KOSOVO: RUSSIA REACTS PREDICTABLY, STOPS SHORT OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MOSCOW 000445

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/18/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV RS KV
SUBJECT: KOSOVO: RUSSIA REACTS PREDICTABLY, STOPS SHORT OF
RECOGNITION OF FROZEN CONFLICTS

Classified By: Ambassador William J. Burns: 1.4 (b, d).


1. (C) Summary: Russia responded quickly and negatively
to Kosovo's declaration of independence, with the Kremlin
and MFA labeling it illegal, illegitimate, and
destabilizing. While the joint Duma/Federation Council
statement is not expected until later today, both chairs of
the international relations committees preemptively argued
that the U.S. was intent on flouting international norms
and had created a dangerous precedent. Russian officials,
while maintaining some level of ambiguity, have sent
signals that they will increase diplomatic and economic
support for the leaders of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, but
that Russia will not "ape" Western actions by recognizing
the independence of the breakaway territories. However, a
press conference by the "presidents" and the joint
parliamentary statement can be expected to raise tensions.
The Ambassador alerted Deputy Foreign Minister Titov on the
Secretary's intent to call FM Lavrov and U.S. plans for

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recognition. Our European colleagues are waiting to engage
the Russians after GAERC. Kosovo's UDI also triggered
airing of a documentary/screed on U.S. efforts to
destabilize and overthrow governments through the promotion
of democracy. End Summary

Official Reaction: Quick, Predictable
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2. (SBU) Russia responded quickly and along
predictable lines to Kosovo's February 17
declaration of independence:

-- Minutes after the UDI, the MFA issued a
statement, in which it maintained that Kosovo's
declaration was a violation of Serbian
sovereignty, called upon the UN and NATO to
annul the decision and to take strong
administrative measures in response, demanded
an immediate session of the UN Security Council
to take "decisive action" to return to a
political settlement along the lines of UNSCR
1244, and concluded that Kosovo's actions had
increased the potential for conflict in the
Balkans and threatened to diminish the
authority of the UN. The statement reiterated
Russia's complete support for the Serbian
reaction to the announcement and demand for
respect of its territorial integrity.

-- Kremlin deputy spokesman Dmitriy Peskov
quickly followed suit. Appearing on national
television, he called the UDI an "illegitimate
act," which was "contrary to the norms of
international law." Peskov reiterated that
Russia completely understood the response of
Serbia, pointing to Belgrade's non-recognition
of the EU mission to Kosovo. Peskov expressed
respect for Belgrade's restraint and the
constructive nature of its response; in
particular, its decision not to implement an
economic blockade or sanctions. When asked on
next Russian steps, Peskov was careful to cede
the initiative to Serbia, noting that Russia
would support its Balkan partner.

-- Russian television carried Russian NATO
Ambassador Dmitriy Rogozin's characterization
of the UDI as "the beginning of the destruction
of the basic principles of international law by
NATO and the EU," and his warning that a
Pandora's box had been opened, which could lead
to a domino effect and "a transition towards
absolute chaos." Rogozin accused the
international community of "blatantly
humiliating the Serbian nation."

-- While the Duma and Federation Council will
issue a joint statement at the end of the day,
February 18, (with the statement pre-drafted by
the MFA),the chairs of the international
relations committees laid down preemptive
markers. Duma Chair Konstantin Kosachev
stressed that the aim of the U.S. and EU was to
reaffirm a de facto practice of operating
outside international law and in defiance of
the international community. Federation
Council Chair Mikhail Margelov argued that a
dangerous precedent was being established that
could redraw the political map of the Middle
East, provoking a scenario "which Europe and
the America could not even think about in their

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worst nightmare."

-- A discordant note in the storm of Russian
protest was the Russian Mufti's endorsement of
Kosovo's independence. Co-chair of the Council
of Muftis Nafigulla Ashirov was reported in the
press as underscoring that Kosovo had the right
to independence given the conflict's deep roots
and number of victims claimed in the crisis.
The Mufti took issue with efforts to "scare the
whole world with the idea that now there will
be Islamic extremism in Kosovo." Predictably,
the Russian Orthodox Church condemned the UDI
and warned that Kosovar Albanians could "not
build a peaceful and successful life at
somebody else's expense."

-- Russia's flagship NGO, Memorial, argued
that Kosovo's recognition created a dangerous
precedent that would have "irreversible
consequences," while Chair of the Moscow
Helsinki Group Lyudmila Alekseeva commented
that by "rescuing Albanians," U.S. actions
would cause Serbs to suffer.

