AT INAUGURAL CONGRESS, SOLIDARITY SELECTS LEADERS

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 003637

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/14/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM RS
SUBJECT: AT INAUGURAL CONGRESS, SOLIDARITY SELECTS LEADERS
AND WAY FORWARD

REF: A. MOSCOW 3636

B. MOSCOW 3242

Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Alice G. Wells for reasons
1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: On December 12-13, the Solidarity opposition
movement held its inaugural national congress, bringing
together several political opposition and human rights
organizations. The congress elected leaders, including Garry
Kasparov and Boris Nemtsov, and also elaborated its program
to develop a European-style democracy in Russia.
Nonetheless, several key opposition figures have refused to
join Solidarity, many because of personal dislike of
Kasparov. Pro-Kremlin forces attempted to disrupt the
congress with live sheep (which subsequently died) and
sabotage tactics, but the event continued as planned. Such
provocations against a movement with negligible influence
demonstrates yet again how limited the political space is for
the opposition in Russia. End Summary.

Congress Takes Place Despite Provocateurs, Dead Sheep
-------------- --------------


2. (C) The new Solidarity opposition movement officially held
its inaugural congress December 12-13 at the Olimpeyts
complex in the northern Moscow suburb of Khimki. (Note: This
is the same location at which, on November 15, the Union of
Right Forces (SPS) held its dissolution congress. End Note.)
Fearing interference from the Kremlin or pro-Kremlin groups,
Solidarity organizers tightly guarded logistical details as
long as possible. Such secrecy stemmed from the forced
postponement of Solidarity's Moscow regional conference in
November, after three reserved venues canceled at the last
minute. At the St. Petersburg regional conference on
December 7, pro-Kremlin protesters wore anti-Kasparov shirts
and threw green dye on Yabloko's Maksim Reznik. The congress
site in Khimki was only revealed to us on December 11, and
only then through a series of intermediaries until the
event's main logistical organizer (Aleksandr Kubikov)
confirmed the details. Solidarity organizer Ilya Yashin told
us December 9 that top Solidarity leaders, including Nemtsov
and Kasparov, would not learn the event location until the
day of the congress.


3. (SBU) On December 12, according to Yashin, several
Solidarity members' mobile phones were blocked or received
floods of spam calls and text messages. At the congress site
in Khimki, delegates arriving by bus were greeted by several
sheep, brought by pro-Kremlin protesters. Grimly, many of
the sheep lay dead in the parking lot by the time the
delegates' buses arrived. Some delegates never even made it
to the congress: at the bus departure point in Moscow, some
delegates were invited to get on a bus that shanghaied them
to Krasnogorsk, on the other side of Moscow from the congress
site. As a result, the congress began one hour later than
planned. On December 13, Molodaya Rossiya (Young Russia)
protesters distributed flyers outside the conference center
while wearing monkey masks.

Leadership By Coalition
--------------


4. (SBU) Rather than a single leader, Solidarity will be
governed by a coalition structure comprising various
political and human rights organizations. The congress
elected 39 members to a Federal Political Council, which will
meet at least every two months and will serve as the
movement's main governing body. Most Political Council
members came from opposition organizations, but two Moscow
journalists, Aleksandr Goltz and Roman Dobrokhotov, also were
elected. Eleven of the 39 Political Council members came
from outside Moscow or St. Petersburg. In secret voting for
the Political Council, Nemtsov came in first place with 204
votes, while Kasparov was fifth with 186 votes.


5. (SBU) At its first meeting on December 13, the Political
Council elected 13 members of its Presidium. Presidium
members include Kasparov and three members of his United
Civil Front (OGF); former SPS leader Boris Nemtsov; former
Deputy Energy Minister Vladimir Milov; two activists from
former Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov's Russian People's
Democratic Union (RNDS); two Yabloko members; and the former
head of Moscow Region Union of Right Forces (SPS). Of the 13
Presidium members, ten are from Moscow and two from St.
Petersburg.


6. (SBU) Notably, the Political Council did not elect human
rights activist Lev Ponamarev to the Presidium, which Ilya
Yashin attributed to Ponamarev's discussion on permissible

forms of cooperation with the authorities. Oborona's Sergey
Davidis won the Presidium seat that Ponamarev was expected to
win. In February, Solidarity will hold elections for the
heads of executive committees.

Membership Goals Vague, Focused on Moscow and St. Petersburg
-------------- --------------


7. (C) Solidarity's target demographic differs depending on
with whom one talks. On December 9, Yashin told us that the
movement would focus on attracting students and pensioners
since he believed them to be the most active and having the
most time to dedicate to politics. Kasparov told the
Ambassador November 3 that Solidarity must focus on the 14
percent of the population that he considered the Russian
middle class, who he believed would become politically active
as the economic crisis deepens in Russia. On December 13,
Boris Nemtsov emphasized the importance of "active
cooperation" with trade unions. Various leaders, including
Kasparov, have told us that Solidarity excluded the banned
National Bolshevik party because its violent protesters scare
prospective members away. Nonetheless, Kasparov organized
major protests in Moscow for December 14 in coordination with
the National Bolsheviks (Ref A).


