Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08MOSCOW2453
2008-08-18 14:43:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Moscow
Cable title:  

TFGGO1: RUSSIA REACTS TO GEORGIA'S WITHDRAWAL FROM

Tags:  PGOV PREL PBTS MARR MOPS RS GG CIS 
pdf how-to read a cable
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O 181443Z AUG 08
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TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9555
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RUEHXD/MOSCOW POLITICAL COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
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C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 002453 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/14/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PBTS MARR MOPS RS GG CIS
SUBJECT: TFGGO1: RUSSIA REACTS TO GEORGIA'S WITHDRAWAL FROM
CIS

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Eric S. Rubin for reasons 1.4 (b
) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 002453

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/14/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PBTS MARR MOPS RS GG CIS
SUBJECT: TFGGO1: RUSSIA REACTS TO GEORGIA'S WITHDRAWAL FROM
CIS

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Eric S. Rubin for reasons 1.4 (b
) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Russian leaders have downplayed Georgia's
decision to withdraw from the Commonwealth of Independent
States (CIS). Russian Duma Deputies and Federation Council
members have argued that Georgia was only hurting itself by
withdrawing from the CIS, and that neither Russia nor the
organization itself would be adversely affected by the move.
MFA officials have stressed that they have not yet received
official word of the GOG's decision, but have hinted at
possible consequences for Georgia. Indeed, Tbilisi's move
might resonate more than officials are letting on. Russia
attaches importance to regional institutions in which it
serves as the de facto leader, and has reacted strongly to
previous Georgian threats to withdraw from the CIS.
Georgia's decision has already prompted Ukraine to reexamine
its future relationship with the Russia-dominated club. The
complete withdrawal of one, and possibly two, of its
"western-oriented" neighbors from the CIS could chip away at
Russian claims of regional hegemony. End Summary.

--------------
MFA Awaits Official Word; Will Russia React?
--------------


2. (U) Shortly after Saakashvili's August 12 announcement
that Georgia would withdraw from the CIS, Russian MFA
Spokesman Andrey Nesterenko told the news service ITAR-TASS
that neither the CIS nor the GOR had received official word
that Georgia would leave the organization. He also pointed
out that, according to the CIS charter, member states had to
notify the organization 12 months prior to withdrawal. In an
August 14 interview with the radio station Ekho Moskvy, FM
Lavrov reiterated Nesterenko's point that no official word of
Saakashvili's decision had been received, despite the
Georgian parliament's unanimous approval of the move earlier
that day. He refused comment until official notification was
received.



3. (C) According to Nesterenko, the Georgian leader was
"obviously struggling for his own political survival." He
said the Georgian leadership was "impulsive" and
"irresponsible." Nesterenko also posited Georgia would be
cutting itself off from many economic and humanitarian ties
that the CIS had cultivated. Russia has made similar
implicit threats in the past. When Georgia announced in 2006
that it was consulting with Ukraine about withdrawing from
the CIS, Russia claimed that there would be consequences for
their relationship in economic and social areas.
Furthermore, when Saakashvili announced in May 2006 that he
had asked Parliament to review the benefits of Georgia's CIS
membership, Russia responded two days later with a ban on the
import of Georgian mineral water. Now, a failure by Russia
to react to Georgia's withdrawal could be perceived as a sign
of acquiescence or weakness by other CIS member states,
particularly Ukraine.

-------------- --------------
Federation Council Members Dismiss Impact of Withdrawal
-------------- --------------


4. (U) Federation Council member Svetlana Orlova predicted
Georgia's withdrawal from the CIS would produce no negative
consequences. Despite Russia's history of trying to compel
Georgia to remain in the organization, Orlova added that
Georgia brought "nothing but scandal" to the CIS, and the
organization would be better off without it. By leaving,
"Georgia was hurting only itself." Federation Council member
Vadim Gustov echoed this sentiment, adding that Georgia was
walking away from the many trade, economic, and energy
agreements that it had negotiated within the framework of the
CIS. Various Duma Deputies, Federation Council members, and
the CIS General Secretariat issued similar statements. No
official has yet to suggest that Russia take any steps to
punish Georgia for its withdrawal from the CIS.

-------------- --------------
CIS May Not Be Affected, but Will Russia's Image Suffer?
-------------- --------------


5. (C) Vremya Novosti Political Correspondent Arkadiy Dubnov
pointed out Georgia did not join the CIS until March 1, 1994,
making it the last country to join and the first country to
leave. He told us that the CIS would be little affected by

the departure of Georgia, as Georgia had been a rather
unenthusiastic member and the CIS a rather ineffective
organization. Russia's relations with Georgia were sour
prior to the conflict in South Ossetia, and Georgia's
withdrawal from the CIS would not make much difference. Head
of the CIS and Baltic Center Leonid Vardomskiy also argued
that Russia would lose little by Georgia's withdrawal from
the CIS. Russia already had imposed an economic blockade on
Georgia, Russian exports to Georgia were at the same level as
before Saakashvili came to power, and a visa regime already
existed between the two countries, he argued.

Comment
--------------


6. (C) However, even if the CIS is moribund, Russia has
always been eager to attach importance to Moscow's leading
role in the institution and to the institution itself.
Together with the Collective Security Treaty Organization and
the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Russia sees the CIS as
a way of maintaining its dominant role in the region and its
influence on its neighbors. In comparison to the events in
South Ossetia and Abkhazia of the last week, Georgia's
withdrawal from the CIS is seen as a slight blip in
Russian-Georgian relations. However, over the long-term it
has the potential to chip away at Moscow's regional role,
especially if other states follow Ukraine's example and start
reexamining their membership, too. End Comment.
BEYRLE