RUSSIANS SPLIT ON FUTURE OF RELATIONS UNDER OBAMA

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 003330

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/18/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR PREL RS
SUBJECT: RUSSIANS SPLIT ON FUTURE OF RELATIONS UNDER OBAMA

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Eric Rubin for reason
1.4(d)


1. (SBU) Summary. The November 4 U.S. presidential
elections elicited great media coverage and expert commentary
in Russia, but opinions about the incoming Obama
administration have been decidedly mixed. While many
government leaders welcomed a change in U.S. leadership,
others expected the status quo. Public opinion polls
indicated that twice as many Russians favored Obama over
McCain, and three times as many preferred Democratic
leadership in the White House over Republican. Political
expert and journalist predictions varied: many anticipated
that the economic crisis would direct the Obama
administration, others believed that the President-elect's
purported lack of experience would complicate Russia-U.S.
bilateral relations, and some pointed to the enormous trust
from the international community that Senator Obama brought
with him into office. While some political party and
religious leaders applauded the decision, others reacted
cautiously. End Summary.

Government Leaders
--------------


2. (SBU) Concerning bilateral relations, Russian government
figures viewed the change in leadership through different
prisms. Medvedev candidly "pinned new hopes" on the arrival
of a new administration during talks at the Council on
Foreign Relations on November 16, stating that Russian-U.S
relations depended on mutual trust. MFA DFM Grigoriy Karasin
perceived Obama's election as "freshness in the
relationship," which would lead to constructiveness in
dealing with the challenges and threats of the 21st century.
Duma International Affairs Committee Chairman Konstantin
Kosachev hoped that Obama's election would lead to an
improvement in relations as the President-elect was "less
limited" than his opponent, yet cautioned that Vice
President-elect and "Russophobe" Joseph Biden could
negatively influence the White House. Chairman of the
Federation Council's International Affairs Committee Mikhail
Margelov considered those comprising Obama's team to be
"cold" towards Russia. Moscow Oblast Governor Boris Gromov
told Kommersant on November 3 that both Obama and McCain have
an anti-Russian policy; therefore, it did not matter who won.


Public Opinion and Latent Racism
--------------


3. (SBU) While the Russian polling agency Levada Center
found that more Russians "sympathized" with Obama (35
percent) than McCain (14 percent),the vast majority did not
have a preference (51 percent). Levada published the results
of the pre-election poll, conducted from October 24-29, on
November 11. While most respondents had trouble answering
the question (50 percent),more respondents (39 percent)
indicated that it was easier to find a common language with
Democrats than those who found relations easier with
Republicans (11 percent). When asked about the U.S.
presidents who had the best relations with Russia during
their terms of office, 28 percent cited Bill Clinton, 11
percent said George Bush, Sr., 10 percent favored Ronald
Reagan, and 8 percent preferred George Bush, Jr.


4. (C) In private conversations, Russian commentators are
prepared to concede that racism runs deep, with many Russians
stunned that a majority of Americans walked into ballot
booths prepared to vote for an African-American. There has
been little or no soul-searching in Russia prompted by the
Obama election: the prospect of a "person of Caucasus
nationality," for instance, winning a national office is a
question too absurd to ponder. On November 14, rabidly
anti-American host of the television program "Odnako" Mikhail
Leontyev shaded his commentary with racial overtones,
referring to President-elect Obama as a "black Mickey Mouse"
in an attempt to show that he will favor the same policies as
previous administrations. Opposition leader Boris Nemtsov
charged to us that Russian leaders would play subtly on the
deeply entrenched racism of their populace to continue an
anti-U.S. drumbeat. Yet, 60% of Russians -- with even higher
percentages for those under 44 years old -- surveyed in an
October 24 VTsIOM poll considered it possible that the U.S.
would elect an African-American president.

Political Experts
--------------


5. (SBU) Numerous Russian political experts saw
President-elect Obama as a positive figure for Russian-U.S.
relations. Institute of National Strategy President
Stanislav Belkovskiy commented that Obama's election would
complicate the Kremlin's efforts to play Washington and the
European Union off against each another. As a result, he
advised the Russian administration to extend a hand in
friendship and cooperation to the U.S., especially
considering Russia's dependence on the United States in
managing the economic crisis. Institute of Global Economics
and International Relations head researcher Georgiy Mirskiy
believed that Obama's election would change America's image
from a country of "stupid racists," would revamp U.S.
relations with allies in the Middle East, and disappointed
terrorists like Osama bin Laden. Political scientist and
State Duma member Sergey Markov foresaw a friendly
relationship between Obama and Medvedev, considering that
they are both Internet users, probably read the same books,
and even possibly listened to the same music.


