RUSSIAN OPPOSITION TO UKRAINIAN NATO MAP UNCHANGED

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 000147

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/17/2018
TAGS: PREL NATO KCFE UP RS
SUBJECT: RUSSIAN OPPOSITION TO UKRAINIAN NATO MAP UNCHANGED

REF: KYIV 0042

Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Alice G. Wells. Reasons 1.
4(b) and (d).


1. (C) Russia's reaction to Ukraine's announcement that it
would seek a Membership Action Plan (MAP) at the NATO Summit
in Bucharest (reftel) has been negative, but relatively
low-key, reflecting the GOR's assessment that MAP is
unlikely. MFA Counselor for NATO issues Gregoriy Sumkin told
us January 17 that the MFA has not yet officially reacted to
the news, but the GOR stood fully behind Russian Ambassador
to Ukraine Chernomyrdin's comment that Russia would be forced
to "take extreme measures" if Ukraine joined NATO. MFA
spokesman Krivtsov told the press that "it was Ukraine's
business whether to join the Alliance or not. But, if
Ukraine enters NATO, we will have to review our foreign
policy to take this fact into account."


2. (C) Sumkin explained that Russia's position had not
changed: Russia was strongly opposed to NATO membership for
Ukraine and continued to believe that it would be
destabilizing for Ukraine and the region. He said that
Ukrainian NATO membership would "drastically affect"
Russian-Ukrainian relations in all spheres, including
political, economic, and military-industrial (military
assistance and arms production agreements). He admitted that
the timing of the announcement had taken the GOR by surprise,
and was aggravating, given the breadth of issues already on
the agenda for the Bucharest NATO Summit. He expressed
skepticism that a Ukrainian referendum on NATO Membership
would pass.


3. (C) Isabelle Francois, Director of the NATO Information
Office, reiterated Sumkin's comments, noting that GOR
officials had expressed doubts that Ukraine's request for a
MAP would be accepted at the Bucharest Summit. Tatyana
Parkhalina, Director of the Center for European Security,
told us she expected that if Ukraine were to join NATO,
Russia would likely withdraw completely from the Conventional
Forces in Europe Treaty (CFE) and would use the action to
engender public support for significant increases to the
military budget. Defense expert Aleksandr Golts was
skeptical that Ukraine was seriously seeking NATO membership,
claiming former Ukrainian President Kuchma had used the
prospect of NATO membership for years as a bargaining chip to
get preferential gas deals from Russia.


4. (C) Comment. Russia has made clear that Ukrainian (and
Georgian) NATO membership is a red line for them, and would
affect not only Russia's relations with those countries, but
also with the Alliance as a whole. Russia could seek to
strengthen the military capabilities of the Collective
Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Shanghai
Cooperation Organization (SCO),build up its Black Sea Fleet
further, look for new suppliers for some of its defense and
servicing systems, and cease preferential deals on energy
supplies. We understand that Ukrainian PM Tymoshenko will
travel to Moscow the week of January 21 to discuss gas
supplies and other bilateral issues. End comment.
BURNS