TFGG01: Russian media declares war over - now what?

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 002428

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PBTS PINR PINS PNAT PREL GG RS
SUBJECT: TFGG01: Russian media declares war over - now what?

REF: A)MOSCOW 2343, B)MOSCOW 2366, C)MOSCOW 2383 D) MOSCOW 2407


1. (SBU) Summary: The Russian media decreased its coverage of the
South Ossetian conflict, shifting the focus to a post-game analysis
of the war. Many media reports examined the future of U.S.-Russian
relations after the conflict, responding to statements by President
Bush and other senior USG officials. Several outlets have opined
that Europe may prove to be a more sympathetic partner to Moscow
than Washington. The print press offered a wider, more balanced
view of the conflict, including limited criticism of specific
Russian actions (while remaining convinced that Russia acted
correctly.) Other outlets speculated on the futures of South
Ossetia and Abkhazia and Georgian president Saakashvili. End
Summary.

A defeat for Washington?
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2. (SBU) Most Russian media continued to portray the conflict in
South Ossetia and Georgia as one between Washington and Moscow, with
Moscow winning this round, although President Bush's statement on
sending a humanitarian mission to the region was interpreted as a
means of supporting Saakashvili rather than to alleviate human
suffering. Many news outlets saw a chillier relationship between
the U.S. and Russia in the immediate future. Statements by SecDef
Gates and Secretary Rice received much play, although some
newspapers (such as Gazeta, a liberal paper) did note the U.S.
emphasis against another cold war. Channel One, a state-owned
broadcaster, ignored such nuances and declared that a "diplomatic
war" was in effect between Washington and Moscow.


3. (SBU) Broadcast news and print emphasized President Medvedev's
role as commander-in-chief, featuring him in the Kremlin meeting
with generals and other high-ranking military officers, and
announced that he had signed a decree authorizing the awarding of
medals for combat during the conflict.

A place for Europe?
--------------


4. (SBU) In light of this perceived standoff between the U.S. and
Russia, Russian media looked to Europe as a possible ally in this
"diplomatic war." Nezavisimaya Gazeta, a centrist newspaper,
predicted increased influence for France as a result of French
President Sarkozy's mediation efforts and dismissed any threat to
Russia within the EU from the "Tbilisi quartet" (Poland and the
Baltic States.) Reporting of the meeting between Russian President
Medvedev and German Chancellor Merkel, the pro-Kremlin newspaper
Izvestiya declared Russia to have more "solid and predictable"
relations with Europe than the U.S. Mikhail Leontyev, a popular
anti-American television political pundit, saw Turkey as NATO's
"weakest link" and felt the South Ossetian conflict might be a way
of prying Ankara away from Washington's influence.

More balanced coverage all around, but critiques only
in print
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5. (SBU) Nezavisimaya Gazeta ran an op-ed piece criticizing the
Russian military for using out of date equipment and tactics from
the Cold War, unsuited for current warfare. Gazeta also ran an
article critical of Russian military performance in the Caucasus.
Vedomosti, an independent paper, went even further and said the war
was fought for the benefit of Russian state energy monopolies. It
said Russian foreign policy "smacks of cynicism and double
standards" when it calls for Saakashvili to go on trial for war
crimes but uses criminal methods in Chechnya. However, such
commentary is found only in print media, not/not on television. The
coverage, however, did not question Russia's fundamental right to
intervene in Georgia, and simply looked critically at aspects of the
operation and policy.

Future of the region and Saakashvili?
--------------


6. (SBU) The meeting between the leaders of South Ossetia, Abkhazia,
and President Medvedev headlined news reports and topped the news
hours, showing images of the Kremlin warmly receiving the leaders of
the two break-away republics,. . Both Izvestiya and Nezavisimaya
Gazeta noted that Russia would support any decision made by these
republics regarding their future status but within the framework of
international law. Izvestiya made clear that "... it's too early to
draw a new map of the Caucasus. Medvedev (although indirectly) has
made it understood: that unlike the Western partners (in Kosovo),
Russia will act according to the law."


7. (SBU) The frenzied attacks on Saakashvili and slowed down, but a
unanimous consensus on his criminality, his status as an American
puppet, and the level of destruction the people of South Ossetia
suffered at his hands remained. Media continued to run stories on

MOSCOW 00002428 002 OF 002


the South Ossetian victims of the conflict, with South Ossetian
leader Kokoyty declaring on Channel One and Rossiya TV that
"genocide" was committed against the Ossetian people.