Tasmania: Opposition Struggling to Find Foothold

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SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV AS
SUBJECT: Tasmania: Opposition Struggling to Find Foothold

Ref: Melbourne 144

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Summary
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1. (SBU) During a December 1-2 visit to Tasmania, political leaders
told Consul General that the Labor party has maintained popularity
despite recent political scandals due to a relatively weak
opposition. The Greens continue to play a balance of power role in
the state and are pushing to return Tasmania's parliament to its
original 35 members from the current 25. Tasmania's opposition
struggles with differentiating itself from the Labor government and
has thus far been unable to find a foothold. End Summary.

No "There" Over There
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2. (SBU) Despite the recent resignation of two state ministers over
stress and an attempted suicide, Tasmania's Labor party remains
optimistic. Tasmanian Premier David Bartlett estimates that his
party has a 50 percent chance of winning a majority in the next
state elections, a 40 percent chance of forming a government in
alliance with the Green party and only a 10 percent chance of the
Liberal party winning enough seats to form a majority government.
(Note: The next Tasmanian state election must be called before March
17, 2010. End note.) The last major poll, published in November,
showed the Labor party winning 40 percent of a hypothetical vote,
the Liberals at 35 percent and the Greens at 23 percent. Gary
Bailey, editor of Tasmania's daily, The Mercury, noted that the
opposition is "not making any headway" in Tasmania and believes that
the next election will be Labor's to lose.


3. (SBU) Will Hodgman, leader of the state opposition, presented a
grim outlook for the Tasmanian Liberal party. He said that it has
been a "long-hard grind" in the opposition and acknowledged that his
party has struggled to differentiate itself from the Labor party.
Hodgman has attempted to brand the Liberals as the party of change,
but stated that waging an ideological battle at the state level is
difficult when most voters are simply concerned about the delivery
of state services. The Liberals, Hodgman said, have not taken
advantage of the Labor party's recent troubles because he did not
want to see his party branded as being "too negative." He stated
that he does not see a long-term future in his present role as
leader of the opposition and admitted that he is a "small l"
liberal, identifying more with the U.S. Democratic party than the
Republican party.

The Kingmakers
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4. (SBU) The Hare-Clark proportional electoral system (explained
below) in Tasmania has permitted the emergence of a significant
third party, the Greens. Nick McKim, the Green party leader, stated
that the Greens have played an important role in Tasmania by forming
coalitions with either the Liberal or the Labor parties. He stated
that he would work with either party depending on what "was better
for Tasmania." McKim did say, however, that he had a previous
affinity for the Labor party and believes that the Liberal party has
no "up and coming" leaders. Turning to the future, McKim stated
that he was focused on gaining another seat in the next state
election. While a Premiership may not be in the Green's immediate
future, obtaining a fifth lower house seat would enable the party
play a more significant role in balance of power parliaments.


5. (U) The Green party controls four of the state's 25 lower house
seats, with Labor presently holding 14 seats and the Liberals
holding only seven. The Hare Clark system allows candidates (all
from multi-member constituencies) to be elected if they receive a
minimum quota of 16.7 percent of eligible votes. Once a candidate
crosses the 16.7 percent quota, the votes are transferred to the
next candidate in line. This system was designed to minimize
"wasted" votes and to ensure that voters express their preference
for individual candidates rather than party lists.

Expand the Parliament?
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6. (SBU) Nick McKim, Gary Bailey and Supreme Court Justice Pierre
Slicer all agreed that the lower house of the Tasmanian parliament
should be returned to its original 35 members. The lower house was
reduced by an act of Tasmania's parliament in 1998 to its current
form of 25 members. (Comment: The Labor/Greens and Liberal/Greens
coalition governments of the late 1980s and early 1990s are widely
regarded as having been disasters. Limiting the influence of the
greens was one of the reasons the lower house was reduced from 35 to
25 seats. End comment.) In addition to curtailing the influence of
third parties, observers say that the lower house is "not working
properly" because the talent pool is too shallow to allow younger
members to develop as leaders. As Justice Slicer pointed out, a
parliament of 25 members stymies the "training ground of the back

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bench." Nick McKim believes that an act of state parliament would
be necessary to return the lower house to 35 members.

Comment
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7. (SBU) The opposition in Tasmania is pessimistic and appears to
have accepted the improbability of winning a majority in the next
state election. Will Hodgman is a confessed social liberal who has
struggled to differentiate his party from the Labor government.
While he may step down as leader prior to the next state elections,
a change of the guard may not be enough to clinch a Liberal
victory.

THURSTON