TFGG01: RUSSIA FOCUSES ON SEALING DEAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 002439

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/15/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR GG RS
SUBJECT: TFGG01: RUSSIA FOCUSES ON SEALING DEAL

REF: MOSCOW 2415

Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Alice G. Wells. Reasons 1.
4(b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary. As German Chancellor Merkel arrives in
Sochi, the GOR is focusing on sealing the deal reached during
French President Sarkozy's trip, and signed by the Abkhaz and
South Ossetia leaders in Moscow on August 14. Despite press
speculation whether Russia would recognize Abkhazia and South
Ossetia's independence following Medvedev's statement that
Russia would support and guarantee any decisions made by the
people of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and Lavrov's
questioning of Georgia's territorial integrity, the GOR chose
to focus on finalizing the Six-Point Plan, noting that Moscow
would not focus "yet" on the issue of Georgia's territorial
integrity. Medvedev told servicemen August 14 that Russia's
current goal was "a definitive ceasefire," withdrawal of
Georgian troops "to their permanent positions," and a
legally-binding agreement. He intimated that Russia would
keep its peacekeepers in the region to "deter the Georgian
side," and deal with the humanitarian crisis. The MFA
blasted the U.S.-Poland missile defense deal, saying the
timing proved the system was aimed at Russia, not Iran, and
military officials threatened that Poland would now be
targeted by Russia. The Russian MOD continued to deny that
Russian troops had used heavy weapons against Gori, or had
used cluster munitions. It declared that Russian troops were
returning to barracks, and questioned what the cargo was that
the U.S. was transporting to Georgia, despite demarches to
the MFA and MOD underscoring the nature of the humanitarian
assistance. End summary.

Russia Holding Off-For Now-on Recognition
--------------


2. (U) While the press questions whether the GOR was heading
towards recognizing Abkhazia and South Ossetia's independence
following Medvedev's and Lavrov's statements August 14, the
Deputy Director of the MFA Department of Information and
Press said "Moscow won't focus on the thesis of the
territorial integrity of Georgia. Not yet. It is more
important to fulfill the plan of a political settlement, and
only after that to proceed to the discussion on the status."
Following the meeting with Medvedev August 14, Abkhaz leader
Bagapsh said he and South Ossetian leader Kokoity had not
discussed the two regions' independence in the meeting, but
the two leaders said they were sending their "Foreign
Ministers" to Moscow August 15 to "coordinate with the GOR
and discuss next steps in gaining recognition."


3. (C) Aleksandr Khramchikhin, Director of the Institute of
Strategic Assessments, told us August 15 that he believed
Russia's recognition was much more likely now to happen in
the near future, as the GOR could not return to the status
quo ante. He lamented that recognition would not be in
Moscow's best interests, as it could lead to Russia's
isolation from the international community.


4. (U) An Interfax poll taken August 10-13 showed that 80
percent of Russians were opposed to South Ossetia joining
Georgia. 41 percent supported independence; 39 percent
supported absorbing the area into Russia; and only four
percent backed South Ossetia remaining an autonomous republic
of Georgia. On measures Russia should take following the
conflict, 33 percent supported diplomatic efforts only; 27
percent were for military action against Georgia.

Focus on Completing Agreement, Securing Region
-------------- -


5. (U) In a meeting with Armed Forces servicemen who had
participated in the conflict, Medvedev stressed that Russia's
current goal was to obtain a "definitive ceasefire" by
Georgia and the withdrawal of Georgian troops to "their
permanent positions." He added that because the situation in
South Ossetia remained "very difficult," Russia was "obliged
to keep our peacekeepers in a state of constant
preparedness." This, he said, would deter the Georgian side
and allow Russia to deal with the humanitarian situation.


6. (U) On August 14, MFA spokesman Alexander Nesterenko said
that the GOR welcomed President Bush's expression of support
for the six-point plan but warned that the U.S. "should
refrain from any steps that might, directly or indirectly, be
perceived by the current Georgian leadership as the

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encouragement" for further attacks on South Ossetia or
elsewhere.


7. (U) In his daily press briefing August 15, General Staff
Deputy Head Nogovitsyn said that while Russia was planning to
withdraw its troops, he could not give an exact date yet. He
noted that several peacekeepers had been wounded since August
13 because of "actions of subversive groups" and the
clearance of mines left behind by Georgian forces. He
insisted that the Russian military was observing the relevant
principles of the six-point agreement, not resorting to the
use of force, and had stopped hostilities altogether.
Furthermore, he said that the military was organizing free
access for humanitarian aid and that he was meeting with the
International Committee of the Red Cross later on August 15
to discuss this principle. On whether Russian armed forces
had returned to their positions prior to the conflict, he
said that "this has been done," but noted that Russian
peacekeepers were taking "additional security measures" until
international mechanisms could be set up for peacekeeping.
He denied that Russia had used cluster munitions during the
conflict.

MOD Questions U.S. Aid
--------------


8. (U) On August 14, Nogovitsyn had questioned the U.S.
transport of humanitarian aid to Georgia, asking whether more
than just humanitarian aid was being sent, and suggesting
that the U.S. should allow members of the media to see
exactly what it was delivering to Georgia. On August 15, he
reiterated that the Russian military had no information on
whether the U.S. transport aircraft were carrying
humanitarian or military cargo. Nogovitsyn's comments came
after our demarche on August 15 (as well as prior demarches)
to both the MFA and MOD informing them of our intent to
provide humanitarian assistance on an on-going basis. At the
time, neither the MFA nor the MOD had any substantive
response.

Kokoity Blames the West
--------------


9. (U) Following the meeting with Medvedev August 14, Kokoity
and Bagapsh thanked Russia for its intervention. Kokoity
accused Europe and the U.S. of being complicit with Georgia.
Claiming that he had long warned about the "aggression
being prepared" against the two regions, Kokoity complained
that neither the EU nor the OSCE had listened. He went on
that what had happened "showed that Georgia had not acted
alone. And today many European countries, primarily, of
course, the United States, are also responsible for the
genocide of the small Ossetian people."

MFA, Duma Criticize Missile Defense Deal
--------------


10. (U) The MFA criticized the U.S. - Polish missile defense
signing, saying the "haste" with which the deal was signed
indicated that the system was targeted against Russia, not
Iran. Nogovitsyn said Poland, by allowing the U.S. to place
missile defense elements on its territory, was "exposing
itself to a strike - 100 percent," and "becoming a priority
target of action." Duma International Affairs Committee
Chair Konstantin Kosachev warned that the deal, more than the
disagreement over Georgia, could "set off a real escalation
of tensions in Russian-American relations." He acknowledged
that the agreement had been in the works for a long time, but
questioned the timing.
BEYRLE