Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08MOSCOW479
2008-02-21 16:20:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Moscow
Cable title:  

UNITED RUSSIA PULLS OUT ALL STOPS IN YAROSLAVL

Tags:  PGOV KDEM SOCI PINR RS 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXYZ0000
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHMO #0479/01 0521620
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 211620Z FEB 08
FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6742
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHXD/MOSCOW POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 000479 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/21/2018
TAGS: PGOV KDEM SOCI PINR RS
SUBJECT: UNITED RUSSIA PULLS OUT ALL STOPS IN YAROSLAVL

REF: MOSCOW 339

Classified By: Bob Patterson for reasons 1.4(d)

SUMMARY
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 000479

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/21/2018
TAGS: PGOV KDEM SOCI PINR RS
SUBJECT: UNITED RUSSIA PULLS OUT ALL STOPS IN YAROSLAVL

REF: MOSCOW 339

Classified By: Bob Patterson for reasons 1.4(d)

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (SBU) United Russia finds itself under a microscope in
Yaroslavl where its poor showing in the December 2 Duma
elections means the national party is closely watching its
preparations for the March 2 presidential elections and
hoping for better results. During a February 13-14 visit by
Emboff, active political campaignQg was taking place in this
"Golden Ring" region outside of Moscow, where a new Governor
took the helm at the end of last year following United
Russia's poor Duma campaign showing. While United Russia
works to find more votes, Just Russia finds itself pulled
from the March 2 ballot for the regional Duma. Other
parties, notably the Liberal Democratic Party and the
Communist Party have circles of loyal supporters. The local
Nashi organization remains active and ardent. End summary.

MOSCOW KEEPS EYE ON UNITED RUSSIA;
JUST RUSSIA PULLED FROM BALLOT
--------------


2. (SBU) Following its third worst showing in the nation
during the December 2, 2007, Duma elections, United Russia is
pulling out all the stops in Yaroslavl to ensure a better
turnout for its party's candidate in the March 2 presidential
elections. United Russia received only 53 percent of the
vote in Yaroslavl in the December Duma elections as compared
to the party's nationwide showing of 64 percent. It was the
third worst result for United Russia in the nation and led
the Kremlin to replace Governor Anatoliy Lisitsyn with Sergey
Vakhrukov. Lisitsyn has since become a member of the State
Duma. During a February 13-14 visit, Emboff found an active
campaign taking place in Yaroslavl where, in addition to
Russia's next president, residents will elect regional Duma
members and their mayor.


3. (SBU) The United Russia campaign headquarters was
particularly active with staff members busily preparing for
the elections and the party's chairman taking orders from
Moscow. Sergey Baburkin, Chairman of United Russia
Yaroslavl's Executive Committee, admitted it was a hard time
for the party and that they were under pressure to improve

their results. Our meeting was interrupted multiple times as
he took calls from his "chief" in Moscow. Competition for
the regional Duma is real, both for proportional and
single-mandate seats, with nine parties represented, he told
us. (NOTE: Just Russia has since been pulled from the ballot
reducing the number to eight.) United Russia is fielding a
full list of 25 candidates on its party list and 25
single-mandate candidates. The United Russia party list is
headed by Russia's first female cosmonaut Valentina
Tereshkova, whose image and campaign slogan "home is where
the heart is" appears on billboards all over town and in
television commercials. Despite its "poor" showing in the
December elections, Baburkin expressed confidence that United
Russia would not only win more than 50 percent of the vote
for its party list but more than half of the single mandate
seats.


4. (SBU) Baburkin said that United Russia is targeting all
demographic groups, but with a particular focus on "their
weak link" during the last election, namely the youth vote.
He attributed the poor turnout by young voters to
complications regarding in which districts students should
vote. He said that this time they will ensure that students
have the "real possibility to vote." United Russia is also
focused on territorial differences in the results from the
December elections, targeting areas that had a weak showing
for United Russia, including Rybinsk, where United Russia
received only 43 percent of the vote and Vladimir
Zhirinovskiy's Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR) is strong,
and Yglich.


5. (C) Representatives of other parties told us United
Russia's game plan is actually less based on strategic
thinking than on intimidation. Marina Kandybina, the local
Chairwoman of liberal opposition party Yabloko, which is not
taking part in the regional Duma campaign, told us United
Russia is targeting members of Just Russia, hoping to move
their votes to United Russia's column. In some cases, this
has taken the form of intimidation where local authorities
show up at the homes of Just Russia members asking them to
prove the veracity of their signatures on party membership
documents. According to Kandybina, just such an incident
happened at her home when authorities showed up at 8 am to
question her mother, a Just Russia member. These types of
incidents were recounted by multiple people with whom we
spoke in Yaroslavl.