8. (C) Yashin told us that he is optimistic that Solidarity
will gain traction outside of Moscow and St. Petersburg, but
he could not explain how the movement would attract
prospective members aside from internet outreach. At the
congress were present delegates from Saratov, Voronezh,
Murmansk, Sakhalin, Irkutsk, Kostroma, Chelyabinsk, Tomsk,
and Samara.

Goals of the Movement: European-Style Democracy
-------------- --


9. (C) Echoing his November 3 remarks to the Ambassador (Ref
B),Kasparov called for the "dismantling" rather than the
destruction of the ruling regime in Russia. Delegates did
not approve Milov's "300 Steps" as the movement's program,
and the decision on the movement's full program will be
revisited in mid-March. "300 Steps" outlines goals for
guiding Russia toward a European-style democracy and away
from corruption, autocracy, and political repression.
Solidarity's goal, according to conversations with Kasparov,
Yashin, and Milov, is to wait until the economic crisis leads
to a desire in Russia for broader political change.

Fractured Solidarity: Kasparov Keeps Many Away
-------------- -


10. (C) Despite the array of political and human rights
organizations participating in Solidarity, many opposition
leaders remained conspicuously absent. Mikhail Kasyanov has
not joined, although seven activists from his RNDS now sit on
Solidarity's Political Council. RNDS member Stanislav
Kulikov told us December 12 that Kasyanov considered it safer
not to join personally, but other contacts have told us his
abstention stems from his disdain for Kasparov.


11. (C) Former Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev will not
participate, and neither will Vladimir Ryzhkov of the
outlawed Republican Party. Solidarity's Vladimir Milov told
us in October that neither would join because both are funded
by billionaire Aleksandr Lebedev, who refused to join or fund
Solidarity after the movement refused to oust Kasparov.
(Note: Milov revealed that Lebedev's other stipulation was
the exclusion of Kasyanov, which Milov said would have been
acceptable. End Note.) Ryzhkov told us November 20 that
Solidarity is only a Kasparov and Nemtsov creation doomed to
fail because "Kasparov begins new projects all the time, but
he will not change anything."

SPS and Yabloko: Help From Friends
--------------


12. (C) On December 8, President Medvedev nominated former
SPS head Nikita Belykh to become the new governor of Kirov
Oblast. This followed a public letter Belykh wrote
criticizing Kasparov for trying to "usurp" Solidarity's
leadership. Vladimir Ryzhkov confirmed November 20 that
"Belykh and Kasparov do not like each other." Former SPS
Political Council member Maria Gaidar told us November 25
that Belykh's complicity in dismantling SPS meant that he
never intended to join Solidarity and instead sought his
"reward" in a governorship. Gaidar also confirmed that she
will not join Solidarity, although she told us that she would
"help her friends (in the movement) in the ways that will be
most effective."


13. (C) Yabloko's national leadership vocally opposed
participation in Solidarity, with party chair Sergey
Mitrokhin issuing a public statement urging Yabloko members
to withdraw from the movement. His plea went ignored, and
five Yabloko members now sit on Solidarity's Political
Council, with two on the Presidium. Yabloko Youth leader and
Presidium member Yashin told us "there are two Yabloko
parties today": one focused solely on Moscow and "not able to
change over time," the other willing to engage with
"political competitors like Solidarity." Former Yabloko
chair Grigoriy Yavlinskiy told us December 9 that Solidarity
is "stupidity" and "it is not possible to make Solidarity
weaker." Solidarity, he added, is only "repeating images
from the 1990s, which Russians do not want to see."
Explaining that Yabloko members in Solidarity now regret
joining "Kasparov's organization," Yavlinskiy told us that on
December 7 two Yabloko members called Mitrokhin to ask that
the party publicly forbid its members from joining
Solidarity. Yavlinskiy interpreted this as members looking
for an honorable way to bow out of Solidarity, and Mitrokhin
did not issue the requested edict. "If we throw out everyone
who does something stupid," Yavlinskiy bemoaned, "there will
only be two people in Yabloko."

Comment
--------------


14. (C) Continued pro-Kremlin provocations against a movement
with influence as negligible as Solidarity's demonstrates yet
again how limited the political space is for the opposition
in Russia. Without access to national broadcast media and
with essentially no name recognition outside Moscow and St.
Petersburg, Solidarity will continue to operate on the
fringes of Russian political opposition. Kasparov's
polarizing role as one of the movement's leaders also will
hamper Solidarity, with competing opposition leaders
continuing to snipe from the sidelines. Such in-fighting
makes Solidarity a minimal threat to the ruling regime, but
future provocations against the movement and its leadership
should be expected nonetheless.
BEYRLE