LUXEMBOURG SHARES CONCERN OVER BOSNIA, OPPOSED TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L LUXEMBOURG 000280

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/SCE MIKE FOOKS AND ANNA STINCHCOMB
DEPT FOR EUR/WE KATE SHARP

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/03/2018
TAGS: PGOV BK EU LU
SUBJECT: LUXEMBOURG SHARES CONCERN OVER BOSNIA, OPPOSED TO
PUNITIVE MEASURES

REF: STATE 113894

Classified By: Acting Deputy Chief of Mission, Tom Boughter, for reason
s 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY MFA Western Balkans desk officer Jacques
Thill responded to reftel demarche on 4 November. Thill
indicated that Luxembourg shares the USG concern over the
deteriorating situation in Bosnia. Luxembourg agrees that
any transition in Bosnia should be predicated on adhering to
the 5 2 agenda. While concerned that Republika Srpska (RS)
Prime Minister Dodik is undermining Dayton, Luxembourg is not
in favor of punitive measures at this time. Thill said that
his government does not believe the issue of constitutional
reform should be linked to the OHR closure or 5 2 agenda.
Finally, Thill added that while there are certainly some
divergent views within the European Union (EU),he believes
Luxembourg falls into line with the majority of EU member
states, and that a strong and clear statement will likely
emerge from the 10 November GAERC. END SUMMARY


2. (C) In response to reftel demarche on 4 November, Thill
commented that the 10 November GAERC is one of two GAERC
sessions each year that will also gather the EU's Defense
Ministers. While the Western Balkans, in general, is on the
agenda, Thill expects Bosnia will dominate the conversation.
Thill said that Luxembourg absolutely agrees that Bosnia is
headed in the wrong direction and shares the feeling that
more should be done. With respect to transition within
Bosnia, Thill said Luxembourg agrees that the 5 2 agenda must
be respected before transition. Respecting the 5 2 agenda is
essential, Thill added, because it would be symbolic of both
Bosnian credibility and unity, and would be a strong show of
support of the Peace Implementation Council (PIC).


3. (C) Thill said Luxembourg shares USG concerns over Prime
Minister Dodik's actions and rhetoric. Dodik, Thill added,
is clearly one of the biggest threats to Dayton. Measures
against the RS and RS leaders, however, is not the right
approach, according to Thill. Dodik is not going anywhere
and has a seat at the table, so it is important that the RS
remain engaged. Rather than punitive measures, Thill
proposed that the European Union will use Dodik's own words
to push him in the right direction. Dodik has previously
embraced an integrationist policy for Bosnia and has spoken
of a future in the European Union. Thill suggested that the
EU would hammer Dodik on these statements in order to force
the issue. Measures against Dodik could also be
counterproductive, Thill added. Any such measures could fuel
Dodik's populist appeal within the Republika Srpska. They
may also alienate other Serbs, who we (Europe?) need onboard
on other issues, such as Kosovo.


4. (C) Luxembourg wishes to see the issue of constitutional
reform in Bosnia decoupled from closure of the Office of the
High Representative (OHR). Thill said Luxembourg would
support any plan for constitutional reform, even if it came
prior to OHR closure or completion of the 5 2 agenda. Thill
added that any such support from Luxembourg, however, would
only come if all three ethnic divisions within Bosnia sit
down together and reach common ground. Thill indicated that
nobody within the EU actually believes the three divisions
are ready to discuss common goals, much less actually have
common goals.


5. (C) Thill added that, as with any issue, there are
always some divergent views within the EU. When poloff asked
Thill what were bones of contention within the EU, Thill
demurred and emphasized that there is general consensus
within the EU that Bosnia is not headed in the right
direction. If there were any differences among EU members,
however, Thill suggested they may hinge on the speed of
transition within Bosnia. There were certain member states
who believe if Bosnia feels she is prepared to proceed with
transition even without satisfying the 5 2 agenda, then she
should do so. Thill assured Poloff that Luxembourg falls in
the camp calling for completion of the 5 2 agenda prior to
transition and indicated his belief that Luxembourg is a
member of the EU majority. "First things first," Thill said,
referring to the 5 2 agenda. "We have set these conditions
and objectives for transition; they should be met."

WAGNER