LIBERIA: LEGISLATORS DIVIDED OVER SETTING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MONROVIA 001049

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/19/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL EAID LI
SUBJECT: LIBERIA: LEGISLATORS DIVIDED OVER SETTING
THRESHOLD FOR LEGISLATIVE DISTRICTS

REF: A. MONROVIA 826

B. MONROVIA 970

Classified By: Ambassador Thomas-Greenfield reasons 1.4 B and D.


1. (C) SUMMARY: The International Contact Group on Liberia
(ICGL) engaged the House and Senate leadership December 18 to
press them to pass the legislation needed for preparations
for the 2011 elections to begin (reftels). The Legislators
were divided over how to choose a threshold population and
appeared confused over the National Elections Commission's
(NEC) constitutionally mandated role in the redistricting
process. Representatives from less-populated counties were
concerned over the prospect of losing seats and worried over
how to explain that to their constituents. All agreed that
more debate and public outreach is needed on the issue and
that it would take time. If a threshold population is not
finalized by mid-2009, the timing of the 2011 election may be
an issue. The prospects of holding a separate constitutional
referendum before the standard election are already looking
dim. END SUMMARY.

RURAL REPS DON'T WANT TO PRESIDE OVER THEIR OWN FUNERAL


2. (SBU) The ICGL met with seven Legislators representing the
leadership of both houses December 18 in an effort to
reinforce the importance of setting the threshold population
a district needs to merit a representative in the House
following this year's census. Two of the Legislators,
including House Speaker Alex Tyler, who represent counties
that will definitely lose seats (three others represent
counties that risk losing seats) told the ICGL they were
worried about how they might explain that to their
constituents. "You're asking us to preside over our own
funeral," Tyler said. Tyler said he hoped the House could
arrive at a compromise so that no one would lose seats.
(NOTE: This is not possible mathematically without amending
the constitution, which would require a referendum. END
NOTE.) Tyler promised to bring the threshold issue on the
floor in plenary and hold public hearings on the topic, but
cautioned that finalizing the number would take time. He
said the NEC was unrealistic to think that such a sensitive
bill could be passed so quickly.

UNCLEAR ABOUT ROLE OF LEGISLATURE AND NEC


3. (C) Senate President Pro Tempore Isaac Nyenabo was
confused about the various pieces of legislation and the
constitutional mandates of NEC related to elections. He said
he did not know if the 100 seat limitation was just for the
House or if it included the Senate too. (NOTE:
Constitutionally, it is just for the House.) He also
expressed contempt that the NEC would be responsible for the
actual redistricting exercise, saying that a delicate
political task such as that should be the responsibility of
elected officials alone. (NOTE: Article 80(e) of the
Liberian Constitution clearly gives NEC that authority. END
NOTE.)

CLEAR FINANCIAL CONSTRAINTS


4. (SBU) Senator Jewel Howard Taylor, Chairman of the Senate
Committee on Elections, raised the financial implications
adding new seats in the House. There is no additional office
space inside the newly-renovated Capitol and no money left in
the budget to support even one additional member. (NOTE:
President Sirleaf told Ambassador later that day that she
would refuse to sign any legislation increasing the size of
the House because of the increased cost involved. END NOTE.)
Taylor acknowledged that it was easier for the Senate to
consider costs as each county will always be assured of its
two seats, but asked the House to be realistic in its
assessment of how much growth is possible at this point.

POSSIBLE COMPROMISE: REGISTER MIGRANTS IN THEIR HOME COUNTIES


5. (SBU) Chairman of the House Committee on Elections Gabriel
Smith suggested that one possible compromise would be to
register migrants living in Monrovia back in their counties
of origin (usually determined by ethnicity or family ties,
not actual years living in a particular place). That
compromise would boost the effective populations of the rural
counties and may prevent them from having to lose seats.
(NOTE: The Census was widely publicized in advance and many
migrants did return to their home counties to be registered
there. Others, especially those who were born in Monrovia,
stayed to be registered where they have always lived. END
NOTE.) Other Legislators present agreed the compromise idea
might soften the stalemate and allow the Legislature to move
forward on naming a threshold, but acknowledged that it would
raise other serious questions about national identity. The
Ambassador said that the citizens deserve to be represented

MONROVIA 00001049 002 OF 002


where they live and democracy depends on the Legislature
settling this issue soon.


6. (C) COMMENT: The threshold debate is highly sensitive,
especially for the members of the leadership who represent
less-populated counties. It is unlikely that the number will
be finalized in January or even in the first quarter of 2009.
Since NEC's redistricting process and subsequent voter
registration drive cannot begin without a threshold, the odds
of NEC being able to conduct a separate constitutional
referendum before the 2011 standard election are looking
increasingly slim. If the threshold is finalized before
summer, however, and if the Legislature refrains from making
the redistricting process overly political, it will still be
possible for the NEC to hold the 2011 elections on time and
possibly combine the constitutional referendum questions on
the same ballot. If the threshold question is delayed beyond
mid-2009 or the redistricting process gets contentious, then
the timing of the 2011 standard election could be in
jeopardy, even if all the constitutional referenda are
postponed.
THOMAS-GREENFIELD