FRENTE AMPLIO CONGRESS FAILS TO CHOOSE OFFICIAL

UNCLAS MONTEVIDEO 000704

SIPDIS

WHA/BSC FOR MARY DASCHBACH

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL UY
SUBJECT: FRENTE AMPLIO CONGRESS FAILS TO CHOOSE OFFICIAL
CANDIDATE

REF: MONTEVIDEO 679


1. (SBU) Summary: The December 13-14 Frente Amplio (FA)
party congress designated Former Agriculture Minister and
ex-Tupamaro guerrilla, Jose Mujica, as the coalition's
official nominee, while still allowing the remaining
candidates to compete in internal elections (primaries) in
June. The Congress also finalized the FA's campaign platform,
which took a turn to the left (with a tinge of
Anti-Americanism),but not as radically as many stalwarts had
hoped. President Vazquez's favored successor, former
Minister of the Economy Danilo Astori, suffered a serious
blow in the process, coming in third in the weekend voting,
and the platform debate illustrated the Frente faithful,s
discomfort with Vazquez's pragmatic, centrist policies. We
continue to hear doubts about whether the weathered, folksy
Mujica, with his violent past, will be a competitive
candidate in general elections; however, political analysts
and pollsters currently show him in the lead for the Frente
Amplio primaries and in the autumn,s general elections. End
Summary.

Mujica wins the endorsement, but not the candidacy
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2. (U) About 2,400 delegates from over 40 parties attended
the congress on December 13-14. The designation of Jose
Mujica as the official nominee with 71% of the votes was the
highlight of the event. In the past, the FA has been able to
avoid internal elections by agreeing on a candidate during
the congress, but this year, the winner of the congress's
election will only receive an endorsement by the coalition,
not an official candidacy. Five candidates competed for the
endorsement and received the following levels of support:
Jose Mujica (71%),Marcos Carambula (43%),Danilo Astori
(24%),Daniel Martinez (22%),and Enrique Rubio (17%). Note:
Delegates can vote for more than one candidate. End note.
The final decision will be made in FA internal elections in
late June. The candidate will then select his vice
presidential running mate (reftel).


3. (U) Background: During the last presidential elections in
2004, both of the two traditional parties, the Colorados and
the Blancos, were facing massive unpopularity after the 2002
economic crisis. This led to an overwhelming victory for the
FA, including a majority in both houses of Parliament. This
year's elections are unlikely to be as clean-cut, and the
inability of the FA to choose a candidate in its congress is
evidence of that (the Frente traditionally tries to avoid
internal elections). Whichever party wins the general
elections is unlikely to enjoy a majority in the legislative
branch.

Marcos Carambula enters the ring
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4. (SBU) Mujica forged a strong majority in the FA Congress
by ensuring close coordination between his MPP faction and
the Communist Party. Current polls show him with a strong
lead in the June primaries, but a Mujica victory in the
general elections is far from certain. Some fear that the
same qualities that bolster his popularity (frankness,
effective and frequent use of local slang, brazenness) will
make him an ineffective, and even embarrassing,
representative of Uruguay on the world stage. Long time
Presidential hopeful, Danilo Astori, is widely expected to
run in the primaries, but the third place showing after
Marcos Carambula (governor of Uruguay,s second largest
department) was a serious blow. Carambula is a medical
doctor and long-time, popular politician with support from
the Communist Party, who may be viewed as a good vice
presidential candidate. Minister of Industry and Energy
Daniel Martinez (who surprisingly won the support of the
Socialist Party earlier in December) and Minister of Planning
Enrique Rubio have not yet announced if they will continue
their campaigns.

The Campaign Platform - The Most Radical Proposals Blocked
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5. (SBU) Deliberations over the Frente Amplio coalition's
campaign platform were extensive and heated. Many of the
most radical proposed campaign positions were moderated, as
the delegates (led by Minister of the Interior Daisy Tourne)
decided to give their eventual candidate as much leeway as
possible. The FA platform includes a statement opposing the
signing of a free trade agreement with the U.S. that is
"similar to that of Peru and Colombia," toning down the
original language that banned any sort of trade agreement
with the U.S. Similarly, the Congress voted to seek the

gradual removal of troops from Haiti over time, rather than
removal of all Uruguayan troops from peacekeeping missions.
Instead of banning all foreign investment, the Congress voted
to oppose foreign purchases of land. The platform also calls
for legalization of abortion; the creation of a Ministry of
Justice; electoral reform; and a referendum on the repeal of
the law on amnesty for perpetrators of abuses during the
military dictatorship of 1973-1985. The platform also
includes a provision criticizing activity in Uruguay by the
U.S. military, although the very next day the Frente Amplio
Minister of Health presided over an event celebrating the
construction of the Santa Catalina clinic (a significant
project planned and developed by Embassy Montevideo,s Office
of Defense Cooperation).

Comment
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6. Although there will still be a primary race, the FA
Congress's vote in favor of Mujica gives him a significant
edge. The need for internal elections is also an indication
of the growing schisms in the Frente Amplio coalition.
President Vazquez's veto of the FA-supported bill to legalize
abortion, his subsequent resignation from the Socialist
Party, and the failure of the FA to support his favored
candidate is further proof of the increasing divide. Despite
its incumbency and popularity, the FA's difficulty in
presenting a unified front will likely serve to weaken it in
general elections. End Comment.

Matthewman