URUGUAYAN ELECTION PRIMER

UNCLAS MONTEVIDEO 000679

SIPDIS

FOR WHA/BSC MARY DASCHBACH

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV UY
SUBJECT: URUGUAYAN ELECTION PRIMER


1. (U) This telegram is sensitive but unclassified, and not
for Internet distribution.

Summary
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2. (SBU) Uruguay will hold presidential elections in October
2009, and its campaign season has begun. This cable offers a
brief explanation of the electoral process and introduces the
likely candidates. Detailed information about specific
positions on issues of possible interest to the U.S. of the
major parties and their candidates will be provided septels.
End Summary.

The Basics: Parties and Process
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3. (U) There are three principal political parties or
movements in Uruguay: the ruling Frente Amplio (FA),which is
a coalition of political parties of the left; the National
(Blanco) Party; and the Colorado Party. The Blancos and
Colorados are Uruguay's two traditional parties. Both were
founded in the early 19th century, and are among the oldest
political parties in the world. Throughout most of Uruguay's
history, those two parties garnered about 90 percent of the
vote, with the Colorados usually in power and Blancos as the
traditional opposition. That dominance was challenged with
the founding of the FA coalition in 1971. The status quo was
further unsettled after a severe economic crisis early in
this century, which occurred under a Colorado president and
resulted in that party being relegated to Uruguay's political
wilderness. There is also an Independent Party that polls at
only 1-2 percent, but which is a possible factor in the 2009
elections.


4. (U) While all three major political organizations espouse
a strong state role, each occupies its own political niche.
Over twenty parties ranging from moderate socialists to
extreme left-wing radical groups comprise the FA coalition.
During the military dictatorship of 1973-85, the FA was
banned from political activity, and many early party members
were either killed, imprisoned or forced to live in exile.
The Blancos are generally thought of as Uruguay's
conservatives, with a center-right orientation and strong
rural representation. Colorados traditionally supported a
strong social safety net and state ownership of major
industries, although the last three Colorado administrations
opened the economy to foreign investment and privatized some
state-controlled enterprises.


5. (U) National Elections are held every five years on the
last Sunday in October, so the next elections will take place
October 25, 2009. At that time, the president and vice
president, plus all members of both houses of Uruguay's
bicameral General Assembly (a total of thirty senators and 99
deputies) are elected. In the interim, there will be an
election in June 2009 -- roughly equivalent to a one-day
distillation of the U.S. primary process -- that will
determine the selection of presidential candidates from the
Blanco and Colorado parties. The FA has traditionally been
able to come to consensus on its presidential candidate via
internal deliberations and without utilizing the primary
election process, although it is unclear whether that will be
the case during this election cycle. Several coalition
gatherings in December 2008, including the FA's National
Congress December 13-14, might clarify the composition of the
FA ticket for 2009.


6. (U) To win the presidency, a candidate must obtain a
simple majority of the votes cast. If no candidate does so
in the October elections, the top two vote-getters go
head-to-head in another election a month later, on the last
Sunday in November. Voting is obligatory for Uruguayans over
age eighteen. During Uruguay's last presidential elections
in 2004, the FA won in the first round with 50.7 percent of
the vote, followed by the Blancos with 34.1 percent and the
Colorados with 10.3 percent. However, polling indicates that
there will likely be a second round between the FA and Blanco
candidates in November 2009.

Who's Who - Candidates
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7. (SBU) Principal candidates for the upcoming elections have
emerged, and most are already fully engaged in their
campaigns.

Frente Amplio Coalition
--------------

The fight for the FA's presidential nomination has focused on
two candidates, Danilo Astori and Jose Mujica. Minister of
Industry, Energy, and Mining Daniel Martinez is emerging as a
dark horse.

- Danilo Astori: He did an admirable job as Economy
and Finance Minister in the first years of the Vazquez
government, but is now identified with sweeping tax reform
that includes the imposition of an income tax highly
unpopular with the middle class. Astori has been a leading
proponent of deepening economic ties with the U.S. President
Vazquez has supported Astori's candidacy.

