INITIAL RUSSIAN REACTION TO OSCE MINISTERIAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 003555

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/09/2018
TAGS: PREL PARM OSCE RS
SUBJECT: INITIAL RUSSIAN REACTION TO OSCE MINISTERIAL

REF: MOSCOW 3424

Classified By: POL MC Alice G. Wells for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) Russia's MFA has not yet issued a formal statement on
the results of the OSCE ministerial, but the Russian press
focused on President Medvedev's proposal for a new European
security treaty and hailed the ministerial as an endorsement
of it. Commentators were more restrained on the concept of
the security treaty, but argued that the discussion put
Russia on equal footing with the EU and U.S. on determining
the future of European security. Preliminary indications are
that the OSCE ministerial checked the box of placing the
proposed European security treaty on the organization's
agenda. End summary.

No official comment
--------------


2. (C) The MFA's spokesman Andrei Nesterenko told the press
on December 1 that Russia viewed the ministerial as "a test
that would determine what trends dominated the OSCE --
constructive, aimed at uniting the States Parties around the
really key issues of our time, or destructive, which were
often seen as narrow foreign policy interests of individual
countries." However, Senior Counsellor Vladimir Yanin of the
MFA's OSCE desk refused to comment on how Russia's European
security treaty proposal or other interventions were received
at the OSCE Ministerial in Helsinki or whether the OSCE
passed the MFA's test. He deferred any judgment of the
meetings to Lavrov, although Yanin would not say whether the
ministry was preparing a statement or release on behalf of
Lavrov.

Press not reluctant
--------------


3. (SBU) While MFA representatives were reluctant to pass
judgment on the OSCE, the press was not. State-owned
Rossiyskaya Gazeta printed that "Europe has become ready now
to start a gradual, thorough analysis of Moscow's initiative"
for a European security treaty, pointing to the resumption of
negotiations with the EU on a Partnership and Cooperation
Agreement and the decision at the NATO ministerial to resume
cooperation. Under the heading, "Russia Determines OSCE
Agenda," business-oriented Kommersant concluded that "the
majority of the participants hailed Russian President Dmitry
Medvedev's idea to develop a new European security agreement
and suggested concentrating on it." However, the article
concluded that Russia had decided not to approach the U.S.
directly on its proposal, as "Moscow has finally given up on
the idea of reaching any agreement with the outgoing
administration and is putting all of its hopes on Obama's
team."

Russia resurges
--------------


4. (C) Not all commentators warmly embraced Medvedev's
proposal, but many noted that the discussion enhanced
Russia's position. Andrey Fedorov, Director of Political
Programs at the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy and a
former deputy foreign minister, in a Kommersant op-ed was
less firm in his support, saying "maybe a new project should
be launched, while remaining mindful of existing OSCE
mechanisms." He added that the ability of the OSCE to sign a
new declaration or adapt depended "to a great extent on
Russia's position." Sergei Kortunov, professor at the State
University for Higher Economics, told us that by placing the
proposed European security treaty before the OSCE and the
EU's member-states, Russia had, "for the first time in
decades, put forward its priorities rather than have Europe
and the U.S. impose them on us." To him, the proposal put
Russia on "equal footing" with the EU and the U.S. on
determining the future of security institutions in Europe.

Comment
--------------


5. (C) The MFA may yet issue a formal statement regarding
Russian views of the OSCE ministerial, but, as Yanin put it,
"we defer to Minister Lavrov on this matter." However,
Russian commentators have already laid the groundwork for the
MFA to declare a success in convincing OSCE members of the
need for a new European security treaty. The support of
France is now assumed, with the name of the proposal changing

MOSCOW 00003555 002 OF 002


slightly to the Medvedev-Sarkozy European security
arrangement. Accurate or not, Russia views Medvedev's
proposal as firmly on the agenda of the OSCE and in future
bilateral discussions within Europe and with the U.S.
BEYRLE