SPAIN'S OPPOSITION PARTIDO POPULAR: RAJOY FIRMLY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MADRID 000691

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/WE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL SP
SUBJECT: SPAIN'S OPPOSITION PARTIDO POPULAR: RAJOY FIRMLY
IN CONTROL FOR NOW, BUT MUST SHOW RESULTS

REF: MADRID 537

MADRID 00000691 001.2 OF 002



1. (U) Mariano Rajoy, the embattled head of Spain's main
opposition Partido Popular (PP),was re-elected as party
leader on June 21 during the three-day PP congress held in
Valencia. As reported in REFTEL, Rajoy's leadership had been
challenged on several fronts since his party lost a second
straight national election to President Zapatero's Spanish
Socialist Workers Party (PSOE) and it was unclear if he would
be able to hold on to power. Over the past few weeks,
would-be challengers found insufficient support for their
candidacy to unseat Rajoy and faded back into the woodwork,
leaving Rajoy to run unopposed. He further distanced himself
from the shadow of former President Jose Maria Aznar by
announcing a younger, more moderate party secretariat on June
19 that won plaudits from even left-leaning national
newspapers, and now appears to be basking in the glory of a
successfully-completed party congress. However, many in
Spain believe Rajoy has overcome only the first in a long
series of leadership battles in advance of the next round of
national elections in 2012, and he will need to show positive
results in off-year regional and European elections if he
hopes to have a third consecutive chance to grab the brass
ring of the Spanish presidency.


2. (U) Approximately 3,025 PP delegates gathered from 20-22
June in the seaside city of Valencia, Spain, to approve the
party's political platform for the next four years, under the
motto "We Grow Together." Over 84% of these delegates voted
for Rajoy to continue as party leader. This vote tally was
the lowest of any PP leader since the party was reformed in
1989, but should serve to silence critics for now. Rajoy was
coming off a tough 100-day period following the March 9
election loss and had to deal with tumult and dissension in
his party's ranks and open criticism from staunch PP members
such as Madrid Regional President Esperanza Aguirre, former
Interior Minister Jaime Mayor Oreja, Congressional foreign
policy spokesman Gustavo Aristegui, party communications
secretary Gabriel Elorriaga, and PP campaign strategist Juan
Costa. In addition, the popular leader of the PP's political
allies in the Basque Country, Maria San Gil, stated publicly
in May that she had lost confidence in the leadership of
Rajoy and his team. Nevertheless, opposition to Rajoy proved
to be a mile wide and an inch deep and faded away once it
became clear that no single alternative candidate had enough
support to overthrow the sitting leader.

//COMMENT//


3. (SBU) Rajoy appears to have put to rest for the time being
any doubts about his PP leadership, and his new team is
receiving generally positive reviews from across the
political spectrum. Pundits are highlighting not only the
collective experience and competence of the group gained from
positions at the local, regional, and national levels, but
also their backgrounds (including a single working mother)
designed to present a more moderate face and hopefully appeal
to a wider swath of Spanish voters. We believe Rajoy is
definitely strengthened coming out of the party conference
and has a mandate to reform the party in his own image--but
his new team will be expected to achieve results quickly if
he hopes to lead the party's national ticket in 2012. As we
have reportedly previously, we believe Rajoy owes his
longevity as much as anything to the lack of a credible
successor within his own party, but many are waiting in the
wings should he stumble again. Key off-year elections are
coming up in the Basque Country (scheduled for early 2009),
Galicia (June 2009),and the European Parliament (June 2009),
and PP supporters will demand to see positive results as
reward for having remained patient while Rajoy finds his way.


//RAJOY'S NEW TEAM - BIO NOTES//


4. (U) Maria Dolores de Cospedal Garcia (PP Secretary
General, replaces Angel Acebes): The current party president
in the state of Castilla La Mancha (elected in 2006),
Cospedal is the first female to hold the position of PP
Secretary General. She was born in Madrid in 1965 and holds
a law degree from the private university of San Pablo-CEU.
Cospedal began her political career in 1996 when she was
appointed Executive Advisor to the Minister of Labor and
served until 1998 when she left to serve as the Labor Attache
at the Spanish Embassy in Washington. From 1999 until 2004,
she held different jobs within the Ministry of Labor and
Social Affairs, and later the Ministry of Interior. She has
worked with Esperanza Aguirre in the Madrid Regional
government and the two reportedly maintain good relations.

MADRID 00000691 002.2 OF 002


Under Cospedal's leadership, the Partido Popular in
Castilla-La Mancha has grown stronger and is narrowing the
electoral gap with the Socialists. Cospedal is a single
mother with one son, and reportedly likes classical music,
ballet, painting, and reading.


5. (U) Esteban Gonzalez Pons (PP vice secretary for
communication, replaces Gabriel Elorriaga): Born in Valencia
in 1964, Gonzalez Pons is the PP leader in Valencia whose
party during the March 9 election did much better in that
region than the Socialist list led by current Vice President
Maria Teresa Fernandez de la Vega. He began his political
career in the early 1990s and in 1993 became the youngest
Spanish senator ever elected (29 years old). From 2003-2004
he served in the Valencia Regional government as the Minister
of Culture, Education, and Sports. He is considered a rising
star in the party and is close to current Valencia Regional
President Francisco Camps. He is married to Piluca Bertolin
and the couple are expecting a baby girl in July 2008. He
and his wife have a total of five children from previous
marriages.


6. (U) Ana Mato (PP vice secretary for organization and the
electorate, replaces Sebastian Gonzalez): Born in Madrid in
1959 with a degree in Sociology and Political Sciences, Mato
has been involved with the PP and its predecessor party since
1984 and remains close to former President Aznar. From 1991
until 1993, she was a member of the regional congress of
Castilla y Leon, and served in the national congress from
1993-2004. She served in the European Parliament beginning
in 2004, until Rajoy brought her back to Spain and put her
high on his Madrid electoral list during the March 9 national
elections. Mato is married and has three children.


7. (U) Javier Arenas (PP vice secretary for territory, new
position): The current president of the PP in Andalucia was
born in Seville in 1957 and has a law background and an MBA.
Arenas has been affiliated with Spain's center right parties
since democracy was restored in 1979, and entered national
politics in 1989 when he was elected on a PP list from
Sevilla. After the 1993 general elections, Aznar sent him
back to Andalucia to rebuild the party there and he
immediately produced results, if not an outright win, in the
famed PSOE stronghold. During the first Aznar government in
1996, he served as Minister of Labor and Social Affairs, and
later as Minister of Public Administration in 2002. He also
held high-profile posts as PP Secretary General and in 2003
as Second Vice President of the Spanish government. Since
2004, he has again been the head of the PP in Andalucia and
continues to narrow the electoral distance with the PSOE. He
is married to Macarena Olivencia and has three children.
AGUIRRE