SRSG SEEKS USG SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN UNMIL TROOP

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MONROVIA 000916

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/14/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV UNSC ASEC MARR LI
SUBJECT: SRSG SEEKS USG SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN UNMIL TROOP
LEVELS

Classified By: Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield for Reasons 1.4 (b) a
nd (d)


1. (C) Summary: SRSG Ellen Loej is concerned that UNMIL's
ability to respond to threats will be impaired if the
peacekeeping force is drawn down further than agreed to by
the UNSC on September 29, and is seeking continued USG
support for maintaining current troop levels for the
foreseeable future. According to SRSG Loej, the recent and
unfounded rumors of a large quantity of weapons and fighters
crossing into Liberia from Cote d'Ivoire has once again
brought to the surface Liberians' unease over the fragile
nature of the peace in Liberia, and the underlying fear that
Liberia will return to war. UNMIL has been proactive in
addressing the rumors, and is making extra efforts to calm
the population. We agree that there will not be enough time
between now and next March, when the SRSG presents her
progress report to the UNSC, to assess the impact of the
present drawdown. End summary.


2. (C) SRSG Loej told Ambassador November 10 that she has
seen an increased level of anxiety recently in the population
as well as within the government. Because of recent rumors
of insurgents and weapons entering into the eastern part of
the country, the population of the Brewerville suburb of
Monrovia reacted in panic to explosions of vials brought on
by the controlled destruction of drugs, believing that
fighting had broken out in the area. Similarly, a recent
planned UNMIL crisis management exercise to relocate staff to
an alternate command center created such a nervous reaction
among the public that the SRSG decided to postpone further
exercises for the time being. She has also noticed an
unusually high level of interest by GOL officials and others
over how the unrest in eastern Congo is playing out, as if
they fear the same could happen here.


3. (C) Most importantly, UNMIL efforts to ease the tension by
increasing patrols along the border and restoring order has
demonstrated how active UNMIL forces continue to be
throughout the country. For example, UNMIL forces on
November 5 had to assist local police in the eastern town of
Zwedru to restore order following a violent protest by about
150 ex-combatants seeking compensation.


4. (C) Following her report to the council next March, the
SRSG expects some pressure from UNSC members (especially the
French) for a further reduction of UNMIL forces. The ongoing
drawdown and reconfiguration of troops as agreed to by the
UNSC on September 29, 2008 will not be completed by the time
the SRSG's next report is published. It will not be clear at
the time of the March UNSC meeting whether the new troop
levels are higher than necessary and the SRSG is concerned
that any further reductions may impair UNMIL's ability to
maintain order. The SRSG has also taken up our efforts to
press arriving Liberian PermRep Ambassador Conmany Wesseh to
be a more active participant in UN discussions on Liberia,
and take up the cause with wavering UNSC members such as
France and Costa Rica.


5. (C) The Ambassador and SRSG also discussed the importance
of distinguishing between "activation" and "operational" in
discussions about the readiness of the Armed Forces of
Liberia (AFL),as the two terms are not well understood even
within the UN system. The first AFL battalion has been
activated and the second is to be activated in December, but
neither battalion will be operational -- and able to replace
UNMIL peacekeepers -- for a minimum of two years. The SRSG
asked for support from the USG both in Washington and New
York to ensure there is no misconception that we are farther
along on the benchmark of AFL capacity than we really are.
The Ambassador agreed that we need to use AFRICOM's Deputy
Commander's upcoming visit for the December activation and
other opportunities to stress realistic timelines for
bringing the capabilities of the AFL to a level that will
allow it to begin taking over some of Liberia's security
responsibility from UNMIL. But we must remember that the AFL
numbers only 2,000 soldiers.


6. (C) Comment: The USG will be required to develop a
response for the UNSC meeting in March, and we will add this
point in our message to the transition team. SRSG Loej
appears to be seeking assurances that the USG position on
UNMIL troop strength will not change with the new
administration. Without making any specific commitments, we
have publicly and privately stated that America's commitment
to Liberia will remain strong. However, we agree with the
SRSG's view that March will be far too early to assess the
impact of the present drawdown and reconfiguration. As well,
UNMIL needs time to complete its reconfiguration; i.e.,
reducing the number of military zones to compensate for the
reduction of one battalion, before planning for any further
withdrawals.

MONROVIA 00000916 002 OF 002



THOMAS-GREENFIELD