NORTHERN ITALY ELECTION RESULTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MILAN 000083

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/WE, EUR/PPD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/23/2018
TAGS: PGOV IT
SUBJECT: NORTHERN ITALY ELECTION RESULTS

REF: A. MILAN 62

B. MILAN 73

C. ROME 472

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Classified By: CG Daniel Weygandt. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Berlusconi's People of Liberty (PdL) and Northern
League (LN) coalition won every region in Northern Italy
(excluding the autonomous regions of Val D'Aosta and
Trentino-Alto Adige which elect local parties). The Northern
League virtually doubled its vote share in the North, largely
at the expense of the PdL. Far left parties lost most of
their support, mainly to the benefit of the Democratic Party
(PD). Northern Italian voters shifted towards the two
coalitions, forsaking small parties outside the two blocks on
both the left and right. The resulting win for PdL-LN gives
Berlusconi a comfortable majority in the Chamber and Senate,
but also gives the Northern League a prominent position in
his government. Dissatisfaction with the Prodi center-left
government pushed voters to the right, but a weariness with
politics as usual, and lackluster memories of Berlusconi's
previous government drove a significant share of Forza Italia
voters to support the Northern League. The Northern League's
three major campaign themes, fiscal federalism, security, and
immigration reform, were appealing to Northern voters and
pressure will mount on Berlusconi to incorporate them, in
some form, in his government's program. End summary.


2. (U) Note: The results discussed below are those of the
Senate vote, more significant than the Chamber vote because
the majority is calculated on a regional basis rather than at
the national level. PdL is Berlusconi's new party, primarily
composed of the Forza Italia (FI) and National Alliance (AN)
parties that ran in the 2006 election. Similarly, PD is
mainly the merger of the Democrats of the Left (DS) and the
Daisy (Margherita). The far left refers to the parties that
ran as the Rainbow of the Left in this election and as the
Reformed Communists, the Italian Communist Party and the
Greens in 2006. The 2006 results from these constituent
parties are lumped together below to compare to the PdL, PD
and far left results per general practice in media and
political circles in Italy. End note.

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Lombardy
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3. (C) While the PdL-LN coalition trounced the PD-Italy of
Values (IdV) block by 55.12% to 32.02% in the Lombardy Region
Senate vote, the results for individual parties are telling.
The far left lost more than 8 percentage points from 11.7% of
the vote in 2006 to 3.21% now. Much of this support seems to
have shifted to the PD, with small numbers also going for IdV
and LN. The Northern League almost doubled its share in the
Senate vote from 11% in 2006 to 20.72%. Most of this new
support came from Berlusconi's PdL. While PdL still came out
as the winning party overall with 34.4%, this is almost 4
percentage points less than its 2006 result of 38.3%.
Support among new voters and votes pulled from the Center
Union (UDC) held down PdL's loss. Largely thanks to voters
switching from the far left, the PD gained just under 4
percentage points for 28.23% this year compared to 24.6% for
its constituent parties in 2006.

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Veneto
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4. (C) Even more dramatically than in Lombardy, the Northern
League surged in Veneto, going from 11% of the vote in 2006
to an incredible 26.1% - virtually on par with the PdL
(28.3%) and the PD (27.2%). The trend of voters moving from
the former Forza Italia portion of PdL is even stronger in
the Veneto, with PdL falling almost 9 percentage points from
2006 levels. The Northern League victory was an
embarrassment for Regional President Galan, the leading PdL
figure in the Veneto who had been discussed as a possible
Minister. Now, Berlusconi is widely rumored to be
considering naming a Northern League figure as Minister of
Agriculture (an important sector for the Veneto),most likely
current Vice President of the Region Luca Zaia. PD and IdV

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also picked up about 1.5 percentage points each at the
expense of the far left and UDC primarily.


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Piedmont
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5. (SBU) Similar trends held for Piedmont, though more
modestly. Northern League again almost doubled its share,
but to only 12.32% versus 6.5% in 2006. PdL lost only a
fraction of a percentage point. PD and IdV made modest gains
of around one percentage point. The far left fell more than
9 percentage points from 12.5% in 2006 to 3.32%. Its vote
share was split between PD, IdV and LN. PdL again picked up
new voters and minimal UDC support while losing some voters
to LN.

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Liguria
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6. (SBU) Liguria was the scene of the biggest drop for the
far left, down almost 10 percentage points from 13.1% in 2006
to 3.5%. Most of this support went to the PD, which took the
largest vote share as an individual party (38.3% as opposed
to 35.1% in 2006). Still, the PdL-LN coalition won overall.
PdL scored its only vote share increase in the North from
35.8% in 2006 to 37.5% while the Northern League grew from
3.8% in 2006 to 6.6%. IdV also increased by over 2
percentage points (or more than 100%) from 2.7% to 4.8%. The
Liguria results showcase a broader trend - the movement of
votes away from parties outside the main coalitions. In
general, PdL, LN, PD and IdV all picked up votes at the
expense of small parties external to the coalitions such as
UDC, the far left and far right parties. Liguria also had
the closest election results in the North with 44.1% for
PdL-LN and 43.1% for PD-IdV.

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Friuli-Venezia-Giulia
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7. (C) Friuli-Venezia-Giulia went solidly for the PdL-LN
group (48.5%) over the PD-IdV coalition (36.1%). Still, as
almost everywhere else in the North, PdL support shrunk from
39.2% in 2006 to 35.5%. The Northern League nearly doubled
its votes yet again from 7.1% in 2006 to 13% in 2008. PD and
IdV made small gains, largely as a result of the far left's 7
percentage point drop (from 10% in 2006 to 3%). Regional
President Illy (allied with the PD) lost his reelection bid,
making it a sweep for PdL-LN. (Comment: When the Consul
General met Illy in early March, he seemed over-confident he
would win and was not actively campaigning. Post believes
this was the most likely cause for his loss. End comment.)

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Trentino-Alto Adige and Val D'Aosta
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8. (SBU) Trentino-Alto Adige and Val D'Aosta went strongly
for local regional parties that are pro-autonomy. Their
deputies and senators will work to protect local interests.

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Northern League Gains
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9. (C) Press reports initially explained the Northern
League's increase as coming from the far left. Post believes
most of the far left voters went to the PD and that Northern
League support came predominantly from the PdL in Northern
Italy. Leading pollster Paolo Natale made the same point and
cites exit polling data to support his contention that almost
23% of former Forza Italia voters in Northern Italy defected
from the PdL to vote for LN. PdL insiders, such as
presumptive Defense Minister Ignazio La Russa, also told the
Consul General that less than one percentage point of voters
nationally switched from the far left to the LN, far short of
accounting for LN's four point gain nationally. Thus, the
resulting win for PdL-LN gives Berlusconi a comfortable
majority in the Chamber and Senate, but also gives the
Northern League a prominent position in his government. How
the LN will seek to exploit its gains, and make them lasting,
could be a major factor in the overall stability of the new

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government and its ability to carry out coherent reforms.
WEYGANDT