PAN AND PRI TEST MEXICO'S NEW ELECTION REFORM LAWS IN NUEVO

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MONTERREY 000559

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ECON KCRM KCOR MX
SUBJECT: PAN AND PRI TEST MEXICO'S NEW ELECTION REFORM LAWS IN NUEVO
LEON

REF: MONTERREY 172

MONTERREY 00000559 001.2 OF 003


Summary




1. (U) Summary. Nuevo Leon is the largest of the six
Mexican states holding gubernatorial elections in 2009 and will
be the first major test of the federal electoral reform passed
in November 2007. The race will also be an important measure of
the relative strength of the national PAN and PRI parties as the
PAN is eager to recapture a governorship it lost to the PRI in

2003. Improving the deteriorating security situation in Nuevo
Leon will be the leading election issue and the election
potentially will be a referendum on President Calderon's
administration. End Summary.



The New Election Process




2. (U) As the first step in the new election process,
the PAN and PRI released their guidelines for choosing their
candidates for governor. The PAN party decided to use a closed
state party election and the PRI decided to use an open state
primary. Neither party chose to use `el dedazo' or direct
designation of a candidate. The PRD has a negligible presence
in Nuevo Leon and has not announced how it will choose a
candidate.




3. (SBU) The state PAN party leadership voted 40 to 20
to use a closed election process instead of an open election
process. The PAN reasoned that a closed election would avoid
the influence of the PRI party in their internal affairs. The
State PAN President, Juan Carlos Ruiz, also privately said to
Poloff that the possibility of drug cartels influencing voters
is higher with an open election and a closed nomination process
will produce a "clean" candidate. In addition, some political
observers think that a closed primary was chosen by the PAN to
lessen the chances of nominating the current mayor of Monterrey,
Adalberto Madero, as the PAN candidate for Governor. Madero is
seen as a populist, and has been hounded by allegations of
corruption, but he led the most recent statewide poll. Those
that supported open elections, including the PAN National
President, German Martinez, claimed that the closed election
process lends itself to backroom dealing between party members
and is not in the best interests of the public. The national
PAN party still has the power to reverse the decision of the
Nuevo Leon PAN party.




4. (U) After the PAN decision to opt for a closed
selection process, the state PRI leadership unanimously decided
to have an open primary to elect their candidate. At the PRI
press conference, party leaders contrasted their decision to the
PAN's decision and portrayed their party as the more democratic
of the two. In choosing an open primary, PRI leaders pointed
out that the current PRI governor of Nuevo Leon Jose Natividad
Gonzalez Paras was elected using an open primary and won the
general election in spite of the PRI's losses in the state
legislature.




5. (U) Now that the process for determining candidates
has been decided, the election reform laws set shortened primary
and general campaign dates. Candidates will have until January
14, 2009 to formally submit their names for selection. The
primary period will run from January 15 to March 15. The
general election campaign will be held between March 16 to July

4. The election is scheduled for July 5 and the governor-elect
will take office October 5.




6. (SBU) With the new election laws, campaign
expenditures as well as the number of TV and radio commercials
are controlled. For the 2009 election, the PAN and PRI parties
are each allowed to spend nearly US$500,000 during the primary
season and nearly US$2.5 million during the general election.
The amount of TV or radio airtime allowed is determined by a
formula issued by the Federal Election Committee (IFE). The
first 30% of all airtime is divided equally among all of the
recognized parties and the remaining 70% is determined by
percentage of votes won in the previous election cycle.
Political parties do not have specific limits for print or

MONTERREY 00000559 002.2 OF 003


internet advertising. Other interest groups such as private
businesses, universities or trade unions are not allowed to
purchase campaign advertisements. According to Eduardo Guerra,
President of the Nuevo Leon State Electoral Commission (CEE),
the political parties are complying with the advertising limits.
Unlike in previous elections, the state election commission now
has the power to remove candidates if they break election laws.
Note. There are several allegations that Mayor Madero began his
pre-campaign months before the permitted time, but the CEE
continues to investigate the case and hopes to have a decision
before the primary elections. End Note.




7. (SBU) The influence of organized crime is another
risk to the campaigns. Guerra says to prevent the entry of
illicit money in political campaigns, the CEE is authorized to
audit the financial records of the political parties and
political campaigns before, during, and after the elections,
including their bank accounts. To prevent voter intimidation,
the CEE is training election monitors for each polling station
and coordinating with the national army and state and federal
police to provide security for polling stations the day of the
elections. However, as the CEE does not monitor the candidates'
personal bank accounts or properties, it would not know if
narco-traffickers bribed the candidate but did not contribute to
the campaign.



