LIBERIA: IMPACT OF RISING FOOD/AGRICULTURAL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 MONROVIA 000325

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

EEB/TPP/ABT/ATP JANET SPECK
USDA FAS OFFICE OF GLOBAL ANALYSIS AND FOR FAS/RON VERDONK

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAGR EAID ETRD EFIN PGOV PREL ECON LI
SUBJECT: LIBERIA: IMPACT OF RISING FOOD/AGRICULTURAL
COMMODITY PRICES

REF: A. A)SECSTATE 39410

B. C) 07 MONROVIA 1070


1. (SBU) Summary: Over 60% of Liberians are estimated to
live below the poverty line and price increases hit hard.
Liberia is heavily reliant on imported food, of which rice is
the most important. Imported rice supplies over half of
domestic consumption and prices at the retail level are up as
much as 50% in the past year. President Sirleaf has
announced GOL initiatives to mitigate the price increases,
but told Liberians the higher prices are likely to last a
while and they should "return to the land." There are
sufficient rice stocks to supply the market through August.


2. (SBU) Post programs should continue to focus on
supporting the GOL's poverty reduction initiatives, boosting
incomes, rebuilding infrastructure and encouraging
agriculture. In addition to steps already taken or proposed
by the GOL, relaxation of monopolistic import and
distribution systems for sensitive items could increase
availability. (Note: Reliable data on production, supply,
and demand are not available. Much of the information in
this report is based on local industry estimates, recent
surveys, or anecdotal reports. All amounts are in U.S.
dollars unless otherwise indicated. End note.) A list of
prices for comparison purposes is at paragraph 19. End
Summary

DEMAND: Rice is what counts
--------------


3. (U) Liberia imports most major food commodities,
including rice, the staple food. The primary alternative is
cassava, most of which is locally grown or imported from
neighboring countries. Fifty eight percent of domestically
consumed rice is imported, rising to 92% imported rice in
urban households. USDA reports that rice imports come to
160,000 metric tons annually (mostly from Asia). The retail
price of a 50 kg bag of the most popular variety of rice rose
from $25-30 to $30-35 in the past two months. The price has
increased 13% at the wholesale level over the past year, but
up to 50% at the retail level, according to monitoring by the
World Food Program and Embassy staff. (Note: The official
ceiling on rice prices, set by the Ministry of Commerce, is
$26-28 per bag. End note.)


4. (SBU) Even before the food price increases, hunger was
prevalent in Liberia. The FAO/WFP Crop and Food Security
Assessment carried out in early 2006 found 81% of the
population either highly or moderately vulnerable to food
insecurity. According to the Core Welfare Indicator
Questionnaire (CWIQ) conducted in 2007, almost 64% of
Liberians, an estimated 1.7 million, live below the poverty
line. The World Bank notes that a 20% increase in the price
of rice correlates with a 3-4% increase in the share of the
population in poverty. The amount spent on rice imports has
surged over the past two years, rising from $17 million in
2005 to $65 million in 2007, according to Central Bank
figures. By value, total imports of food, animals and
vegetable oil almost doubled over the same period, from $71
million to $130 million. For example, USDA reports the
wholesale price of powdered milk has doubled to $4,000 per
ton. With a majority of Liberians living below the poverty
line, the perceived dependence on rice cre
ates pressure on food security and on the government.


5. (SBU) The GOL is feeling the pressure. President
Sirleaf, in an April 14 radio address, described initiatives
to tackle the price increases, but explained that rising
prices are an international trend, due in part to demand from
larger countries and diversion of traditional food products
to biofuel. She made several concrete concessions,
announcing removal of the $2/bag tax on rice. She also
referred to plans for a Chinese agricultural team to start
training in production of large-scale mechanized rice
production and announced that the GOL is studying the
possibility of offering public land to those who are willing
to go to their communities and engage in farming. That said,
Liberia has food, and can grow more, but it is poorly
distributed. Agricultural markets have been distorted and
farmers do not have incentives to produce beyond the
subsistence level.


6. (U) Noting that "the increase in food prices will be with
us for a long time to come," President Sirleaf called on
Liberians to grow rice, cassava and plantains. Her urging,
and her example of growing rice at her own home, have not

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seemed to persuade Monrovians. The high prices should
support GOL efforts for Liberians to return to the land,
start farming, and reduce dependence on imported food. That
trend may be further encouraged by the GOL's (unrelated)
renewed enforcement of property tax collection, which will
encourage productive use of land.


7. (U) The increase in gasoline prices has been a
contributing factor, with particular impact on rural areas
where fuel prices not only increase the cost of transport and
other inputs, but reduce the number of vehicles plying the
route. The border with Guinea appears to be particularly
volatile. We have heard the Ministry of Commerce has not
been able to enforce restrictions on transporting gasoline,
cement and rice (and more recently palm oil) into Guinea
where prices are higher.

SUPPLY: Getting the food where the people are
--------------


8. (SBU) GOL and industry sources tell us there is
sufficient rice on hand to last until about August, and there
are reasons for optimism. Ministry of Agriculture crop yield
analysis forecast a good harvest. There is now evidence yet
that farmers have responded, but to encourage domestic
investment, the GOL has been providing technical services and
free inputs, such as seeds, tools, and fertilizer, directly
and via NGOs. (This included 300 mt of seed rice.) The GOL
has also put priority on rehabilitating damaged agricultural
infrastructure, and there are plans for a $30 million
investment in large-scale commercial rice production.