Stirring Pot, Stopping Short of Recognition of
Frozen Conflicts
-------------- --


3. (SBU) While prominent politicians
immediately drew comparisons between Kosovo and
other separatist movements, Russian senior
officials have walked a careful line in their
statements over the implications of Kosovo's
independence for the frozen conflicts,
particularly with respect to Abkhazia and South
Ossetia.

-- In a Friday, February 15 statement
following FM Lavrov's meeting with the
"presidents" of the two breakaway territories,
the MFA noted that Russia would be "forced to
consider" Kosovo's application to Abkhazia and
South Ossetia. However, the statement then
went on to underscore Russia's "unaltered
efforts" to contribute to the peaceful
resolution of both conflicts "in the framework
of existing formats," reiterating a second time
the GOR support for settlements "within the
framework of international recognized formats."

-- In his annual press conference, also on
Friday, Putin said that Russia would not "ape"
Western actions. If someone took a "stupid and
illegal decision," he noted, that was not
reason for Russia to do the same. Then, adding
his customary note of ambiguity, Putin said
that Russia would react to Western behavior by
securing its national interests. "If they
consider themselves right in protecting their
interests in such a fashion, why shouldn't we?
But, I repeat, we will not imitate them" or, he
added, be forced to mirror-image them. "We are
prepared for this (i.e. UDI),and we know what
we will do." In a separate question, Putin
went through the standard Russian talking
points, taking issue with Kosovo's "unique"
status.

-- Appearing on the national news in the wake
of the UDI announcement, former PM Primakov --
Russia's foremost Kosovo warrior and a
bellwether, perhaps co-architect, of Kremlin
policy -- argued that the U.S. and its allies
sought to justify the 1999 NATO bombing
campaign through their recognition of Kosovo.
Primakov also warned of a "new model" of
flaunting the UN, which was a continuation of
the U.S. policy towards Iraq. However, on the
frozen conflicts, Primakov struck a cautionary
tone, echoing Putin's position that there was
no need to mirror image the Western actions,
although Russia should take steps to increase
economic ties and otherwise support the leaders
of the frozen conflicts.


4. (SBU) Based on their public comments, we
expect that during their press conference in
Moscow today, "presidents" Kokoity and Bagapsh
will call upon the UN, CIS and Russian Duma to
recognize the independence of Abkhazia and

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South Ossetia -- with one Duma member telling
us that a "formal request" from Abkhazia was
received far in advance of the UDI. While Duma
members have not tipped their hand with respect
to the draft joint declaration, both the Duma
and the Federation Council have served as
stalking horses in the past on the frozen
conflicts. However, given the line established
by Putin and reinforced by Primakov, it is
likely that official Russian reaction will fall
short of formal recognition and will be limited
to increased diplomatic and economic support.
The incremental improvements in Russian-
Georgian relations, with the press reporting
the First Deputy Transport Minister in town to
discuss the lifting of the air embargo,
together with Georgia's statement that it will
not recognize Kosovo, may help to reinforce
relative Russian restraint.

Engaging the GOR
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5. (C) In the morning of February 18, the
Ambassador spoke with Deputy Foreign Minister
Titov and explained that the Secretary would
attempt to contact FM Lavrov later in the day
to preview the U.S. intent to recognize
Kosovo's independence.


6. (C) Other European missions tell us that
they have no plans to engage the Russians
directly, at least not in Moscow. The Germans
are under instructions to hold off until after
the GAERC concludes and are focused on security
issues, given their proximity to the Serbian
Embassy where 50 demonstrators burned an
Albanian flag last night; the French are
focusing their engagement in New York; and the
British (whose relations with the GOR are still
under the cloud of the Litvinenko and British
Council blows) have no plans to reach out at a
senior level. The EU and Slovenian missions
told us they will meet with the MFA tomorrow,
following receipt of their GAERC mandate.

Flogging the "Empire of Good"
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7. (SBU) Also in the wake of Kosovo's announcement,
Russian television aired a one-hour documentary on the
"Empire of Good," detailing the U.S. commitment to use the
promotion of democracy to undermine and overthrow
governments, while extending its hegemonic reach. The
program, which was closely modeled on and borrowed from a
previous documentary, "Velvet Revolution," featured mostly
Western sources for its attack on neo-conservatism,
American militarism, and U.S. indifference to international
norms.
BURNS