OPPOSITION NATIONAL PARTY (BLANCOS) POISED FOR A

UNCLAS MONTEVIDEO 000232

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PINR UY
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION NATIONAL PARTY (BLANCOS) POISED FOR A
STRONG RUN IN 2009

REF: MONTEVIDEO 1061

SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Political observers consider the
opposition National Party (Blancos) well-positioned to
compete against the governing in the 2009 national elections.
The Blancos are polling a close second to the governing
Frente Amplio, with 35% and 42% respectively in March. The
poll results and voter angst over recent tax reforms bode
well for the National Party's chances today, but the
political landscape is likely to remain very fluid as the
actual candidates are identified, internal party dynamics
play out, and political parties and their factions tangle in
the coming year. Two longtime Blanco rivals will vie for the
Blanco nomination - Senator Jorge Larranaga, a self-styled
gaucho, and Former President Luis Alberto Lacalle, an urbane
internationalist. Upstart Carmelo Vidalin is also trying to
make some noise, but will likely fall short. END SUMMARY.

POLLS GIVE BLANCOS OPTISMISM
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2. (SBU) The National Party (Blancos) is polling very well
with 35% public support in an April 2008 national survey, a
figure that has been trending upward. The governing Frente
Amplio had fallen to only 42% approval in the March poll,
reinforcing many observers' beliefs that the Blancos will be
competitive in presidential elections at the end of 2009.
This is a marked change from less than a year ago, when the
Frente Amplio appeared unbeatable. Since then the
government's party has been waning in the polls and the
Blancos are making steady gains. The Blancos' leaders are
publicly and privately very optimistic about the party's
fortunes, but with more than a year before scheduled primary
elections in June 2009, much remains to be seen.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR...
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3. (SBU) Party Unity: While it's clear that the Blancos are
heading for a contested internal party election in June 2009,
their public interaction will have a big impact on the
electorate, especially independents or Frente Amplio swing
voters, in the general election. Blancos are traditionally
tough campaigners who have a history of undermining one
another, and there is no love lost between the two main
contenders, Larranaga and Lacalle. How they treat each other
is likely to shape whether voters consider the National Party
mature enough to win the election and run the country. For
now, both party leaders have remained civil. Lacalle
describes himself as "wiser and more humble" than in the
past, while Larranaga has been keeping a low profile and has
yet to officially toss his hat into the ring.


4. (SBU) Trends in Maldonado: The Department of Maldonado,
traditionally a Blanco stronghold, has become a key
swing-Department in recent elections. In 2004 the Frente
Amplio carried the Department of Maldonado with 47%. The
Blanco candidate took 45% and the Colorado 3%. However, in
an April 2008 poll, respondents preferred the Blancos over
the Frente Amplio 37% to 28%. With a fast-growing population
(many moving in from other departments),politics in
Maldonado are shifting and appear to reflect the national
trends favoring the National Party of late.


5. (SBU) Frente Amplio's fortunes: Many middle class voters
(a group that played a key role in the Frente Amplio's
victory in 2004) have suffered under policies enacted by the
current government, especially a controversial new tax reform
and increased health insurance taxes. As the Frente Amplio
balances the demands of its core constituency (working class,
pensioners, and the poor),it risks alienating swing voters.
In addition, persistent allegations of corruption among some
members of the Frente Amplio government have also tainted a
clean image the party worked to develop during the 2004
campaign.

LARRANAGA - CURRENT BLANCO FRONT RUNNER
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6. (SBU) Senator Jorge Larranaga is viewed inside and
outside the party as the current front runner to head the
Blanco ticket in 2009, although he has yet to officially
announce his intention to run. With 48% of his party's
support (according to a March 2008 poll) and longtime
Presidential ambitions, there is little doubt he will seek
the nomination. So far he has kept a low profile. There is
significant bad blood between Larranaga and fellow Blanco,
former President Lacalle. Larranaga heads the National
Alianza faction of the Blancos, which he founded in 1999 with
the purpose of removing Lacalle from office. He recently
launched the Wilson Ferreira Aldunate think tank which
political observers expect will work to shape the eventual

National Party platform ahead of elections.


7. (SBU) Larranaga was born in 1956, is a lawyer, and former
Mayor of Paysandu. He represents the center/left Wilsonista
movement and is seen as former President Lacalle's primary
competitor within the party. Larrranaga is generally viewed
as young, hard working, and a strong leader who will try to
attract Blanco Party votes which fled to the Frente Amplio in
2004 as well as disenchanted Frente Amplio supporters,
especially from among the middle class. Larranaga was the
Blanco candidate in 2004, but only carried 34% of the vote.
(Complete bio provided septel).

LACALLE - FORMER PRESIDENT SEEKS TO RETURN
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8. (SBU) Former President Luis Alberto Lacalle announced in
April 2008 that he is running for his old office. Lacalle
heads the Herrerismo faction of the National Party, which
espouses liberal economic policies such as free trade and
privatization. He has promised to revise laws enacted by the
Frente Amplio government, especially the unpopular tax reform
law. A March 2008 poll showed Lacalle with 29% of his
party's support. While he trails Larranaga in the polls
today, he has a respectable following by Uruguayan political
standards at this early date.


9. (SBU) Lacalle was President from 1990-1995, a period of
relative economic prosperity both in Uruguay and the region.
He uses the political slogan, "you live better with the
Blancos," alluding to the positive feeling many Uruguayans
have from the time of his presidency. However, his
administration was also rocked by allegations of corruption,
which led to the conviction and imprisonment of senior
government officials. Lacalle ran for the Blanco nomination
and lost to Larranaga in 2004. (Complete bio provided
septel).


VIDALIN - TRYING TO CREATE POLITICAL SPACE
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10. (SBU) Carmelo Vidalin was a long-time member of Lacalle's
Herrerismo faction, but left in February 2008 to run for
president as an independent Blanco. Vidalin is a very
popular two-term intendente (governor) of Durazno, a small
Department in the interior. Vidalin is ineligible for
reelection. While he brings a new name to the early race for
the Blanco nomination, he has not developed a strong national
following. His candidacy for president presents a chance for
him to expand his support and perhaps land a key position if
the Blancos win the election. Vidalin appeals to many of the
same young and more centrist voters as Larranaga. Some
observers believe he may draw votes away from Larranaga,
thereby reinforcing the candidacy of his former leader,
Lacalle. The March 2008 poll showed Vidalin with 11% of his
party's support. (Complete bio provided septel).

COMMENT
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11. (SBU) COMMENT: The key to the Blancos' chances in 2009
will be to force a second round in the general election,
which occurs if no party wins 50% of the vote. In a second
round, Colorado voters will be much more likely to support
the Blanco candidate over the Frente Amplio. Whether the
eventual winner in a second round is a Blanco or from Frente
Amplio, that government will have to contend with a divided
congress, whose members are apportioned based on votes in the
first round.

Matthewman