TFGG01: RUSSIA REACTS STRONGLY TO NAC STATEMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 002507

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/21/2018
TAGS: NATO PGOV PREL MARR RS GE
SUBJECT: TFGG01: RUSSIA REACTS STRONGLY TO NAC STATEMENT
ON GEORGIA

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Eric S. Rubin - Reasons 1.4 (b)
and (d).


1. (C) Summary. Russia strongly condemned the North Atlantic
Council's August 19 statement on the conflict in Georgia, and
said NATO Ambassador Dmitry Rogozin would be returning to
Moscow for consultations on the future of NATO-Russian
relations. In addition, the creation of a NATO-Georgia
Commission roused suspicion in Moscow about the Alliance's
intention to provide additional military assistance to
Tbilisi. Both FM Lavrov and the MFA NATO office confirmed
that measures would be taken to limit Russia's partnership
with NATO, while several sources claimed Russia would reduce
or sever its military cooperation with the Alliance.
According to press reports, the remaining military projects
on this year's NATO-Russia Council Work Plan, including joint
military exercises, could be among the first areas of
cooperation to suffer. End Summary.

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Official MFA Reaction to NAC Statement Severe
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2. (U) FM Lavrov reacted sharply to the North Atlantic
Council's statement on the conflict in Georgia, and stated
that GOR would review its future relationship with NATO
during Ambassador Dmitriy Rogozin's consultations in Moscow
this weekend. Lavrov called the NAC's statement "biased,
subjective, and without any mention of how this all began and
who instigated the aggression." Criticizing the Alliance for
supporting the "criminal regime" in Georgia, Lavrov claimed
NATO had allowed Saakashvili to influence decision-making in
Brussels. He alleged that the Georgian President "commanded
the developed democracies in NATO to fulfill his own
ambitions." Regarding MAP for Georgia, the Foreign Minister
remarked, "I cannot call it anything other than anti-Russian
aspirations, directed in support of an aggressive regime."

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Consequences for the NATO-Russia Relationship
--------------


3. (C) MFA NATO Division Chief Andrey Rudenko told PolOff
that the Alliance had decided business would not go on as
usual, not Russia. (Note: FM Lavrov claimed Russia
concluded a week ago that its relationship with NATO would
not be "business as usual." End Note.) He said Moscow had
taken the Alliance's statement very seriously, did not opt
for this approach, and lamented the possible fall-out from
the NAC's hard line. Rudenko insinuated that Russia would
follow NATO's lead, making decisions about future cooperation
that correspond in nature and severity to decisions taken by
the Alliance. On the other hand, he acknowledged that Russia
would have to take action itself. Rudenko expected that
Ambassador Rogozin would discuss the full scale of the
NATO-Russia relationship with the Russian leadership, and
that the interagency would analyze all NATO-Russia Council
(NRC) projects.


4. (C) When asked which particular NRC projects might suffer,
Rudenko could not make any predictions, but expressed his
personal hope that cooperation on security issues, such as
the Transit Agreement permitting the transit of non-military
equipment to ISAF through Russian territory, would remain
intact. Ambassador Rogozin also commented to the press that
cooperation with Afghanistan should not be affected.
According to Rudenko, the Transit Agreement was "a flagship
project for NRC practical cooperation that helps us to fight
a threat affecting Russia and the countries in the region, as
well as NATO." Yet, Rudenko chastised Allies for thinking
they were punishing Russia by suspending cooperation in
certain areas. Cooperation, he claimed, did not only benefit
Russia, but the Alliance as well, pointing to Russian
assistance in Operation Active Endeavor as an example of
Russia's desire to assist NATO even on missions outside the
framework of the NATO-Russia Council. Moscow did not view
NATO's threats to suspend cooperation with Russia as a
punishment, adding, "We can live without it."


5. (C) Rudenko said the MFA would be paying close attention
to the newly established NATO-Georgia Commission (NGC). In
principal, he found no objections to the creation of the NGC,
noting that Russia also had a special institution for
cooperation - the NRC. However, he expressed concern that
the Alliance would use the NGC to station military forces and

MOSCOW 00002507 002 OF 002


infrastructure in Georgia. He brought up FM Lavrov's
assertion that NATO bore responsibility for the violence in
Georgia by providing Saakashvili with weapons. Turning to
Georgia's MAP aspirations, Rudenko accused the Georgian
leadership of imposing its problems with Russia on NATO. He
echoed the well-known Russian argument that MAP for Georgia
would be a serious mistake for NATO and the NATO-Russia
relationship.

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Will GOR Stop Military Cooperation with NATO?
--------------


6. (C) At an August 20 press conference, Deputy Director of
the Russian General Staff Anatoliy Nogovitsyn warned that
NATO's "peacekeeping assistance" to Georgia, including
through the NATO-Georgia Commission, would allow the Alliance
to arm Tbilisi and provide it with the means for "another
blitzkrieg." Perhaps related to this assessment, reports are
circulating that GOR will stop military cooperation with
NATO. Allegedly, MOD called the Norwegian, Spanish, and
Canadian Embassies in Moscow to inform them of this decision.
MFA NATO Division Chief Rudenko acknowledged he had read
about the phone call to the Norwegians on the internet, but
could not confirm if the reports were true, adding, "This is
all news to me." He noted that no official announcements
have been issued, and as far as he was aware, no decisions
had been taken or will be taken until Ambassador Rogozin
returns to Moscow for consultations. DFM Aleksandr Grushko
confirmed to the press that Russia would assess its military
cooperation with NATO, but did not say if GOR had already
made a decision. However, Interfax cited an "informed
military source in Moscow," who claimed Russia would cancel
the remaining 10 or so military projects on this year's
NATO-Russia Council Work Plan, including joint military
exercises. Reuters also reported this account, citing an
official in the Norwegian Ministry of Defense. French and
British sources also confirmed that MOD told them Russia
would temporarily suspend its military cooperation with NATO
for the remainder of 2008, but bilateral military programs
with individual NATO Allies would continue.
BEYRLE