MICHAEL SATA: WHO IS THE KING COBRA AND WILL HE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 LUSAKA 000986

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/2/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL CH ZA
SUBJECT: MICHAEL SATA: WHO IS THE KING COBRA AND WILL HE
BE CROWNED?

REF: A. LUSAKA 973

B. 2001 LUSAKA 3246

C. 1994 LUSAKA 751

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Michael Koplovsky for reasons 1.4(b) a
nd (d)


1. (SBU) Summary. Although still a strong contender in the
October 30 by-election, presidential candidate Michael Sata
appears to have lost some of his momentum due to internal
party strife. The Patriotic Front leader excommunicated half
of his party's parliamentarians in late 2007 over
disagreements regarding the National Constitutional
Conference (NCC),and one of them now appears bent on foiling
Sata's presidential ambitions. Despite this setback, Sata is
determined to win the presidency and has begun targeting
rural areas in order to expand his electoral base beyond
discontented urban youth. Presumably for the same reason,
Sata has moderated his message by extolling foreign
investors--explicitly including the Chinese whom he
excoriated in the 2006 elections--for their contribution to
Zambian economic development. The 71-year old opposition
leader's heart attack earlier this year has also raised
questions about his physical wellbeing and his suitability
for office. With marginal party support, questionable
physical fitness, and limited financing, Sata has many
challenges to overcome within the next four weeks. End
Summary.

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Who Is the King Cobra?
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2. (SBU) Michael Chilufya Sata, also known (both
affectionately and derogatorily) as "King Cobra," was born in
1937 in Mpika, a city in Northern Province. A former trade
unionist, he first distinguished himself within Kenneth
Kaunda's United National Independence Party (UNIP) as a ward
chairman, member of parliament, and governor of Lusaka.
Correctly detecting the winds of change, Sata joined the
Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD) in 1990. Following
MMD's victory in the 1991 election, Sata became Minister for
Local Government (1991),Minister of Labor (1993),and
Minister of Health (1994) under Frederick Chiluba.
Supporters and detractors alike refer to Sata's tenure at the
Health Ministry as an example of his pragmatic and effective
leadership style.


3. (C) Derisive and insubordinate to then-Vice President Levy
Mwanawasa, Sata played a major role in Mwanawasa's departure
from government in 1994. Chiluba appointed Sata to be
Minister Without Portfolio in 1996 to allow him to magnify
his position as MMD Executive Secretary, a position he took
up in late 1995. Sata maintained a dominant role in MMD
politics over the next six years, earning a reputation for
his blustering, self-confident, and forceful style. What he
lacks in strategic thinking, he makes up for in political
cunning and force of character. Although seen as a "straight
talker," the PF leader's discourse is not burdened by an
unwavering commitment to accuracy or truth.


4. (SBU) Sata was one of the principal forces behind
Chiluba's campaign to amend the constitution in order to run
for a third term. With well-known presidential ambitions,
Sata most likely anticipated a reward for his loyalty to the
erstwhile president. In the wake of Mwanawasa's nomination
by the MMD's National Executive Committee in 2001, the
crestfallen Sata was rumored to be planning the formation of
a new party, the Salvation Party, something he vehemently
denied in the press. Just two months before the general
election, Sata established the Patriotic Front (PF) party,
which played an immaterial role in the 2001 general
elections--Sata collected less than four percent of the vote,
and his party won only one seat in parliament.


5. (SBU) Despite his record as one of Zambia's
longest-serving Ministers, by the 2006 presidential election
Sata succeeded in recasting himself as the
"anti-establishment" candidate and champion of the poor,
blaming the MMD party for the country's woes. His populist
message resonated well with an electorate that had not
benefited from Zambian economic liberalization and
macroeconomic growth. Much of his popularity also resided
with young voters, who saw him as a political outsider,
capable of reversing the consequences of MMD's poor
leadership and aware of the plight of most Zambians. Sata's
criticism of foreign investors, particularly the Chinese, won
him popular appeal and international recognition. In one of
his only unique platforms, he called for the expulsion of
Chinese migrant workers and proposed diplomatic ties with
Taiwan. On election day 2006, he captured 29 percent of the
vote, dominating in Lusaka, Copperbelt, and Luapula

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provinces, and won 43 parliamentary seats, making PF the
strongest opposition party in parliament.

