SENSE OF GLOOM PERVADES NUEVO LEON PUBLIC AND PRIVATE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MONTERREY 000473

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KCRM PGOV ECON SNAR MX
SUBJECT: SENSE OF GLOOM PERVADES NUEVO LEON PUBLIC AND PRIVATE
SECTOR

REF: A) MONTERREY 438 B) 2007 MONTERREY 576 C) MONTERREY 459

MONTERREY 00000473 001.2 OF 002



1. (U) This cable is the first in a two-part series.
This first part deals with public perceptions of the worsening
security situation while the second will look at the lagging
economy.




2. (SBU) Summary. The October 11 gunshot/grenade attack
against the U.S. Consulate only deepened existing public gloom
about the security situation in Nuevo Leon. Recent public
surveys and public and private statements by private industry
and government officials reveal deep concern about narcotics
violence, kidnappings and corruption. The national leader of
the Mexican Chamber of Commerce Coparmex publicly called on
Nuevo Leon Governor Jose Natividad Gonzalez Paras to focus on
security rather than cultural festivals, and also inveighed
against a corrupt criminal justice system. For his part,
Governor Gonzalez Paras has warned against drug cartel money
infiltrating political campaigns. The sense of pessimism has
caused some leaders to consider efforts to fundamentally change
the prevailing culture. End Summary.



Violence on the Increase




3. (U) The people of Nuevo Leon had long seen Monterrey as a
safe, business oriented city immune from many of the problems of
corruption and violence common in Mexico. However, given the
rise in kidnappings and narcotics violence, this self image has
shifted. In a recent survey by the leading newspaper El Norte,
68% of the public thought that security was the biggest problem
facing the state, followed by corruption (16%). There has been
a large increase in the percentage of people who know someone
who has been the victim of a crime, rising from 19% in 2005 to
43% today, and 55% of the population fears being kidnapped.
The public generally believes that drug cartels have infiltrated
municipal police (88%),state police (86%),the federal PFP and
AFI police (80%),but not the Mexican military (48%). Moreover,
only 49% of the people would file a complaint if they were the
victim of a crime, a strong indicator of the lack of confidence
in the police. Finally, 80% of the people thought that there
was much or at least some corruption within the state
government. According to the press, the Nuevo Leon State
Secretary for Public Security Aldo Fasci admitted that 50% of
the municipal police forces have been infiltrated by narcotics
traffickers. Note. This survey occurred before the October 11
attack on the Consulate. End Note.




4. (U) Private industry representatives and civil society have
criticized Nuevo Leon Governor Gonzalez Paras' lack of focus on
pressing security issues. On October 7 Ricardo Gonzalez Sada,
the National President of the prominent business association
Coparmex, strongly denounced Governor Gonzalez Paras while the
Governor shared the podium with him. Gonzalez Sada criticized
the Governor for spending his time on cultural festivals, rather
than focusing on the fundamental issue of security. Gonzalez
Sada also attacked the local Congress for engaging in partisan
bickering rather than solving problems, and the government for
its lack of response to a corruption complaint filed by a local
NGO against Monterrey Mayor Madero. Gonzalez Sada further
denounced the justice system, arguing that it responds to
special interests, and claimed that hiring the right law firm
(with the good political connections) was more important than
the merits of the case. Governor Gonzalez Paras responded with
his normal stump speech that these were the best of times in
Nuevo Leon, citing infrastructure projects, employment creation
and foreign direct investment. Meanwhile, local leaders of the
citizens march for security (reftel A) complained that the
Governor only spends 1.2 hours per day on security, not 3 hours
as suggested by Colombian security experts. Another local NGO
complained that the Governor has never made security a priority,
echoing complaints made for years (see reftel B).



Narco-Dollars Funding Campaigns?




5. (SBU) Governor Gonzalez Paras used his October 14 annual

MONTERREY 00000473 002.2 OF 002


State of Nuevo Leon speech to warn against the risk of drug
money infiltrating the 2009 political campaigns. The Governor
urged the parties to choose candidates who were clean and were
committed to maintaining positive and progressive values.
Ironically, a subsequent press report showed that the leaders of
the local PAN, PRD and PT parties had measures in place to avoid
the injection of narcotics money into the campaign, but the
press was unable to reach the local leader of the Governor's own
PRI party. Although Poloff has heard repeated rumors that
corruption is generating money for the Mayor of Monterrey's
campaign for Governor, we have not heard specific allegations
that drug money is flowing into the political campaigns.
However, all analysts acknowledge that drug money could well
enter political campaigns, and they do not have confidence that
current electoral mechanisms can stop it.



Desire for Fundamental Changes in the Political Culture;
Getting to `Ya'




6. (U) CG and Poloff have spoken to a number of prominent
leaders who were shocked by the brazen attack on the Consulate
(see Reftel C). Mexican authorities and Consulate law
enforcement personnel are still investigating the case,
including the identity of the two assailants and the motive for
the attack. However, many people in Nuevo Leon thought that
attacking the U.S. Consulate was a line that would never be
crossed, and it greatly deepens their concern about their own
security. Those who have the means are openly talking about
leaving Monterrey (and Mexico in general) to escape the
violence.




7. (U) As the people of Nuevo Leon begin to see their city
differently, there have been several initiatives to change the
fundamental culture. The Washington-based `Culture of
Lawfulness' NGO, which provides role-playing values training,
follows the example of Sicily, where civil society successful
changed the social culture to ostracize the mafia. This NGO is
already providing training to state and local police cadets and
is working on school programs. Moreover, during a October 15-17
NGO conference on educational philanthropy, there were
additional requests to increase values inculcation through the
Culture of Lawfulness program. Similarly, another NGO,
Tierra Limpia seeks to transform Monterrey's culture through
environmental cleanups, loosely following the `broken windows'
theory of crime prevention that criminal behavior is less likely
when citizens take care of public spaces. Although obviously
these initiatives will not reverse narcotics violence alone,
they indicate a perspective that Monterrey is no longer safe,
and that major societal changes must be made to regain security.




8. (SBU) As one wealthy Monterrey real estate developer told
us, what is necessary is for the region's business elite to
collectively say `ya' (enough). Under this scenario, when
that occurred, the energetic private sector would step in and
partner with government to improve the situation. This is what
happened when the Governor's prized 2007 cultural festival began
to float adrift. Whether a late entry on the part of the
private sector would be able to reverse years of neglect of the
public security apparatus is a debatable question.




9. (U) See septel (forthcoming) for an analysis of how the
worsening economic situation.
WILLIAMSON