ZAMBIA: CROP FORECASTS FOR 2007/2008 SHOW SUFFICIENT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LUSAKA 000549

DEPARTMENT FOR EEB/TPP/ABT/ATP (JANET SPECK)
ROME FOR USFAO

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAGR ECON EAID ZA
SUBJECT: ZAMBIA: CROP FORECASTS FOR 2007/2008 SHOW SUFFICIENT
SUPPLY

REF: LUSAKA 479

LUSAKA 00000549 001.4 OF 002



1. (U) Summary. The Ministry of Agriculture has released its crop
forecasts for the 2007/2008 agricultural season, as well as Zambia's
food balance for the marketing season covering the period from May
1, 2008 to April 30, 2009. The figures show that on a national
level estimated production, combined with existing food reserves,
will be adequate to meet or even exceed Zambian demand. On a local
level, however, the GRZ predicts food insecurity in communities that
experienced adverse weather conditions, such as flooding, and as the
result of poor internal transport and distribution. End Summary.

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Not a Bumper Harvest, But Adequate
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2. (U) According to the Ministry of Agriculture's recently released
crop forecast, Zambia's agricultural output for the 2007/2008
harvest will meet national demand. When Zambia's major staple food
crops (maize, rice, wheat, sorghum, millet, potatoes, and cassava)
are measured in maize equivalent, using kilocalories, the combined
figure shows a modest staple food surplus of 564,547 metric tons.
GRZ production estimates are listed below. Commodity demand figures
include amounts to be purchased by the Food Reserve Agency (FRA).
Commodity supplies consist of production estimates combined with
existing FRA stock.

GRZ Estimates
(in thousands of metric tons)

Staple Crops 2007/2008 2006/2007
-------------- -------------- --------------
Maize Production 1,212 1,366
Maize Supply 1,602 1,799
Maize Requirements 1,459 1,549
Maize Surplus 143 250

Cassava Production 1,161 1,186
Cassava Supply 1,163
Cassava Requirements 735
Cassava Surplus 428 463

Rice Production 24 18
Rice Supply 27
Rice Demand 37
Rice Deficit 10

Wheat Production 180 185
Wheat Supply 206
Wheat Demand 195
Wheat Surplus 11


Cash Crops 2007/2008 2006/2007
-------------- -------------- --------------
Sorghum 10 13
Soy Beans 57 55
Sunflower 13 9
Groundnuts 71 55
Sweet Potatoes 107 76
Irish Potatoes 10 23
Cotton 100 87
Burley Tobacco 8 5
Virginia Tobacco 13 21


3. (U) The GRZ announced that Zambia will record a cassava surplus
for the tenth year in a row. Cassava output has generally not been
affected by stressful years when other staple foods are in deficit.
The figures reflect production declines in most staple products,
including maize, cassava, wheat, and sorghum. Anticipated increased
output in groundnuts, sweet potatoes, and sunflower reflects some
crop diversification.

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Poor Productivity/Weather Hinder Growth
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4. (U) Regionally, Luapula, Eastern, Northern, and Copperbelt
provinces increased their maize production levels by an estimated
24, 19, 24, and 15 percent respectively. The remaining five
provinces, Southern, Lusaka, Central, Northwestern, and Western,
experienced sharp declines (by 52, 51, 19, 14, and 13 percent
respectively). The GRZ attributes lower maize productivity to water
logging and flooding, inadequate access to agricultural inputs and

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extension services, and below normal rainfall in some parts of the
country. Increased planting helped offset lower yields:

Maize Productivity
(in metric tons/hectare, mt/ha)

2007/2008 2006/2007
-------------- --------------
Area Planted 928,224 ha 872,812 ha
Area Harvested 551,359 ha 586,503 ha
Yield Rate 1.31 mt/ha 1.57 mt/ha


5. (U) Yield rates of small and medium size farms (1.13 mt/ha) lag
far behind those of large scale farms (4.51 mt/ha),which have
access to irrigation and consequently are less affected by inclement
weather conditions. Large scale farmers, utilizing higher
quantities of fertilizer per hectare and more efficient crop
management, managed to harvest 93 percent of their planted areas,
compared to 58 percent for small and medium scale farmers.
Consequently, large scale farmers who accounted for 18 percent of
annual maize production in the 2007/2008 harvest, are expected to
contribute to 33 percent of total maize sales during the 2008/2009
marketing season.

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Comment
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6. (SBU) Post considers the GRZ production forecasts to be fairly
reliable. Its supply estimates, however, may be overly optimistic.
According to one assessment, approximately a third of FRA stock has
spoiled, due to poor storage conditions and technology. If so,
total supply may fall below levels of national demand, and Zambia
may have to import the deficit or may seek increased humanitarian
assistance, especially in the current climate.


7. (U) Although the national figures suggest overall food
self-sufficiency, Zambia's incapacity to distribute aid to regions
of the country affected by poor weather conditions means that some
rural communities will once more face serious food shortages.
Subsistence farmers--even in provinces that recorded increased
production--continue to suffer from poverty and hunger. These
farmers generally do not have access to fertilizer, high-yield
seeds, irrigation equipment, and agricultural services and lack
storage technology, efficient farming techniques, and market
access.


8. (SBU) The GRZ's existing agricultural budget consists primarily
of providing (usually late) limited quantities of subsidized
fertilizer and purchasing large stocks of maize for the FRA at
non-market prices. Its export controls distort market prices and
discourage agricultural investment. Until the GRZ develops and
implements an agricultural policy that goes beyond guaranteed
prices, trade barriers, and fertilizer support, which generally is
diverted to commercial farmers who need government help least,
Zambia will be unlikely to feed its people. Moreover, as long as
export controls exist, commercial farmers will be unable to reap the
benefits of higher global food prices.

MARTINEZ