SOCHI REGION FACES OLYMPIC-SIZED CHALLENGES

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 000374

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/12/2018
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM ECON SOCI RS
SUBJECT: SOCHI REGION FACES OLYMPIC-SIZED CHALLENGES

REF: A. MOSCOW 178

B. 07 MOSCOW 003316

Classified By: POL Minister Counselor Alice G. Wells. Reasons: 1.4 (B)
& (D).

Summary
--------------


1. (SBU) A meeting of Putin and his team on February 5
underscored the Kremlin's recognition that the "eyes of the
world" are on Sochi, not only for the 2014 Winter Olympic
Games themselves, but also in the way in which Russia manages
the preparations. In addition to overcoming significant
engineering, ecological, and economic challenges, Russian
authorities face problems in managing relations with a wary
populace, including national minorities whose interests
historically have been ignored by the bureaucracy. Our
preliminary assessment is that Moscow is putting pressure on
local officials to make those problems "go away" by providing
adequate compensation to homeowners on one hand and
increasing pressure on the more vocal members of the national
minorities on the other. However, efforts by the local
authorities to date seem far from effective, provoking
criticism and leaving the local mayor politically vulnerable.
End Summary.

A Stumbling Local Administration
--------------


2. (SBU) During a February 6-8 visit to Sochi EUR/RUS and
Emboff met officials from the Mayor's office and
representatives of local citizens' groups to discuss state of
preparations for the 2014 Winter Olympics. Sochi's Soviet
heritage is preserved by two hulking Brezhnevian hotels,
which are surrounded by a building boom on every horizon.
Politically, Sochi has long been a special case, separated by
the Caucasus mountains from the Kuban farmland that comprises
the bulk of Krasnodar Krai. In recent years, Krasnodar has
taken greater interest in the city and, according to local
commentators, Governor Aleksandr Tkachyov has placed "his
man," Viktor Kolodyazny, in the Mayor's office.


3. (C) In a televised interview with us, First Deputy Mayor
Konstantin Mishchenko personified a public face of
confidence, suggesting that all was "in order" and that
Olympic preparations were moving forward according to plan.
At the same time, he made clear that decision making on most
issues will be handled in Moscow, not locally. Privately,
Oleg Voyenko of the Mayor's office provided a different
picture. During a brief chat, he admitted that the state
company Olimpstroi, which will be the contractor for the
entire project, had yet to work out its procedures for
tendering projects. He reported that the Kremlin has engaged
Russia's top architectural institutes in Moscow and St.
Petersburg to provide a crash review of the city's proposed
scheme for the Olympics and to develop a new planning
process, which the government will roll out early this
summer. Press reports on Putin's Sochi meetings earlier in
the week described continued tweaking to the general plan for
the Olympic structures, changes to which (may) require the
approval of the International Olympic Committee.


4. (C) Several local commentators raised doubts that the
local administration is up to the task of dealing with those
challenges. Valeriy Suchkov, a local lawyer, activist for
the rights of homeowners in Sochi, and expert adviser to the
city's Public Chamber, said that the public had its fill of
Kolodyazniy and was likely to vote him out of office in
elections next year. Indeed, Suchkov expects Moscow to put a
more "trusted" political figure into the Mayor's office with
closer ties to the Kremlin elite. (He voiced doubt that a
local candidate could be picked because it would could upset
the power balance among local business clans.) Local press
coverage of our meeting with Mischenko had a satirical tenor
that showed the city administration as not being forthcoming
about the issues of the day.

Property Rights - Some Progress
--------------


5. (C) Confusion and a lack of trust in the local government
gave rise to public protests last fall about the process of
purchasing privately-held property for the Olympic projects.
According to Irina Gordyenko, a journalist for Novaya Gazeta
and a Sochi native, previous corrupt practices related to the
construction of commercial and resort complexes have
undermined faith in the local administration. Two cases
earlier this year further deepened popular concern about
property rights. First, the local press made much about the
eviction of Abkhaz refugees from their homes in an area in
which the Olympic village will be built. (It later turned out
that the refugees were living in a condemned building for
which they held no legal title and were relocated to other
parts of Krasnodar Krai.) Second, a fire in the local
archive meant that records documenting property ownership
were "lost," with local bureaucrats refusing to accept
alternative documentation as adequate proof of ownership.
Those concerns fueled public demonstrations last fall, as
residents called for a transparent and equitable system for
registering private property.