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Marginal Party Support
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6. (SBU) Sata's campaign abilities far exceed his ability to
manage an opposition party. Infighting among the Patriotic
Front began in late 2007 when Sata ordered party
parliamentarians to boycott the National Consitutional
Conference (NCC),insisting that it was biased in favor of
MMD. Twenty-six members of parliament (MPs) defied the order
and insisted on attending. In December, Sata threatened to
expel the dissidents, but a court injunction stopped him from
doing so. The tension continued into 2008, flaring up in
July when PF MP Violet Sampa-Bredt attacked Sata and the rest
of the party leadership as illegitimate and called for a
party convention to elect new leaders. Sata responded to her
and others' criticisms by describing the "rebel MPs" as
"totally irrelevant to PF."


7. (SBU) At a meeting in mid-August with Charge--to which
Sata invited several unannounced members of the press--Sata
insisted that the dissenting MPs could rejoin the party if
they renounced their participation in the NCC. Grandstanding
before television and print reporters, Sata reiterated his
stance that the NCC is an exercise in corruption, a scheme by
wayward politicians to receive lavish daily compensation
while the rest of the nation suffers. He denied that the NCC
had any democratic value, asserting that "95 percent of the
delegates are from the MMD" and that proceedings are biased
in the ruling party's favor.


8. (C) Following President Mwanawasa's death--and despite
strong impetus to unify the party--Sata cancelled his party
convention in order "to focus on the election." PF MP
Saviour Chishimba (himself an atypical and slightly
off-center Zambian politician) lashed out publicly against
Sata and his "autocratic" rule and applied for a court
injunction to prohibit Sata from filing his presidential
nomination. A high court judge dismissed the case on the
grounds that the Electoral Commission does not have the legal
mandate to restrain Sata from filing his nomination and the
PF--as an unincorporated association--does not have the legal
capacity to be sued. The Solicitor General later conceded to
emboff that the case had merits but was dismissed on a
technicality. He admitted that a ruling in favor of
Chishimba would have resulted in social unrest. Chishimba's
constituency office was later razed, allegedly by fervent PF
supporters. His October 2 press conference--to address among
other things the threats against him--was cut short when
several PF heavies carried him from the hotel conference room
and proceeded to beat him.

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Questionable Physical Health
--------------


9. (U) During the campaign period, Sata will have to satisfy
voters that he has the health and stamina to hold the
nation's highest office. The 71-year old veteran politician
suffered a heart attack in April and was rushed (at
government expense) to South Africa for treatment. When
asked in August whether his heart problem would affect his
presidential bid, Sata replied that he was ready for
nationwide campaigning. He attributed his illness to his
one-time smoking habit, and with his usual over-confidence
and liberal representation of the truth, he added "there is
no heart attack--which is cured in 20 minutes. I am walking
and fit." He challenged his opponents to go for medical
testing for HIV/Aids, kaposi sarcoma (a herpes induced
tumor),and cardiovascular health.


10. (SBU) Although Sata's health might not be an issue for
his core constituency, it might dissuade would-be voters and
prevent him from amassing popularity among an electorate
weary of the possibility of another by-election before 2011.
Remarkably, however, his age has not been the subject of much
public discussion, ostensibly due to the almost identical age
of his septuagenarian rival, MMD candidate Rupiah Banda.
Consequently, there have been few calls for the presidential
mantle to fall on younger shoulders--namely, United Party for
National Development leader Hakainde Hichilema--even in the
aftermath of President Mwanawasa's death.

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Limited Financing
--------------


11. (C) Sata's lack of campaign financiers may be a decisive
factor in the present campaign, particularly in light of the

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MMD government's profuse use of state resources and programs
to its advantage in boosting Banda's campaign. Banda's
populist discretionary spending in the aftermath of the late
president's hospitalization may be on par with Sata's
populist rhetoric (Ref A). In contrast, Sata's 2006 campaign
appeared flush with money, presumably from Chiluba, and
others indicted on corruption charges, as well as the
Taiwanese. According to a senior PF parliamentarian, Sata
fell out with Chiluba in 2007 over the NCC process.
Subsequently, the former president has not rallied for Sata
(as he did in 2006),and Sata has not repeated his 2006
pledge to disband the Task Force on Corruption that is
prosecuting the former president. At a September 27 rally in
Northern Province, Sata cautioned Chiluba (and former
President Kenneth Kaunda) to stay out of politics and to
refrain from issuing statements that align them with
presidential campaigns.


12. (C) A non-PF politician told Emboff that the Taiwanese
Government, which allegedly provided PF with campaign
financing in 2006, had been embarrassed by Sata's erratic and
outspoken behavior and was unlikely to offer additional
support. Several PF representatives, including the Secretary
General, have asked Emboffs for USG campaign donations on the
grounds that the party does not have adequate resources for
campaigning, let alone the deployment of polling agents to
monitor the elections. They admitted to some sources of
outside funding, but refused to identify donors. They
related, however, that the Chinese Embassy had contacted
senior PF member Guy Scott, in the early stages of the 2006
vote count (when PF was leading) to request a meeting and
offer financial support. The PF reps did not say whether
this offer still applied in 2008. According to a judge with
strong ties to the PF party, Zimbabwean President Robert
Mugabe has lent some funds to Sata's campaign.