6. (C) Stanislav Smirnov, First Secretary of the Communist
Party, told us United Russia is going after Just Russia
because "it too is Kremlin built and they know where the weak
spots are located." While he said Just Russia may have
committed some internal violations, "law enforcement should
not be involved in the registration process." Just Russia
may have made itself an easy target due to an internal
struggle over control of the party. Its former leader,
Aleksandr Tsvetkov, has left the party and is running for the
regional Duma as a representative of the Patriots of Russia.
The new local leader of Just Russia is State Duma Deputy
Anatoliy Greshnevikov. Greshnevikov and Tsvetkov had argued
over the legitimacy of Just Russia's local party conference
held in January, during which their party list was formed.
Supporters of Greshnevikov, who questioned the legitimacy of
the conference and its delegates, took the issue to the local
prosecutor who in turn presented it to the regional election
commission, controlled by United Russia. The case was turned
over to the regional court, which ruled February 20 that Just
Russia's party list and eight single mandate candidates would
be removed from the ballot for the regional Duma. The ruling
said the party conference was not legitimate and that members
of the militia had found that various party conference
protocols had been falsified.


7. (C) Representatives of Yabloko, the Communist Party and
other sources we spoke to, accused United Russia of using
administrative resources to gain an edge in the campaign.
United Russia's Baburkin spoke proudly of the sports centers
that had been built "with direct support from United Russia."
A new athletic complex will open in Yaroslavl in late
February, which Baburkin claimed would be the "biggest in
Russia and Europe." State Duma Speaker Boris Gryzlov is
expected to attend the opening. The Communist Party's
Smirnov said United Russia members visit factories, plants
and government agencies and give orders as to how workers
should vote in the elections. Local journalist Olga Tupikova
told us LDPR and the Communists are hoping the "spoiled
image" of United Russia will help them do better in the
elections. Their results in the State Duma elections were
higher than the national outcomes, 13 and 11 percent of the
vote, respectively.


8. (SBU) United Russia's Baburkin was confident the current
Mayor of Yaroslavl Victor Volonchunas, a member of United
Russia, would be reelected. His plans for renovating
Yaroslavl's many attractions and new construction in
preparation for the 1000th anniversary of Yaroslavl, which
will be celebrated in 2010, make re-election almost
inevitable. "This part of the election is guaranteed,"
Baburkin told us, calling the upcoming millennium a "gift for
the campaign." Support for presidential candidate Medvedev
was little talked about by local political observers although
it was noted that he would do well while candidates
Zhirinovskiy and the Communist's Zyuganov match each other in
polls. Democratic Party candidate Bogdanov, barely breaks the
one percent mark, according to Yabloko's Kandybina.

IN NASHI'S CLUBHOUSE
--------------


9. (SBU) As part of its restructuring, the Kremlin-affiliated
youth movement Nashi will maintain a regional office in
Yaroslavl, one of only five in the nation (reftel). We were
told by one political observer that this reflected
Yaroslavl's close proximity to Moscow and its ability to
mobilize activists who could be sent to Moscow when needed.
Local Nashi leader Oleg Labudev told us his organization
receives orders from the federal level and that the reason
his organization had stayed in business was because they were
more professional in their ability to organize mass patriotic
actions. While Labudev emphasized Nashi's independence from
political parties, he said they support Medvedev and United
Russia in the upcoming elections. He told us his
organization would be organizing pickets in support of United
Russia. According to Labudev, Nashi in Yaroslavl has
approximately 200 active members but they are able to
mobilize up to 1,000 participants in mass actions.


10. (SBU) Labudev told us about two federal Nashi programs.
The first is to defend the rights of Russians and he cited
Nashi's protest actions against Estonia in response to its
decision to relocate a Soviet World War II memorial as an
example. Labudev noted that his involvement in this
particular protest action had landed him on the EU's visa
black list, something he has continued to protest by
picketing, along with other Nashi members, the EU
headquarters in Moscow. The second federal program is
referred to as "Ten to Five within Five Years," which aims to
have Russia move from among the ten most developed countries
in the world to the top five within five years. Locally,
Nashi is conducting education programs for its members on
such topics as business development.


11. (SBU) The headquarters of Nashi in Yaroslavl can best be
described as a multi-storied clubhouse decorated in patriotic
colors, with images of Nashi and Russian leaders painted on
the walls by artistic members of the movement. Nashi slogans
drawn graffiti-style share spare on the walls with a photo
gallery of its members at the Nashi summer camp at Selinger
in 2007. Their headquarters accommodates multiple offices,
space for membership meetings and a large work space in the
basement for the leader of the local movement, where our
meeting took place.

COMMENT
--------------


12. (SBU) Pressure is on Yaroslavl's new Governor and the
local United Russia party to perform much better than in the
December Duma elections. While it is clear that everything is
being done to ensure a better outcome, the reality is that
too little time has passed since the last election to move a
large number of votes into their support column. LDPR and
the Communists remain strong, which means United Russia must
find its votes elsewhere.
BURNS