9. (U) The inadequate infrastructure is a major impediment
to exports and domestic trade. Essential components include
roads, warehouses and market facilities, all of which are
high priorities under the GOL's Poverty Reduction Strategy.
The USG and other donors are undertaking supply chain
analysis of the full range of factors restricting transport
of food. Liberia's land tenure system was inequitable before
the war and conflicts over land ownership have been
exacerbated by destruction of deeds and other land records
and by fraudulent sales during the social disruption. The
difficulty in confirming ownership hampers long-term
investment and access to credit.

POLITICAL IMPACT: Remembering 1979
--------------


10. (SBU) Despite the increasing price pressure, Liberia has
not experienced public protests or violence and Liberians we
talk to consistently say the memories of the aftermath of the
1979 rice riots are still too fresh for violence to be an
appealing option. However, they also note that the
frustration engendered by rising prices could inflame a
demonstration triggered by another cause.

ECONOMIC IMPACT: What is due to price increases?
-------------- --------------


11. (U) It is difficult to tease out the impact of
increasing prices from the influence of overall economic
growth as macroeconomic data are limited. The trade deficit
increased 75% from 2005 to 2007, but most of that increase
was from 2005-2006 rather than in the past year. Although
food and fuel account for most of the growth in the value of
imports (with solid contributions from machinery, transport
equipment and manufactured products),the timing indicates
the increase was due in large part to higher demand related
to the overall economic recovery. The increasing price of
rubber, which accounts for $171 million of the total $184
million in exports, has buffered impact on the trade balance.



12. (U) Liberia's traditional exports -- minerals, timber and
tree crops in addition to rubber latex -- would have provided
solid revenue had the sectors been producing. However, tree
crops, including rubber, will not resume peak production
until new trees reach maturity, in approximately five years.
Although UN timber sanctions were removed in 2006, exports
have not yet resumed. There are increasing investments in
mining but those, too, are several years from producing
export revenue.

ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT: Lots of land, lots of water
-------------- --------------


13. (U) With low population density, ample rainfall and

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almost no mechanization, the environmental impact has been
minimal. Food is easy to grow, with cassava and other
tubers, tropical fruits and fish readily available much of
the year. Of greater environmental concern is damage from
the concentration of population in Monrovia, which far
exceeds capacity of the city's infrastructure. The
President's call for Liberians to return to the land may have
the additional benefit of encouraging some of those who
sought refuge in the capital during the war to return to
rural areas.

GOVERNMENT POLICY RESPONSE: All we need is subsidized rice
-------------- --------------


14. (SBU) Rice is designated a "sensitive" commodity and has
a volatile history. It has long been subject to GOL efforts
to manipulate price and supply, which has led to periodic
shortages, hoarding and rent-seeking. The GOL is still
trying various strategies to break the perceived control of
the rice market by Lebanese importers but so far the cure
(giving a monopoly on imports to a Liberian firm) has not
worked and recently the restriction on the former importers
has been relaxed.


15. (U) The Poverty Reduction Strategy calls for expanding
agricultural production by at least 3.6% a year in 2009 and

2010. Agriculture and fisheries account for an estimated 42%
of GDP and are considered the sectors most likely to show
growth quickly. The GOL is directly supporting inputs such
as seeds and fertilizer (targeting the neediest),and has
provided 300 mt of seed rice to farmers. To improve food
security, the GOL intends to rebuild roads and storage
facilities, and develop a targeted social safety net.

IMPACT ON POST PROGRAMS: Stay the course
--------------


16. (SBU) Post's programs are focused on supporting the
GOL's poverty reduction programs, boosting incomes,
rebuilding infrastructure such as farm-to-market roads, and
encouraging agriculture. The increase in prices confirms the
validity of those choices and may, in fact, support our goals
by increasing the incentive to return to the land. A rising
frustration among Liberians at the slow pace of progress
reinforces the need for the USG (and the GOL) to continue to
focus on tangible projects with immediate benefit and to be
effective in publicizing those successes. The USG, in
partnership with the GOL and private sector, should continue
to support market development as a key step toward staple
food self reliance.

POLICY PROPOSALS: What Next?
--------------


17. (SBU) While responding to the needs of vulnerable
populations and compensating for the damage and disruption of
the war in the short-term, the GOL should continue its
initiatives to make the business climate more inviting and
remove or reduce barriers to trade. The growing economy
provides some breathing room for emergency response, and the
rising prices support ongoing policies of increasing
agricultural production and encouraging population growth
outside Monrovia.

Comment
--------------


18. (SBU) Liberia is a very fertile country, with great
potential to expand agricultural production, even in the
short term. The GOL is working with donors and looking ahead
to take steps to mitigate fallout from the rising prices.
While Liberians are unlikely to face starvation in the
absence of conflict, rice is a sensitive commodity. For many
Liberians, cheap, readily available rice is the main measure
of the government's effectiveness.


19. (U) Prices
--------------

Following, for comparison purposes, are some standard prices:

50 kg imported rice:
$30-35 "butter rice;" from $20 in 12/2007
$40-50 par-boiled; from $40 in 12/2007
50 kg domestic rice: $17 (L$245)
50 kg flour: $30-45
50 kg bag of potatoes: $10-15

MONROVIA 00000325 004 OF 004


1 gallon gasoline: $4

3-gallon vegetable oil $30
1 gallon palm oil $3-5
ROBINSON