RUSSIA'S EXPECTED NEGATIVE REACTION TO KOSOVO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 000462

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/19/2018
TAGS: PREL KV RS
SUBJECT: RUSSIA'S EXPECTED NEGATIVE REACTION TO KOSOVO
CONTINUES

REF: MOSCOW 445

Classified By: Ambassador William J. Burns for reasons 1.4 (b/d).


1. (C) Summary. Two days after the announcement of Kosovo's
independence, the reaction in Russia has been predictably
negative. Russian officials have continued their heated
rhetoric, repeating the usual arguments. Public reaction has
been limited so far to two tiny peaceful protests at U.S.
diplomatic missions and tough talk from the usual suspects.
The event of the day was a join statement from both houses of
parliament which came close to recognizing South Ossetia and
Abkhazia. Upper house International Affairs Committee Chair
Margelov claimed that Russia planned to treat the two
enclaves like Taiwan by opening official presences, but
stopping short of formal recognition. Putin is scheduled to
meet with Saakashvili in Moscow on the margins of the
February 21 CIS Summit. End Summary.

Parliamentary Reaction
--------------


2. (SBU) Negative Russian reaction continued in the wake of
Kosovo's declaration of independence (reftel). On February
18, Russian Duma Chairman Gryzlov and Federation Council
Chairman Mironov issued a joint statement, reiterating
Russia's view that recognition of Kosovar independence
violates international law and UNSC Resolution 1244. The
parliamentary leaders blamed western countries, "above all
the United States," for ignoring the interests of a sovereign
country and "hushing up" continuing violations of human
rights on ethnic grounds, and declared that the leaders of
these states would be "directly responsible" for the
"inevitable deterioration of, and emergence of new,
territorial conflicts." Russia, they asserted, should take
"all necessary measures" to protect the principles of
international law, justice, and security.


3. (SBU) While rejecting recognition of Kosovo and calling
upon the GOR to block its entry into international
organizations, the statement did not cross the redline of
recognizing South Ossetia and Abkhazia. It noted that "the
Kosovo situation has become an international precedent" and
that other territorial conflicts should be viewed through the
lens of the Kosovo scenario. The independent status of
Kosovo "creates the necessary prerequisite" for a new
formulation of Russia's relations with self-proclaimed states
in the former USSR, the statement asserted. South Ossetian
leader Kokoity and Abkhaz leader Bagapsh met with Gryzlov on
February 18, in closed-door session. In a press conference
later that day, the "presidents" argued that their cases for
independence were stronger, but did not indicate that they
had received any assurances of recognition.


4. (C) After a February 19 meeting with Federation Council
International Affairs Chairman Margelov, Italian diplomats
told us that Margelov asserted that Russia would adopt a
"Taiwanese" model with Abkahzia and South Ossetia. Russia
would open offices -- not embassies -- and would provide
economic ties and humanitarian aid. Margelov noted that this
would meet the need for a GOR response to Kosovo's
independence, but stressed that full recognition was not in
Russia's interests. He stated that the GOR was aware this
would "confuse" matters with Georgia, but said that
Saakashvili knew that Russia "could not remain indifferent"
and was expecting a "reasonable reaction." He said that the
GOR would also continue on the path toward closer cooperation
with Georgia. Chief of the Russian General Staff Baluyevskiy
told the press that Kosovo's independence would not affect
Russian peacekeepers in Georgia.

Public Statements
--------------


5. (SBU) Russian press reported a range of reactions, the
vast majority negative, to Kosovo's independence and
subsequent recognition:

-- MFA Deputy Foreign Minister Titov said that the
recognition of Kosovo would be a test of nations' adherence
to international laws. Russia would continue to work to
resolve Kosovo's final settlement within international
organizations, including the UNSC, OSCE, and Council of
Europe.

-- Russia's Special Envoy for the Balkans Botsan-Kharchenko
stated that Russia would use all its diplomatic and political
influence to demand the annulment of Kosovo's UDI. He did
not exclude de facto partition of Kosovo, but noted that the
continued Russian diplomatic presence in Pristina.

-- Leader of the Liberal Democratic Party Zhirinovskiy called

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Kosovo's recognition a "flagrant violation of international
law," painting Russia as the potential victim of the
"unleashing of wars to redraw borders."

-- Communist Party leader Zyuganov advocated the recognition
of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. He "demanded" that Russia
"stop yielding to NATO and the EU," stressing that Russia
must respond in kind.

-- Chechen rebel "foreign minister" Ferzauli welcomed
Kosovo's declaration of independence and supported Kosovo's
right to free itself from the state that terrorized it.
Ferzauli argued that Chechen rebels have been fighting
against "the world's most aggressive and militarized power"
for fourteen years.

Protests Insignificant
--------------


6. (SBU) On February 18, a non-approved demonstration took
place in front of the U.S. Embassy. Approximately 30 KPRF
(Communist Party) members protested U.S. interference for
about 25 minutes, leaving a "lone protester" for the rest of
the day. On February 19, there was another unsanctioned
demonstration outside the U.S. Consulate in St. Petersburg.
Around fifteen KPRF members shouted slogans before being
moved along by the police. Five members of the Eurasian
Youth Union (EYU),a nationalist, radically anti-Western
group attacked the Albanian Embassy in Moscow with eggs in
protest of Albania's support for Kosovo, later posting the
video on RUtube. Other European embassies reported no
demonstrations

Nashi to Belgrade?
--------------


7. (SBU) According to a press announcement, up to 100
members of Nashi, the Kremlin-friendly youth organization,
will apply for visas to travel to Belgrade. Nashi leaders
noted that the group would meet with youth organizations or
government representatives who represent youth in Belgrade,
but doubted they would be permitted to go to Kosovo.
BURNS