6. (SBU) Some Russian political experts commented that
Obama's election complicated Russian-U.S. bilateral
relations. Director of the Globalization Institute Mikhail
Delyagin considered Obama's election a definite minus
compared to Senator McCain, a known quantity in Russia.
Delyagin characterized Obama as the American Gorbachev, one
who would attempt to solve American domestic problems by
reducing its international presence. He said such a policy
would destabilize America and, therefore, create chaos in
Russia. (Note: Delyagin told us privately on November 14
that Gorbachev was not pleased at the comparison. End Note).
Conservative commentators such as Aleksandr Prokhanov also
spun a Gorbachev-Obama analogy, suggesting that the
President-elect would try to "perform a miracle on an active
volcano," dragging the entire world, much less a
crisis-ridden new U.S. administration, down with his domestic
reforms. On the international scene, Prokhanov sketched his
expectations for Iraq, making specific comparisons to the
disaster caused by Gorbachev pulling troops out of
Afghanistan and Obama's intentions to withdraw troops from
Iraq. Moscow State University Professor of financial
strategy Vladimir Kvint discounted Obama's previous
management experience on November 6, saying he believed the
Obama administration "would be starting from zero" in
relations with Russia. According to Kvint, "Democrats pay
little attention to the economy," aside from the
redistribution of wealth, and pay more attention to human
rights and freedom of the press. Georgiy Mirskiy regarded
Obama as an extremely talented, open-minded individual, but
felt that Russian-U.S. diplomacy would become more difficult.


7. (SBU) Several experts professed that Obama would not
greatly influence U.S.-Russia relations. Institute of
Globalization and Social Movements Director Boris
Kagarlitskiy stated that the economic crisis -- and neither
Obama's nor Medvedev's personal decisions -- would influence
future Russian-U.S. relations. He categorized Obama as a
"dark-skinned president with the outlook of a white elitist."
Director of the Moscow VGPU Linguistic Institute Eduard
Kurlyand felt that many Russians cared more about the results
of the U.S. election than Americans did, adding that
Americans remained more preoccupied with stock indices than
campaign slogans. Kurlyand, acknowledging that the state of
bilateral relations was complex, said national and local
issues mattered more to him than events in the United States.

Journalists
--------------


8. (SBU) Russian news daily Novaya Gazeta's Vladimir
Korovkin compared President-elect Obama to President Kennedy
in a November 14 column, drawing parallels between the
demographic barriers both overcame, the hope for change that
both inspired, and the difficult political situations both
inherited after their respective electoral victories.
Korovkin dismissed claims that nothing changed after the
election, and cautioned against maintaining the same course
in relations with the new U.S. administration, characterizing
such a policy as a "colossal strategic error" that would
present Russia as a "stupid and evil hooligan." Deputy
editor of the Russian daily New Times Andrey Kolesnikov
compared the current global dynamic facing Medvedev and Obama
to the possibilities for a warming in relations presented to
Nixon and Brezhnev in the 1970s. "Russia in Global Politics"
editor Fyodor Lukyanov questioned whether relations with
Russia would be a priority of the Obama administration, and
did not expect major changes.

Opposition Leaders
--------------


9. (SBU) Against the backdrop of opposition party
restructuring in Russia, a few political party leaders
expressed differing opinions on Obama. United Civil Front
leader Garry Kasparov told Ekho Moskvy on November 4 that
Obama can begin his administration with a clean slate -- an
option that was not available to McCain -- and with the
support of millions in Africa and the Middle East before
taking office. However, European partners accustomed to
blaming global problems on the United States faced a new
dynamic after the election. Liberal Democratic Party of
Russia leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky predicted the collapse of
the United States and launched a racist attack against Obama,
claiming America elected him only "because he's black" and
peddling the idea of takeovers of France, Germany, Belgium,
and Switzerland by minority populations from the Middle East
and Caucasus. Imprisoned Yukos frontman Mikhail Khodorkovskiy
expressed expectations for a Gorbachev-era perestroika in the
United States during a November Vedomosti interview.
Controversial, dissident leader of the liberal Democratic
Union Valeriya Novodvorskaya cast Obama as a demagogue with
socialist convictions that would negatively affect the entire
world order.

Religious Figures
--------------


10. (C) Some Russian religious figures approved of the
incoming U.S. administration. Moscow's head mufti, Ravil
Gaynutdin, told the Ambassador that the election of Obama
showed Russians how "a real democracy worked" and hoped the
new administration would strengthen mutual understanding
between Russia and America. Deputy Director for External
Relations of the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) Vsevolod
Chaplin expressed hope to the Interfax news agency on
November 5 that the Obama administration would listen and pay
attention to the opinions and views of the ROC. Priest and
dissident Gleb Yakunin told us on November 14 that a
"glorious miracle" occurred when citizens elected Obama,
showing the world how progressive and loving Americans truly
were.

Comment
--------------


11. (SBU) If Medvedev's recent conciliatory comments in
Washington are an indication, the Russian government appears
ready to welcome the Obama administration for the development
of closer bilateral relations. We will continue to monitor
the situation as it develops.
BEYRLE