chhattisgarh was completed
before the Mumbai terrorist attacks of November 26, so this
tragedy will not be a factor in these elections. The BJP
believes that it will come back to power with a comfortable
majority, while the Congress hopes to gain enough seats to allow
it to form a government, perhaps in a coalition with third
parties. As one of India's most remote and poorest states,
gauging public sentiment is difficult. The government's efforts
to ensure that its citizens were able to cast their ballot,
despite security threats and poor infrastructure, is admirable.
End Comment.
FOLMSBEE