6. (C) Suchkov told us that the local administration
mismanaged its response to the public protests and even
launched an aggressive, but ultimately failed court case
against him. However, in recent months, the local
administration's tone has changed, in part because of
pressure from the Governor and even federal officials.
First, the Governor removed 20 city officials from their
positions for "corruption" and misuse of office. Next, the
government has established new procedures for registering
property claims that Suchkov says have gone far in mollifying
the population's most serious concerns. Residents are
cautiously optimistic, but are planning further
demonstrations to keep pressure on local officials, according
to Suchkov. Public comments by Minister of Regional
Development Dmitriy Kozak on the expected costs for
compensating property owners suggest that Moscow is planning
to pay an equitable price (ranging from $3-10 billion for an
expected 1,700 acres of privately-held land).

Potential Issues
with National Minorities
--------------


7. (C) The administration has been less successful in meeting
the expectations of the area's national minorities. Local
activist Ravza Ramazanova claims that regional officials have
stonewalled on plans to build a mosque to address the
spiritual needs of what she claims are 20,000 Muslims in the
area (including 5,000 of her Tatar brethren). She complained
that the Krasnodar Krai administration did not provide the
same funding that other regions offered to support Muslim
religious holidays and the building of mosques and schools.
Ramazanova argued that the lack of a mosque and a Muslim
cemetery was a disincentive for Muslims to move to Sochi.
Ramazanova suggested that without proper religious training,
Muslim youth were losing their identity and getting involved
in "dangerous" activities. Ramazanova said her organization
"Yasin" had been petitioning for a mosque for 14 years and
she claimed that she enjoyed the support of Tatarstan
President Shaymiev, Russian Head Mufti Gaynutdin, and other
top Muslim leaders in Moscow. Press reports suggest that
Ramazanova's wishes may be fulfilled with the building of a
mosque near the Olympic village outside Sochi -- although she
dismissed such news as familiar unfulfilled promises to the
local Muslim population.


8. (C) Murat Berzegov of the Circassian Congress told us that
he had been persecuted for his political ideas, particularly
his efforts to achieve greater autonomy and respect for his
people's language and local traditions through "legal"
methods. Though the federal government had acknowledged the
Circassians as a protected national minority 8 years ago, the
regional authorities had refused to follow suit, leading to
what Berzegov described as further popular frustration.
Instead of opening dialogue with the Congress, which had
lobbied its case through the European Parliament in
conjunction with diaspora groups in Turkey, Syria, and the
United States, Berzegov plausibly alleged that the
authorities have sought to intimidate him through beatings,
threats by FSB "veterans," and administrative penalties.
Ultimately, official pressure has forced him to abandon his
business and his case for asylum in the U.S. is under
consideration. Berzegov warned that government persecution of
"moderate nationalists" in the region has led to further
Islamization of Adygean youth, as seen by the formation of
Jamiat organizations in Maykop. He bemoaned the authorities
unwillingness to acknowledge what he called the "genocide" of
ethnic Circassians by the Imperial Russian army in 1846 after
the Russo-Turkic War. (Berzegov claims the victims were
buried in graves near the site of the planned Sochi Olympic
mountain sports complex on Krasnaya Polyana.) He lamented the
slow erosion of autonomy for the Adygean Republic, as
indicated by the withdrawal of federal ministries from the
regional capital Maykop, was fueling discontent among the
Circassian population. He voiced concern that the republic
would be subsumed into Krasnodar Krai after the 2014
Olympics.

Comment
--------------


9. (C) The situation in Sochi speaks to two broader trends
within Russian society: First, economic issues -- in this
case property rights -- continue to resonate among the
population writ large, far more so than purely "political"
issues such as freedom of speech, press, and assembly. That
said, the success of organized public protest against
suspected government malfeasance make clear the benefits of
collective action and could encourage the creations of
political organizations to protect citizen's rights.


10. (C) Second, the treatment of Ramazanova and Berzegov
illustrate the government's difficulty in resolving issues of
national and religious identity, particularly in the North
Caucasus. It is difficult to ascertain to what extent
Ramazanova and Berzegov speak for the larger communities they
claim to represent, since their respective groups are small
(about 10-15 permanent members). Berzegov's case does,
however, indicates that government authorities are unwilling
to allow him to pursue his political agenda unhindered,
suggesting at a minimum concern among the elite about
potential embarrassment by his activities -- a sensitivity
that will only increase as the Olympic events approach.
BURNS