AMBIGUITY OVER RUSSIA,S FUTURE RELATIONS WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 002396

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/14/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV RS EN LG LH
SUBJECT: AMBIGUITY OVER RUSSIA,S FUTURE RELATIONS WITH
POLAND, BALTIC STATES

Classified By: Acting Deputy Chief of Mission Alice Wells for
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary. During the past week's hostilities in
Georgia, the Russian MFA harshly criticized the positions of
Poland and the Baltics. Despite this criticism, the GOR has
taken no action against these countries and some Polish and
Baltic diplomats in Moscow do not believe that their
relations with Russia will seriously erode following the
conflict, although Estonian Embassy contacts tell us Russian
nationalist youth groups plan protests at Baltic and Polish
embassies in the days ahead. The first possible sign of
Russia's discontent may come if Foreign Minister Lavrov
cancels his upcoming trip to Poland. End summary.


2. (U) The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA)
sharply criticized Poland and Baltic countries for their
strong pro-Georgian support and anti-Russian statements
during the South Ossetia conflict, and threatened that
relations could worsen in the future. On August 11, MFA
Deputy Spokesman Boris Malakhov said that "statements by some
countries, including the Baltic States and Poland, about the
developments in South Ossetia and the role of Russia in these
events are cynical, untimely and unclear. Such statements
question the quality of relations between our countries and
even the schedule of top-level contacts." On August 10,
Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin also criticized the
Poland/Baltics statement, saying that it "accused Russia of
no less than pursuing an imperial revisionist policy." He
said that the Polish and Baltic Presidents "found probably
the most cynical and ill-timed forms to express such an odd
and absolutely illogical approach," and argued that "it was
precisely because of such signals that the developments in
South Ossetia started on August 7."


3. (C) Despite this harsh criticism by the Russian MFA,
diplomats in Moscow from Poland and the Baltic states have
not received any formal demarches from the MFA. MFA
Malakhov's allusion to possible changes in the schedule of
"top-level contacts" could be referring to the upcoming
September 10 visit of Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov to
Poland. Polish First Secretary on bilateral affairs Wioletta
Sokol confirmed August 13 that Poland still expected Lavrov
to visit and would continue to cooperate with Russia unless
the Russians decide to alter the terms of the relationship.
Likewise, Lithuanian acting Charge D'Affaires Laurynas
Jonusauskas said that he believed that Russian-Lithuanian
cooperation would go forward normally, but will also depend
on the reaction from the Russian side.


4. (C) On the other hand, Janis Zlamets, political
counselor at the Latvian Embassy said that "the world has
changed," and he stressed the need to understand why the
Russians acted as they did. He said he believed decisions
would be made after "emotions settle down a bit," and was not
aware of any current plans to drastically alter his country's
relationship with Russia. The Estonian acting Deputy Chief
of Mission Kari Label said that her mission has had minimal
talks with the Russians since the start of hostilities, but
she was informed that youth groups were planning 10 days of
protests in front of the Estonian Embassy beginning on August

14. She said she believed that these will be relatively
small protests and may also occur in front of the embassies
of other Baltic countries and Poland.


5. (C) Comment. At this stage, it appears the GOR has not
yet made a decision on exactly how it will react to the
position of Poland and the Baltic states on the conflict in
Georgia. The first indicator of any shift in Russian's
relations with these countries may come if Foreign Minister
Lavrov cancels his September 10 trip to Poland. End comment.
RUBIN