RUSSIA'S SAMARA OBLAST - WHAT ELECTION?

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 000567

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/28/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR RS SOCI
SUBJECT: RUSSIA'S SAMARA OBLAST - WHAT ELECTION?

REF: A. MOSCOW 00479


B. MOSCOW 00411

C. MOSCOW 00497

D. MOSCOW 00483

Classified By: Political M/C Alice G. Wells. Reason: 1.4 (d).


1. (SBU) Summary: For most in Samara oblast, the coming
Presidential election is a "non-event," with nearly all
interlocutors seeing the campaign as already decided.
Excepting the ubiquitous posters and banners calling for
people to head to the polls this Saturday, there was little
evidence in the city of Samara that a presidential race is
underway. In neighboring Tolyatti, the home of the Avtovaz
factory, there were likewise few signs of political
competition for president -- a marked difference from the
billboards and flyers posted for the mayor election (septel).
Expectations for Sunday reflect Samara's track record of
comparatively low election turnout vice the national average,
with polling predicting between 50-65% turnout, of which
approximately 70% will go for Medvedev and the remaining 30%
to be split by the Communists and Vladimir Zhirinovskiy's
Liberal Democratic Party. End Summary.

The Parties
--------------


2. (SBU) United Russia's headquarters for its Samara city
branch occupies an entire two-story building, with offices
for the party leadership, youth organization, and city Duma
members to meet their constituents. Aleksandr Fetisov, a
former marine officer and now head of the regional executive
committee, was confidently optimistic about the turnout and
share of votes for Medvedev. He painted a picture of a
well-oiled political machine, led "informally" by regional
Governor Vladimir Artyakov (the official head of Medvedev's
campaign in Samara is Duma Deputy Viktor Kazakov, who also
led the party's campaign for the Duma in December). Fetisov
noted that the party's Moscow leadership had provided
support, sending prominent political scientist and Duma
Deputy Sergey Markov to lead a round of campaign seminars,
and organizing meetings of party organizations in the Volga
Okrug, where local teams were able to compare strategies.


3. (SBU) The Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)
headquarters was squalid by comparison, manned by senior
citizens, adorned with pictures of Lenin and Stalin (notably,
not candidate Zyuganov),and packed with copies of KPRF
newspapers. Party First Secretary and State Duma Deputy
Valentin Romanov came across as a capable politician facing
what he admitted to be tall odds in promoting his candidate
in an election that he deemed "unfair." He lamented the
three or more hours of television coverage that was lavished
on Medvedev and despaired of the KPRF's inability to gain
access to local newspapers or television stations. He noted
that conditions for the KPRF had been "easier" than during
the Duma elections last fall, but the party had faced
increased pressure in the last weeks, including falsified
advertisements for a KPRF political rally on Saturday (which
would be a violation of election laws). Not only did the KPRF
headquarters lack the bustle and enthusiasm of the United
Russia office, a rally on the city's central square pm
February 28 boasted only a hundred of so pensioners who gave
pitifully weak "hurrahs" to the speeches of the party
leadership. The rally's only representative of the city's
youth ended his oration with a warning that the election of
Medvedev would mean that Russia would be ruled for the first
time by a "Jew" -- which earned him the half-hearted cheers
of the assembled.


4. (SBU) The situation of Samara's Democratic Party of Russia
(DPR) reflected their candidate's pathetic showing in
regional polls. Their office was even more modest than that
of the KPRF, with no evidence of campaign materials or even
staff. The head of the party, Evgeniy Lartsev, and his
deputy Lev Mikhaylovich spent much of their time stressing
the historical roots of the party, which they traced back to
the heyday of the late Gorbachev era when the Democratic
Party faced down the old Soviet leadership. Lartsev had no
complaints about the way that the campaign was being run and
was comfortable with a program based on the national-level
television commercials and debates. With the pride of a
grandfather about his brightest grandson, Mikhaylovich
praised DPR candidate Bogdanov as a young, fresh face who he
believed would be attractive to the younger generation.
Lartsev and Mikhaylovich portrayed the 2008 election as
merely the first step in the creation of a new liberal party,
with hopes that the "right" forces could be consolidated
under Bogdanov and voiced some hope that the expected 5-10%
"protest vote" would swing for their candidate.

The Campaign
--------------


5. (SBU) Olga Solomatina, the head of Samara's Electoral
Commission, portrayed the election process as following legal
norms and proceeding without problems. She noted that there
had been only two violations of election laws, which she
described as "technical mistakes" that were quickly resolved.
She noted that all of the parties taking part in the
elections had seats on the election commissions and said that
relations between the competitors were "professional" and
conflict-free.


6. (C) The election commission has undertaken a massive
advertising campaign to "get out the vote," with billboards
and flyers posted around the city, proclaiming "our country,
our president." When asked, Solomatina noted that funding
for the advertising campaign came from Moscow and not from
local funds. Sergey Kurt-Adzhiev, the former editor of
Novaya Gazeta (which was closed by the authorities last
fall),painted a different picture and claimed that the
election commission had compelled local administrations to
pay for advertisements from budget funds. Moreover, he noted
that the members of the election commission stood to benefit
from a "tidy" campaign, since funding had already been
allocated for a second round and would not have to be
returned or passed to the local administration.


7. (C) Kurt-Adzhiev and local sociologist Vladimir
Zvonkovskiy both expected the use of administrative resources
by local officials in support of United Russia. Zvonkovskiy
argued that such measures -- pressing parents of
schoolchildren to vote, managing employees and encouraging
them to go to the polls, etc, -- provided a 5% difference
during the Duma elections and predicted a similar result on
Sunday. Perhaps as evidence of the collusion between the
administration and United Russia, Medvedev's team was
preparing to hand out scarves to first-time voters that had
been provided by the Election Commission.

Comment
--------------


8. (SBU) The election picture in Samara differs little from
that in other regions (reftels). The usual boost in turnout
for a presidential election has largely been negated by the
population's lack of enthusiasm for yet another referendum on
the country's administration. People remain focused on more
immediate concerns, such as poor roads and dilapidated
infrastructure, rather than on political issues. Even
Samara's political players appeared wearied by the campaign
and ready to move on to other issues.
BURNS