Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08MOSCOW354
2008-02-09 05:21:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Moscow
Cable title:
GAZPROM SAYS UKRAINE CUTOFF THREAT JUST A "WARNING
how-toVZCZCXRO3875 PP RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR DE RUEHMO #0354 0400521 ZNY CCCCC ZZH P 090521Z FEB 08 FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6502 INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY RUEHXD/MOSCOW POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY RHMFISS/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 000354
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR EUR/RUS, FOR EEB/ESC/IEC GALLOGLY AND WRIGHT
EUR/CARC, SCA (GALLAGHER, SUMAR)
DOE FOR HARBERT, HEGBORG, EKIMOFF
DOC FOR 4231/IEP/EUR/JBROUGHER
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/08/2018
TAGS: EPET ENRG ECON PREL RS
SUBJECT: GAZPROM SAYS UKRAINE CUTOFF THREAT JUST A "WARNING
SHOT"
Classified By: Ambassador William J. Burns for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 000354
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR EUR/RUS, FOR EEB/ESC/IEC GALLOGLY AND WRIGHT
EUR/CARC, SCA (GALLAGHER, SUMAR)
DOE FOR HARBERT, HEGBORG, EKIMOFF
DOC FOR 4231/IEP/EUR/JBROUGHER
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/08/2018
TAGS: EPET ENRG ECON PREL RS
SUBJECT: GAZPROM SAYS UKRAINE CUTOFF THREAT JUST A "WARNING
SHOT"
Classified By: Ambassador William J. Burns for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
1. (C) Gazprom's international affairs director Ivan Zolotov
told us February 8th that press accounts of Gazprom's threat
to cutoff gas to Ukraine on February 11th were correct.
However, he added that his "personal opinion" was that this
was just a "warning shot" to Ukraine in the run up to
upcoming visits of Ukrainian President Viktor Yuschenko and,
later, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. He said "Tymoshenko
started it" when she publicly demanded higher transit fees
and the elimination of intermediaries in the transport chain
of gas from Turkmenistan to Ukraine. "When the other side
makes a move, we react in kind." Zolotov said Ukraine knew
the announcement was coming and that negotiations have been
on-going.
2. (C) Zolotov repeatedly expressed his belief that gas flows
would continue uninterrupted while negotiations continue,
saying "we've resolved it before and we'll resolve it again."
He added, however, that if "worse comes to worst," Gazprom
estimates that 10-15% of supplies to Europe could be
affected. He said that this level of reduction would be
easily offset by withdrawals from storage in Europe,
including from facilities in Ukraine. Zolotov justified
Gazprom's threat, saying "we have to ring the alarm bells,
because they owe us a lot of money." He said that of the
reported $1.5 billion debt that is the cause of this latest
dispute, $500 million is for gas supplied this year while the
rest is still outstanding from last year.
3. (C) Oleg Gutsulyak, First Secretary at the Ukrainian
Embassy in Moscow, questioned the $1.5 billion figure touted
by Gazprom, but added that the embassy is not involved
directly in the negotiations. He seemed confident, however,
that there would be no supply disruptions. Former Deputy
Energy Minister Vladimir Milov, now a consultant and
outspoken Kremlin critic, was less sure that Gazprom would
restrain itself. He told us February 8th that the Kremlin
sees Tymoshenko as the enemy and politically vulnerable at
home. "They want to bury her, and this is their chance."
BURNS
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR EUR/RUS, FOR EEB/ESC/IEC GALLOGLY AND WRIGHT
EUR/CARC, SCA (GALLAGHER, SUMAR)
DOE FOR HARBERT, HEGBORG, EKIMOFF
DOC FOR 4231/IEP/EUR/JBROUGHER
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/08/2018
TAGS: EPET ENRG ECON PREL RS
SUBJECT: GAZPROM SAYS UKRAINE CUTOFF THREAT JUST A "WARNING
SHOT"
Classified By: Ambassador William J. Burns for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
1. (C) Gazprom's international affairs director Ivan Zolotov
told us February 8th that press accounts of Gazprom's threat
to cutoff gas to Ukraine on February 11th were correct.
However, he added that his "personal opinion" was that this
was just a "warning shot" to Ukraine in the run up to
upcoming visits of Ukrainian President Viktor Yuschenko and,
later, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. He said "Tymoshenko
started it" when she publicly demanded higher transit fees
and the elimination of intermediaries in the transport chain
of gas from Turkmenistan to Ukraine. "When the other side
makes a move, we react in kind." Zolotov said Ukraine knew
the announcement was coming and that negotiations have been
on-going.
2. (C) Zolotov repeatedly expressed his belief that gas flows
would continue uninterrupted while negotiations continue,
saying "we've resolved it before and we'll resolve it again."
He added, however, that if "worse comes to worst," Gazprom
estimates that 10-15% of supplies to Europe could be
affected. He said that this level of reduction would be
easily offset by withdrawals from storage in Europe,
including from facilities in Ukraine. Zolotov justified
Gazprom's threat, saying "we have to ring the alarm bells,
because they owe us a lot of money." He said that of the
reported $1.5 billion debt that is the cause of this latest
dispute, $500 million is for gas supplied this year while the
rest is still outstanding from last year.
3. (C) Oleg Gutsulyak, First Secretary at the Ukrainian
Embassy in Moscow, questioned the $1.5 billion figure touted
by Gazprom, but added that the embassy is not involved
directly in the negotiations. He seemed confident, however,
that there would be no supply disruptions. Former Deputy
Energy Minister Vladimir Milov, now a consultant and
outspoken Kremlin critic, was less sure that Gazprom would
restrain itself. He told us February 8th that the Kremlin
sees Tymoshenko as the enemy and politically vulnerable at
home. "They want to bury her, and this is their chance."
BURNS