Election Issues




8. (SBU) Security and the economy are the main issues in
the upcoming elections. In a December 3 poll by Monterrey's
Milenio newspaper, 71% of respondents cited security as the
number one issue and 16% of respondents cited the economic
crisis or employment as the most important issue. Ideologically
in Nuevo Leon, the PAN and PRI are both very similar. The
candidates Poloffs have talked to all agree that security
followed by the economy are the main issues for the elections.
The candidates have similar plans to improve security by
increasing police presence, stamping out corruption and
increasing cooperation among security forces. Eloy Cantu, a
current candidate and longtime PRI politician, believes the
election will be determined by the candidate that can
demonstrate the best leadership. Rodrigo Medina, also a PRI
candidate, agrees and adds that up to 40% of voters in Nuevo
Leon are undecided until Election Day so personality will be
very important.



Leading PAN Candidates




9. (SBU) Fernando Larrazabal is currently a local
congressman and is reportedly favored to win the PAN nomination.
Larrazabal is helped by the closed primary system since he has
the backing of the majority of party members, including two
mayors from the Metro Monterrey area and many of his fellow PAN
congressmen. Larrazabal was formerly a mayor of San Nicolas and
is popular with working class voters. Some of his opponents
charge that in the past he has not been fully transparent on
financial matters.




10. (SBU) Fernando Elizondo is currently a federal senator
and a former interim governor of Nuevo Leon. Elizondo was
interim governor from March 2002 to January 2003 when the then
governor took a cabinet position in the Calderon administration.
The senator comes from a prominent Monterrey family and has
been very critical of the current governor of Nuevo Leon in
terms of fiscal responsibility and security. Elizondo is a
pragmatic leader and very well respected by his peers. Elizondo
is also a former energy secretary and therefore very familiar
with energy issues. Elizondo believes very strongly in working
with the United States to address common issues such as border
security, energy, immigration and trade. However because of the
closed primary, Elizondo will have a difficult time winning as
party's nomination since he lacks the state PAN member support
of Larrazabel. However, Elizondo does have PAN leadership
support on the national level and he is hoping that the national
PAN party intervenes to assist his candidacy.




MONTERREY 00000559 003.2 OF 003



11. (SBU) A possible spoiler candidate is Fernando
Margain. Margain is currently the mayor of San Pedro, an
affluent city in the metro Monterrey area, and a former Federal
Senator. Margain is seen as a very intelligent and strong
politician and is a credited for his very capable administration
of San Pedro. Margain is especially praised for making the San
Pedro police force the most respected of all the regional police
forces. Margain has the support of the business community and
could possibly be a compromise candidate should the Larrazabel
and Elizondo forces deadlock.




12. (SBU) The current Mayor of Monterrey Adalberto Madero
is also a contender because of his appeal to working class
voters. In the latest statewide poll taken by El Norte, Madero
has a 10 percentage point lead in popularity over the other
candidates. Madero also beat the leading PRI candidate Abel
Guerra for Mayor of Monterrey in 2006. However, because of the
PAN's closed election system Madero is not favored to win. Party
leaders feel that the corruption charges against Madero may
damage the party. Some prominent members of the Monterrey
business community have accused Madero's administration of
`corruption without limit.'



Leading PRI Candidates




13. (SBU) Abel Guerra is currently the most popular of the
PRI candidates and has enough PRI party member support to win
the PRI nomination. Guerra has been previously both a federal
and state congressman and is presently the Nuevo Leon State
Public Works Chief. Seen as an `Old Line' PRI member, Guerra is
especially popular with the lower classes in Nuevo Leon but will
have trouble winning over the support of the middle and upper
classes.




14. (SBU) The other leading PRI candidate is Rodrigo
Medina, the current Secretary General for Nuevo Leon and former
federal congressman. Medina is 36 years old and will likely
appeal to younger voters who make up over 60% of the electorate.
Medina has the support of Governor Jose Natividad Gonzalez
Paras, and the Governor often asks Medina to represent him
before key PRI constituencies such as labor unions. Gonzalez
Paras invited Medina to join his cabinet in 2007 when Medina was
a federal congressman and has been grooming him ever since. One
of the governor's advisors told Poloff that Medina also has the
support of media outlet Televisa and could gain the support of
TV Azteca. Despite these advantages, as Medina is little known
among the general public and he does not appear to have the
support of the majority of PRI party members, it will be
difficult to win because of the shortened election cycle and
spending limits. It remains to be seen if the Governor's
popularity will carry Medina. While the governor still enjoys a
62% approval rating, it is down from 82% three years ago.



Comments




15. (SBU) Comment. The gubernatorial election will be
closely watched on a national level as a test of the federal
election reforms and their impact on the national PAN and PRI
parties. The Nuevo Leon election law favors well known parties
and candidates, since underdog candidates and parties have
little time and few media spots to overcome more established
candidates and parties. Politically, the PAN and PRI
potentially will use the election as a referendum on President
Calderon. The PRI party claims poor implementation of
Calderon's policies has led to the deterioration of the security
situation. The economic crisis is not now as important in
voters' minds as the security situation but it is a growing
concern that could eventually shape the election. However, for
the most part, the effects of layoffs and tightening credit
associated with the crisis will not be felt until next year.
Neither of the two major parties have specific plans on how to
deal with the crisis but how they position themselves with the
middle and working classes will be an example for the rest of
the country. End Comment.
WILLIAMSON