LESOTHO: SADC NEGOTIATIONS AT A STANDSTILL, VIOLENCE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MASERU 000303

SIPDIS

FOR AF/S
FOR RITA BYRNES, INR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/9/2018
TAGS: PGOV LT BC PREL ASEC
SUBJECT: LESOTHO: SADC NEGOTIATIONS AT A STANDSTILL, VIOLENCE
POSSIBLE

REF: (A) 07MASERU73 (B) 07MASERU191 (C) 07MASERU350 (D) 07MASERU379

CLASSIFIED BY: Sara Devlin, Public Diplomacy, Economic, and
Political Officer, PDEP, State Department.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)
1.(SBU) Summary: The return of the SADC negotiating team
highlighted the fact that no progress has yet been made toward
agreement in the political deadlock between the ruling Lesotho
Congress for Democracy party (LDC) and the opposition parties.
Though negotiators felt they had made progress, political
observers fear potential violence if no further steps are taken
to appease the opposition. End Summary.

SADC Negotiators return
--------------

2.(SBU) On Saturday morning, 27 September, PDEP attended a
meeting with members of the Southern African Development
Community (SADC) Eminent Person Mission on the Post-Electoral
Political Dialogue in the Kingdom of Lesotho, headed by former
Botswana President Sir Ketumile Masire. Also in attendance at
the meeting were representatives from the European Community
(EC) and the Irish Embassy.

3.(SBU) During the meeting Masire spoke about the status of
negotiations between the ruling LCD party and the opposition
parties.

"Terms of reference", yes, but where's the agreement?
-------------- --------------

4.(SBU) Thus far, the two parties have agreed to the "terms of
reference" for the electoral experts. Those terms of reference
are: "1. To establish and advise on a) Nature and Objectives of
the Mixed Member Proportional Electoral System of Lesotho, b)
Difference between Mixed Member Proportional and Mixed Member
parallel electoral model, c) The provisions, the spirit and the
intent of the model; 2. a) To establish the Merits and demerits
of the Mixed Member Proportion Model as applied in the 17
February 2007 elections, b) To establish and advice as to
whether the allocation of seats in the 17 February 2007
elections complied with the Mixed Member Proportional Model."

5.(SBU) Masire's visit to Maseru this time was a surprise. He
had been in Maseru two weeks prior. He came back for two
reasons. The first is that he received a letter from Deputy
Prime Minister Archibald Lehohla stating that the ruling party
and the opposition parties had "agreed to disagree" on the way
forward from this point. This prompted his return because of he
had felt that there was a "ray of hope" because the two parties
had been able to find some areas of agreement. He wants them to
meet, discuss, use these terms of reference to lead to next
steps.

Childish reactions to abuse of the "spirit of the law"
-------------- --------------

6.(C) Despite this "ray of hope", Masire is not overly
optimistic. One of the members of the negotiating team stated
that the two parties "act like children". Neither the leading
party nor the opposition parties want to cede any ground. The
ruling party believes that the judicial system's decision, in
which they stated that they do not have jurisdiction to make a
decision in this case, is tantamount to saying that the ruling
party is right. The opposition parties still want to go back and
force reallocation of the disputed seats from the February 2007
elections.

7.(SBU) At the breakfast, Masire mentioned Danish professor
Elklit's article from the "Journal of African Elections". The
professor was an observer of the elections and has written an
article entitled: "the 2007 General Election in Lesotho: Abuse
of the MMP System?" He states that the election and its results
were not done illegally, but, as Masire put it, "in a cunning
way". In other words, the spirit of the law concerning MMP was
broken, but not the law itself.

Tensions between and within the parties
-------------- ---

8.(C) Masire said that he has actually told Tom Thabane, All
Basotho Congress (ABC) leader and the unofficial leader of the
opposition, that part of the blame for this situation lies with
him, because when he left the ruling party, it destabilized the
government, and forced them to call for snap elections. The
elections, which were scheduled to be held in May 2007, were
held three months earlier, in February, and did not leave
opposition parties enough time to organize their campaigns.

9.(SBU) Right now, opposition parties are calling for new
elections. Some party members would like to see elections as
soon as six months from now, though eighteen months is the most
accepted time frame mentioned. However, the ruling party is
completely against the idea, and has stated that elections will

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be held in 2012 as planned.

10.(SBU) LCD, the governing party, held a policy conference from
September 26-29, 2008. Embassy sources indicate that tension is
rising within the ruling party itself. The two factions, one
said to be aligned to Minister of Natural Resources Monyane
Moleleki and the other to Prime Minister Pakalitha Mosisili, are
overtly attacking each other in the media.

Potential for violence?
--------------

11.(C) The issue of most concern is that of potential violence.
Masire himself said at the breakfast that: "Tension could rise
to a point where there could be downright unrest in the country.
This is the fear of the SADC organ." He also said that in such a
case, the government of Lesotho "does not know how long it could
count on the army and the soldiers to keep the peace. When it
happens, it is an explosion." This fear of violence was echoed
by members of the negotiating team. The director of the
Transformation Resource Center also mentioned potential violence
during conversations with the PDEP last week.

12.(SBU) Lesotho has a sordid history of an appearance of calm
on the surface, and then violent reactions to seemingly small
incidents. In the late 1990s, a major riot broke out based on
tensions between the Basotho people and Chinese merchants. The
trigger incident was an accusation by a Chinese store owner
against a Mosotho lady of shoplifting. Though it was actually a
child riding on the lady's back who grabbed an item off the
shelf, the accusation resulted in the beating of the mother and
eventually to the burning of commercial buildings and violence
against individuals.

Comment
--------------

13.(SBU) Comment: It appears that, for now, things will remain
quiet in Maseru on the political front. However, post will
remain vigilant and continue to meet with sources from within
both the government and the opposition and will inform
Washington should any new information surface. End Comment.
ANDERSON