VAZQUEZ REELECTION: TARGET OF PROPOSED

C O N F I D E N T I A L MONTEVIDEO 000027

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/23/2017
TAGS: PGOV KDEM UY
SUBJECT: VAZQUEZ REELECTION: TARGET OF PROPOSED
CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT

REF: MONTEVIDEO 1061

Classified By: Ambassador Frank E. Baxter
for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D)

SUMMARY
--------------

1. (U) SUMMARY: Talk of President Tabare Vazquez seeking
reelection in 2009 has been a central theme in media and
political circles in recent weeks. While whispers could be
heard as far back as early 2007, the cacophony of voices has
increased notably since the start of the New Year. The
Uruguayan constitution limits presidents to a single
consecutive term in office at any one time, although there is
no restriction on multiple (but separate) terms. Frente
Amplio (FA) leaders have submitted proposals to amend the
1997 constitution to allow Vazquez to run for reelection.
Voters would have to approve any change during a plebiscite
held simultaneously with the presidential vote in 2009. The
President himself has unequivocally rejected the idea, but
there remains a very public effort among many in the Frente
Amplio to convince him to reconsider. END SUMMARY.

EFFORT TO RE-DRAFT VAZQUEZ
--------------
2) (U) In early January several Ministers (including
Minister of Tourism Hector Lescano, Minister of Housing
Mariano Arana, and Minister of Labor Eduardo Bonomi)
registered public support of a 2009 Vazquez reelection.
Meanwhile, Socialist Party Senator Jose Korzeniak, a
professor of constitutional law, formally presented to the
Presidency a plan to reform the constitution that would
enable the president to be reelected to a consecutive term in
office. Korzeniak's plan would allow a president to serve a
maximum of two terms, whether consecutive or separate.
Support for reelecting Vazquez is strong and increasingly
vocal, especially among representatives of the Socialist
Party and the Uruguay Assembly Party.

VAZQUEZ SAYS NO
--------------
3) (U) Vazquez himself rejected any possibility that he
would seek reelection in a speech in June 2007. "Today...I
must tell all citizens of Uruguay that if I had the
extraordinary honor of being impelled to run for reelection,
I would not accept it." "I am not going to accept any
reelection," he added. Since that time Vazquez has avoided
the subject, neither reaffirming his earlier statement nor
reversing it. Political observers continue to speculate and
try to parse his words for an opening.

FRENTE AT RISK WITHOUT VAZQUEZ
--------------
4) (U) Three key points are raised by those who advocate for
or anticipate a Vazquez reelection. First are the results of
a December poll that showed Vazquez with an approval rating
of 52% compared to only 44% for the Frente Amplio (reftel).
Second, analysts point out a general lack of consensus within
the FA, most recently exhibited by its inability to select a
new political leader (reftel). The third point is concern
among many that both presumed front-runners to replace
Vazquez as the FA's candidate, Minister of Agriculture Jose
Mujica and Minister of Economy Danilo Astori, carry political
baggage. Conventional wisdom believes Mujica would struggle
to retain or win new votes among independents and opposition
voters. Meanwhile Astori, who maintains strong support
outside the FA, does not enjoy significant internal FA
support.

OPPOSITION REMAINS
--------------

5. (U) Both the National and Colorado parties have vocally
rejected presumed FA plans to seek reelection of Vazquez. The
president of the National party Jorge Larranaga chided,
"After pursuing the government for 30 years, and only three
years into its administration, the Frente Amplio (now) wants
to keep its power." Even within the Frente Amplio, there are
many who do not support a Vazquez reelection. The Communist
Party (PCU) and the Vertiente Artiguista Party, both members
of the FA, are strongly opposed. Meanwhile the FA's largest
bloc, the Popular Participation Movement (MPP),has not
publicly defined its position - although observers believe it
leans against reelection.

AMENDING THE CONSTITUTION
--------------

6. (U) If the Frente Amplio seeks to implement proposals to
reelect Vazquez it would require amending the constitution, a
step the FA already plans to take to implement other
government reforms.

There are three options to amend the Constitution. All

options would require a national plebiscite to approve the
proposed changes. The first option can be used for specific
and limited constitutional amendments. The second two
options can be used for major structural amendments to the
Constitution.

Option 1 - Popular Initiative - a petition by eligible
voters or members of the General Assembly presented at least
six months prior to the date of a national election. Once
the initiative is proposed, the amendment is brought before
voters simultaneous with the first round of the next national
election. An absolute majority (50%) of the votes cast is
required for approval. (e.g. In 2009 the Frente Amplio could
organize the initiative but would have to run an alternate
set of candidates for the Presidency (in addition to Vazquez)
in case the proposal is rejected (this happened in Uruguay
in 1971)). Such an initiative could be launched in two ways:

a) An initiative signed by 10% of citizens entitled to vote
(This was used in 2004 for water reforms).

b) An initiative approved by two fifths (2/5) of the total
General Assembly (52 votes). (The FA has 69 votes in
Congress.) NOTE: Korzeniak's proposal (para two) suggests
this option as the best way forward. END NOTE.

Option 2 - National Constitutional Convention - approval by
absolute majority of the General Assembly (66 votes),which
then has 90 days to convoke elections to create a 260 member
national constitutional convention. The reforms drafted and
approved by an absolute majority (131 votes) by the
constitutional convention would also require approval by
plebiscite in the next election. (FA has the necessary
votes, but this would be a long (up to two years) and
complicated process as the convention can recommend any
changes it chooses).

Option 3 - Constitutional Law - approval by two thirds (2/3)
of each house of the legislature (21 senators and 66
deputies) followed by a referendum not necessarily coinciding
with the national election (the system was used in 1996 to
modify the electoral process introducing the requirement of a
single candidate per party, a second round election
(ballotage) and establishing separate presidential and
provincial elections. (The FA does not have enough votes for
this option).

COMMENT
--------------

7. (C) COMMENT: The President's Chief of Staff Gonzalo
Fernandez told the Ambassador that Vazquez said to him there
was "no way" he would run for reelection. We consider
Fernandez a definitive source regarding Vazquez' intentions,
however, as long as the Frente Amplio struggles to identify a
strong alternative we expect continued efforts to draft
Vazquez for reelection. While a firm two-term limit is
notably distinct from other presidential term models being
circulated in Latin America, comparisons to Chavez and
Morales would be inevitable. Uruguayans are not likely to
take such a change lightly. Even if the FA and Vazquez were
to seek reelection there is no guarantee that voters would
agree. In 1971, President Jorge Pacheco Areco tried to
change the constitution and seek a second term. Pacheco
Areco won the most votes, but voters rejected the
constitutional amendment, handing the presidency instead to
Pacheco's alternate, Juan Maria Bordaberry. In the meantime,
talk of possible reelection will benefit Vazquez, emphasizing
his continued popular support and strengthening his political
mandate within the current term.

Baxter