13. (SBU) Sata's praise of Indian businessman Rajan Mahtani,
the owner of Finance Bank who previously supported Finance
Minister Ng'andu Magande's bid for the MMD nomination,
suggests that PF may now be receiving funding from Mahtani
and other prominent members of the business community.
Whether cash-strapped or not, PF appears to be operating on a
smaller budget than in 2006 and will be hard pressed to
conduct an effective campaign in rural regions, given the
cost and difficulties of travel within Zambia. Additionally,
the party will be less able to cultivate its public appeal
with the usual electoral offerings, such as food, beer, and
clothing.

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The Portable Populist
--------------


14. (SBU) Perhaps as part of his effort to overcome these
obstacles and to broaden his popularity with what some have
dubbed "the mini-bus constituency," Sata has moderated his
message, replacing intolerant anti-investor vitriol with open
affection. The October 2 cover the Zambian daily independent
newspaper The Post showed Sata warmly embracing Chinese
laborers. On September 30, PF placed a full-page add in The
Post in which he paid tribute to Indian investors, who played
an important role in Zambia's economic development and who
jointly suffered from British apartheid-like discriminatory
policies. The pop-eyed populist now speaks against
xenophobism, despite his 2006 platform that sparked fears of
backlash against foreign workers and investors.


15. (SBU) PF's new manifesto, which party leaders described
to emboff as "the condensed version," is a different version
altogether from earlier PF documents. In it, Sata explains
that the PF "values local and foreign investors equally."
The manifesto, entitled "The Way Forward for Zambia,"
promises not only to protect investment, but to provide
incentives "across the board." It also explains that "a PF
led government would encourage people with skills, which are
in short supply in Zambia, to live and work in our country."
The document also calls for a strengthened anti-corruption
campaign.


16. (C) A mining company executive confided to emboff that
his company is maintaining close ties to PF and that his
staff had written Sata's recent public statements on
investment. He said that although it was difficult to
ascertain whether Sata's volte-face on foreign investment is
sincere, it demonstrates pragmatism and political agility. A
senior PF parliamentarian told emboff that Sata has always
understood the importance of foreign investment and has never
intended--not even in 2006--to expel or marginalize foreign
business interests.


17. (SBU) Although Sata continues to espouse the causes of
the poor, much of his current campaign has been formed around

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the notion that he is former president Mwanawasa's natural
successor. Time and again, Sata refers to his reconciliation
with the Mwanawasa earlier in 2008 (which followed quickly on
the heels of Sata's government-sponsored medevac to South
Africa in April),and their private discussions regarding
Zambia's future. In August, after Mwanawasa's death, Sata
declared that "only him and me know what we talked about and
none of you is going to know." One of the few documents on
Sata's website, labeled "Levy's last speech," contains
remarks delivered by the late president in June containing
reference to his "infamous reconciliation" with Sata.


18. (SBU) During the period of national mourning, Sata
followed Mwanawasa's body from province to province
ostensibly to show his deep remorse, but in reality to
inhibit MMD's attempt to capture of a windfall "sympathy
vote." This gesture seemed out of place for many who
remember the cunning politician's frequent ridicule of
Mwanawasa for his speech impediment caused by a car accident
in the early 1990s (in a 2006 presidential rally Sata ripped
apart a cabbage, which had become Sata's prop for
characterizing Mwanawasa's mental state). In the space of
several short months, Sata has endeavored to recast himself
to the Zambian electorate as the confidant of the late
President and the candidate most capable of continuing the
former President's legacy.

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Comment
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19. (SBU) In a particularly telling move, Sata abandoned his
former website (www.pf.com.zm) and created a new domain name
(www.michaelsata.co.zm),which most appropriately conveys the
true nature of his personality-driven party. Despite Sata's
demagoguery, he is surrounded by many thoughtful politicians
who seem to believe in his cause and his political prospects
and are willing to overlook his eccentricities, shortcomings,
and frequent populist poppycock. In the event of a PF
victory, Sata will be authorized to appoint eight additional
MPs, several of whom are likely to assume cabinet positions.
These appointees, together with some other PF MPs, are apt to
continue to extend reasonable counsel and exert a moderating
influence. Although Banda's victory is not a forgone
conclusion, Sata and his cadre of supporters will have to
work hard to gain back some of PF's momentum and to be seen
as a credible party by a wider body of voters.

KOPLOVSKY