- Jose Mujica: Senator Jose Mujica is a former
Tupamaro guerrilla and the leader of the leftist Movimiento
de Participacion Popular (MPP). His populist message has
made him a favorite within the Frente Amplio. However,
Mujica's history makes some analysts question his
electability in general elections.

- Daniel Martinez: Minister Martinez has a decent
record in his ministry and as a manager elsewhere (he headed
Uruguay's state-owned energy company ANCAP),and he has solid
leftist credentials. He does not carry the political baggage
of the two frontrunners, and so could possibly be chosen as a
compromise candidate.

Several others have been mentioned as presidential or vice
presidential hopefuls, including Marcos Carambula, Intendente
(administrator) of Uruguay's second-most populous department;
and Enrique Rubio, director of Uruguay's planning and budget
office.

National (Blanco) Party
--------------

- Jorge Larranaga: Senator Jorge Larranaga is the
former administrator of one of Uruguay's larger provinces,
Paysandu. He represents the center/left movement within the
party, which emphasizes a strong state. He recently stepped
down from his post as head of the party.

-Luis Alberto Lacalle Herrera: Senator Lacalle is a
lawyer, rancher, former President of the Republic (1990-95),
former Congressman (1972-73),and Senator (1984-89). His
faction is considered to the right of Larranaga's on the
political spectrum, but he himself employs a centrist message.

Colorado Party
--------------

- Pedro Bordaberry: Bordaberry, son of former
President of the Republic Juan Maria Bordaberry (1972-77),is
the current Colorado Party frontrunner. He is regarded as
dynamic and hard working. During this election cycle,
however, he has little chance of overcoming the association
with his father, whose presidency led to the military
dictatorship of 1973-85. Still, Colorados hope his dynamism
may serve to increase the size of the vote (and consequent
Parliamentary representation) of his party.

Vazquez Re-election Movement
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8. (U) President Vazquez remains the most popular politician
in Uruguay, so the possibility that he will seek reelection
has therefore been the subject of much interest and
speculation. Vazquez has stated publicly with consistency
that he is not considering re-election, although there have
been occasions -- both public and private -- in which he has
been more ambiguous about any re-election plans. At first
glance, the idea seems moot, as Uruguay's constitution limits
presidents to a single consecutive term, although there is no
limit on multiple, non-consecutive terms.


9. (U) Some Vazquez supporters, undaunted by the
constitutional prohibition of consecutive presidential terms,
are exploring ways to keep Vazquez as president. There are
basically three paths to amend Uruguay's constitution; all
would require a national plebiscite to approve a proposed
change. The first option is via a Popular Initiative, which
in Uruguay requires petitions containing signatures of ten
percent of citizens entitled to vote. Collection of
signatures is ongoing. The second option would be for an
absolute majority of Uruguay's bicameral General Assembly to
call for a national constitutional convention. This would be
a long and controversial process with uncertain effects on
Uruguay's constitution, and is therefore not considered a
likely option. Finally, Uruguay's General Assembly could
vote for the constitutional change via approval by two-thirds
of each house of the legislature (21 senators and 66 deputies
would have to vote in favor),also considered unlikely. That
a Vazquez reelection is a long shot did not stop four members
of Vazquez's cabinet, including putative FA candidate Daniel
Martinez, from publicly endorsing the idea. Representatives
of the reelection movement have said that they will proceed
until Vazquez directs them to stop, which has yet to happen.


Comment: A Strong Base for the Bilateral Relationship
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10. (SBU) While we hope that whomever emerges as Uruguay's
next president will want to work productively with the U.S.,
it is too early to tell whether some of the current
candidates would make a constructive bilateral relationship a
priority. What we do know is that the next president will
inherit a stronger and institutionally deeper partnership
than did Vazquez when he entered office. The steps forward
we have taken in areas such as trade, education, science and
technology, and counter-narcotics cooperation have resulted
in over 55 percent of Uruguayans having a positive image of
the U.S., up from 36 percent in 2003. That circumstance
alone should go far in maintaining the generally positive
course of the bilateral relationship.
Matthewman