RUSSIA CONFIDENT AT PACE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 002852

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/23/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV COE RS
SUBJECT: RUSSIA CONFIDENT AT PACE

REF: A. PARIS 1754

B. MOSCOW 2803

Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Alice Wells for reason 1.4
(b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Russian MFA and Duma representatives are
confident that a proposal to strip the Russian delegation of
its voting rights at the Parliamentary Assembly of the
Council of Europe (PACE) will fail. However, the MFA has
developed a back-up plan to respond "tactically" to
developments. The MFA impressed upon us that the Russian
public was unhappy funding an organization that was used to
condemn Russian actions, but Russia would continue to support
Council of Europe (CoE) activities and commitments. The GOR
is equally confident that a PACE delegation that visited
Moscow September 22-23 to investigate the war in Georgia will
produce a balanced report for PACE deliberations on September
29, with van den Brande reportedly agreeing to visit
Tskhinvali twice -- one time via Vladikavkaz. Russian
protestations aside, the GOR still takes pride in its 2006
CoE chairmanship, with liberal Russian legislators viewing
the organization as a useful foil. End summary.

Russian Representation to PACE
--------------


2. (C) Alexander Kurmaz, Head of the CoE Division of the
European Cooperation Department, told us September 23 that
Russia will respond "tactically" to attempts to strip its
PACE delegation of voting rights. He was confident that the
proposal would not go forward, but he did outline four
options depending on events in Strasbourg:
- A competing proposal by a friendly delegation to suspend
the Georgian delegation's right to vote;
- Withdrawal of the Russian delegation from PACE and
denouncing the proceedings;
- Suspension, reduction, or elimination of the Russian
financial contribution to the CoE; and
- Complete Russian withdrawal from the CoE.


3. (SBU) While Kurmaz had clearly developed an alternate
strategy should events proceed against Russia at the
parliament next week, State Duma Speaker Boris Gryzlov struck
a more confident note to the press. He told ITAR-TASS on
September 23 "Let us wait and see what the situation will be
like next week. I am sure that most members will not agree
with suspending Russia's powers."

Ongoing Russian Concerns
--------------


4. (C) The tension leading up to next week's deliberations at
PACE brought to the fore ongoing Russian issues with the CoE.
Kurmaz claimed to have "a stack of letters 20 centimeters
thick" requesting Russia to withdraw from the organization.
"We contribute 30 million USD per year" to the CoE; public
opinion would rather have that money spent on bread than to
support critics using PACE and the CoE to "denounce Russia."
He pointed to Estonian and Polish members of the CoE as
particularly aggressive in attempting to use the
parliamentary assembly as an anti-Russian platform. Kurmaz
labeled efforts by some members to "reevaluate history" and
accuse the USSR of crimes were "a dramatic and systematic
threat to our participation." He charged that some countries
would not be satisfied until Russia was disassembled. While
denouncing members of "new" Europe and noting U.S. vocal
criticism at the September 11 meeting of the COM, he
nonetheless welcomed U.S. participation as observers at the
CoE because the U.S. sought to work "constructively" (Ref A).
For now, he said Russia would continue to participate in CoE
activities, including visits by the Anti-Torture Committee
and the upcoming visit of Commissioner for Human Rights
Thomas Hammarberg to Georgia and South Ossetia.

PACE Delegation Visit Sept 22-23
--------------


5. (C) Turning to the September 22-23 visit of the PACE
Delegation to Russia, South Ossetia, and Georgia headed by
Luc van den Brande to evaluate the recent conflict, Kurmaz
reported that in Moscow the delegation met with Duma Speaker
Gryzlov, the Chair of the Duma International Affairs
Committee Konstantin Kosachev, and with Deputy Chief of the
General Staff Anatoly Nogovitsyn. Kurmaz was optimistic that
the delegation would deliver a balanced report. He claimed
that the MFA had prevailed upon the delegation to change
their travel itinerary -- the delegation would now visit
Tshkinvali twice, once through Vladikavkaz without
substantive meetings and once from Tbilisi. "Only this way
can the delegation receive a balanced perspective." (Note:
Post has not yet confirmed that this change of routing

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occurred. End note.) Chairman Kosachev told reporters
September 23 that the majority of the PACE delegation had no
prejudices and would "sincerely seek to scrutinize" events.
Interfax summarized van den Brande to say at a news
conference September 23 that "both parties violated human
rights" in the recent conflict in Georgia, although he did
not specify who the parties were.

Comment
--------------


6. (C) Despite Kurmaz's posturing, Russia would withdraw from
the CoE only as a last resort. While hurt by regular
condemnations at PACE, especially on its human rights record,
the MFA still discusses with pride its 2006 chairmanship at
the CoE. Federation Council Chairman Mikhail Margelov
recently pointed out (Ref B),while arguing Russians care
little about the good opinion of the CoE, the
disenfranchisement of Russia at PACE would punish the most
liberal group of Russian legislators.
BEYRLE