CFE: MORE ON BALUYEVSKIY'S EXPANDED FLANK REGIME

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 001867

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/27/2018
TAGS: PREL KCFE MARR RS
SUBJECT: CFE: MORE ON BALUYEVSKIY'S EXPANDED FLANK REGIME
PROPOSAL

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Daniel A. Russell


1. (C) Sergey Federyakov, Counselor in the MFA's Office of
Disarmament and Security Affairs, provided some details to us
on the proposal to expand Russia's flank area under the
Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty (CFE) floated by former
Chief of the General Staff Baluyevskiy after the May 15
Nato-Russia Council (NRC) meeting in Brussels. Federyakov
said the idea had been prompted by the U.S. and other NATO
CFE countries' insistence that if the flank regime were to be
eliminated for Russia, as Moscow proposes, then it would need
to be eliminated as to all other CFE members also.
Federyakov said Russia had taken into account U.S. and NATO
members' concerns that this could lead to an arms race among
the flank countries, especially in the Caucasus.


2. (C) Federyakov said the idea was a joint MOD-MFA proposal,
but did not yet have full GOF approval. The idea would be to
extend Russia's flank territory to all of "European Russia"
(i.e. west of the Urals). Thus, Russia would have the same
status as Turkey, Greece, Norway and other flank countries.
In practical terms, this would allow Russia the freedom of
movement and stationing of forces it needed to address
internal security issues, and deal with new threats such as
terrorism. He hastened to reassure us that Russia did not
currently see a need to move new forces into the flank area,
and noted that in the six months of Russia's suspension of
CFE, it had not made any significant changes to its
deployments.


3. (C) Russia would maintain the current general ceilings of
6350 tanks, 11280 ACV's, and 6315 artillery pieces
(Federyakov noted that Russia was already below these
limits),but its right to make extraordinary temporary
deployments would be reduced to the limits of the basic
temporary deployments. Thus, it would go from the current
right to deploy 459 tanks, 723 ACV's and 420 artillery pieces
to 153 tanks, 241 ACV's and 140 artillery pieces.


4. (C) Federyakov also said that while Russia currently could
ask for quotas from other countries, under the new proposal
Russia would be deprived of the right to ask for quotas or
parts of quotas. He added that Russia was also willing to
consider transparency measures, such as inspections, as
foreseen in the Adapted CFE Treaty.


5. (C) We asked how extending the flank regime to all of
western Russia would differ from simply eliminating the flank
regime for Russia, since under the new proposal Russia would
be allowed, for instance, to move all 6350 tanks anywhere,
including into the current flank area, instead of the 1300
tanks currently allowed. Federyakov said the new proposal
would maintain overall ceilings, would decrease Russia's
extraordinary deployment capabilities and eliminate Russia's
right to receive quotas, and would prevent the arms race the
west feared.

Other Outstanding Issues
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6. (C) Federyakov said the GOR wanted to hold more frequent
expert-level talks on each of the remaining issues in the
parallel actions package, particularly the definition of
substantial combat forces, while reiterating the mantra that
the GOR did not consider Moldova and Georgia issues connected
with CFE. We repeated our concerns about Russia's insistence
on collective ceilings for NATO countries, and Federyakov
responded they would "think about creative ways of dealing
with the issue." While expressing appreciation for the talks
held between A/S Fried and DVBR Director Antonov, he said the
GOR felt "two meetings in six months" was not enough. We
pointed out that A/S Fried had offered to meet Antonov in
Oslo, but the GOR had declined. Federyakov added that it
would be "difficult" for Antonov to talk about Georgia in his
July 29 meeting with A/S Fried in New York.

Medvedev to Discuss with EU?
--------------


7. (C) European embassy colleagues told us they had heard
that the MFA had been tasked to provide the Presidency with
points on CFE and the flank proposal for President Medvedev's
Summit with the EU this week. Federyakov declined to
speculate whether Medvedev would raise the issue with the
troika. Media reported that the EU representatives had been
"very interested" in hearing more about Medvedev's proposal

for a new European Security Treaty during the Russia-EU
Summit kick-off dinner June 26. When asked whether and how
CFE would fit into such a proposal, Federyakov said the
details of the proposal were still being worked out.
RUSSELL