SCENESETTER FOR TRIP TO URUGUAY OF DASD STEPHEN JOHNSON AND

UNCLAS MONTEVIDEO 000586

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

FOR DAS MCMULLEN AND DASD JOHNSON FROM AMBASSADOR BAXTER
STATE ALSO FOR WHA/BSC DASCHBACH

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OVIP PREL ECON UY
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR TRIP TO URUGUAY OF DASD STEPHEN JOHNSON AND
WHA DAS CHRISTOPHER MCMULLEN, OCT 27-30, 2008

REF: MVD 583 AND PREVIOUS


1. (U) This telegram is sensitive but unclassified, and not for
Internet distribution.

SUMMARY
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2. (SBU) Your visit comes at a time of strong and growing engagement
between the U.S. and Uruguay's left-leaning Frente Amplio (FA)
coalition government. Our areas of focus include trade, education,
science and technology, and counter-narcotics cooperation. Our
military-to-military relationship is also prospering, with
increasing cooperation as Uruguay's armed forces assume a wider
regional profile. The bilateral relationship overall is solid, and
local polling shows that over 55 percent of Uruguayans have a
positive image of the U.S., a favorable percentage for the region
and up from just 36 percent in 2003. We are working with all
segments of Uruguayan society to ensure a continuation of those
positive circumstances beyond the 2009 presidential and legislative
elections, campaigning for which has already begun. End Summary.

Uruguay Today
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3. (U) Uruguay is a stable, democratic nation of 3.3 million people,
almost half of them residing in its capital, Montevideo. Uruguay is
one of Latin America's wealthiest and most egalitarian countries,
despite a four-year long severe recession that ended in 2003, cut
personal income nearly in half and lowered Uruguay's historically
excellent socio-economic indicators.

Current Politics
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4. (SBU) President Vazquez has charted a moderate course since
taking office after the Frente Amplio's first-ever victory in
October 2004. Until its rise from opposition, the FA rallied its
followers with considerable anti-U.S. rhetoric, and both the USG and
the FA were unsure how the relationship would proceed when the FA
came to power. However, President Vazquez has consistently
demonstrated a desire for strong relations with the U.S. and a
willingness to pursue a cooperative agenda to that end, including
active trade discussions with the USG.


5. (SBU) With national elections in October 2009, the Vazquez
administration is coming into its home stretch. President Vazquez
maintains high approval ratings, and his handling of the FA
coalition of disparate parties is widely admired. He is determined
to ensure his legacy as a moderate and practical head of state, as
well as position his party for the 2009 elections. A March 2008
cabinet shake-up eased out ideologues, put in technocrats, and
placed a new emphasis on a more stable and balanced foreign policy.
Vazquez' program also focuses on social and labor policies. Our
bilateral relationship under Vazquez has been productive, but
election-year politics -- jockeying within each party for its
presidential candidacy has already begun in earnest -- might limit
the public profile of our cooperation over the next year.


Political System and 2009 Presidential Candidates
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6. (U) Uruguay's constitution institutionalizes a strong presidency,
subject to legislative and judicial checks. The constitution also
provides for a bicameral General Assembly (congress). A 30-member
Senate and 99-member Chamber of Deputies comprise the General
Assembly. Uruguay's presidents and members of both houses of
congress serve five-year terms.


7. (U) There are three major political parties in Uruguay: the
ruling Frente Amplio; the National (Blanco) Party; and the Colorado
Party. The two traditional parties, the Blancos and Colorados, were