Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08LUSAKA463
2008-04-27 13:14:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Lusaka
Cable title:  

CONSULTATIONS WITH MWANAWASA ON NEXT STEPS

Tags:  PREL PGOV ZI ZA 
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VZCZCXRO9030
OO RUEHDU RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHLS #0463/01 1181314
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 271314Z APR 08
FM AMEMBASSY LUSAKA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5741
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LUSAKA 000463 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF/S, AF/FO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/25/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV ZI ZA
SUBJECT: CONSULTATIONS WITH MWANAWASA ON NEXT STEPS

REF: LUANDA 331

Classified By: Ambassador Carmen Martinez for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LUSAKA 000463

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF/S, AF/FO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/25/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV ZI ZA
SUBJECT: CONSULTATIONS WITH MWANAWASA ON NEXT STEPS

REF: LUANDA 331

Classified By: Ambassador Carmen Martinez for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary. In a meeting with President Mwanawasa, A/S
Frazer and NSC Senior Director Pittman called upon the
Southern African Development Community (SADC) to increase its
pressure on President Mugabe, offer its protection to
Tsvangirai, and send a delegation of senior statesmen to

SIPDIS
Harare. They drew attention to gross instances of human
rights abuse in Zimbabwe, and emphasized the need for
immediate action. President Mwanawasa said that although
SADC sanctions against President Mugabe would be the most
effective tool, this solution would not be supported by many
of his SADC counterparts. He said he was prepared to send a
committee of SADC leaders to entreat Mugabe, as well as a
delegation of former heads of state. He indicated strong
support for a government of national unity, which he said
might be the only way forward. End Summary.


2. (C) On April 26, A/S Frazer and NSC Senior Director
Pittman discussed the deteriorating situation in Zimbabwe
with President Mwanawasa, along with Foreign Minister Pande,
Presidential Minister Cecil Holmes, and other senior
advisors. A/S Frazer acknowledged President Mwanawasa's
positive role in addressing issues in Zimbabwe through his
position as SADC Chair and conveyed a letter from President
Bush expressing appreciation for the Zambian President's
leadership. A/S Frazer shared USG concerns about the delay
in releasing election results and the escalating violence.
She also suggested that the environment in Zimbabwe no longer
provides for free and fair elections, in case of a run-off.


3. (C) President Mwanawasa said that events in Zimbabwe show
"extreme disregard for the rule of law and ... are an
embarrassment to the region." President Mwanawasa pointed to
the violation of SADC election protocols, and said there is
no excuse for delays in releasing the election results.
Referring to the SADC emergency summit on April 12 in Lusaka,
and a subsequent heads of state summit on development in
Mauritius on April 19, President Mwanawasa said that he had

hoped that after these "lively" meetings, "the dissent that
was expressed by SADC countries would send a message" to
President Mugabe. President Mwanawasa pointed to SADC
sanctions--and suspension of SADC membership--as the ideal
instrument to pressure Mugabe to step down, but said that
this initiative was unlikely to be supported by a majority of
SADC member states. He expressed regret that some SADC
leaders continue to feel sympathetic to Mugabe.


4. (C) Echoing A/S Frazer's remarks and referring to the vote
re-counts and tabulations, President Mwanawasa said "I am not
so sure how credible the results will be, once they are
released." In the event of a run-off, he said that an
environment probably does not exist for free and fair
elections. He conveyed reports of electoral abuse,
intimidation, and violence. He opined that many Zimbabweans
would not come out to vote in a run-off, or would not vote
according to their conscience.


5. (C) Regarding President Mbeki's role as SADC mediator on
Zimbabwe, President Mwanawasa related a recent conversation
in which President Mbeki claimed that he had been
misunderstood when he said that Zimbabwe was not in a crisis.
President Mwanawasa said that he was prepared to give the
South African President the benefit of the doubt,
particularly as President Mbeki had played a useful role in
ensuring, originally, the peaceful conduct of Zimbabwe's
national elections. He suggested, however, that President
Mbeki's effectiveness may be limited now that the Movement
for Democratic Change (MDC) had lost confidence in him.


6. (C) President Mwanawasa shared details about his
discussions with Tsvangirai during the Zimbabwe opposition
leader's visit to Lusaka. He said that Tsvangirai was open
to a government of national unity, particularly as Tsvangirai
believes that he has won the national elections, but not with
a majority of votes. Tsvangirai, he said, thought this could
be a way forward. According to President Mwanawasa,
Zimbabwe's Health Minister, who attended a SADC ministerial
in Lusaka this week, told him that ZANU-PF is open to the
possibility of a government of national unity and President
Mwanawasa "should not be surprised if (he is) invited to
discuss this possibility."


7. (C) President Mwanawasa said he intends to discuss with
President Dos Santos the possibility of sending a committee
of SADC presidents to talk to President Mugabe and Zimbabwean
opposition leaders. He also called for a delegation
comprised of former heads of state--such as Kaunda of Zambia,

LUSAKA 00000463 002 OF 002


Nujoma of Namibia, and Chissano of Mozambique--to entreat the
Zimbabwean leader. A/S Frazer agreed, saying that even if
President Mbeki continues in his role, these former
Presidents could play a constructive role. She projected
that it would be difficult for President Mugabe to dismiss a
mission of first generation African leaders.


8. (C) In response to President Mwanawasa's request for
proposals on how to move forward, A/S Frazer answered that
SADC should offer a security detail to Tsvangirai so that he
can return to Zimbabwe without fearing for his life. She
encouraged SADC leaders to communicate to Mugabe that no harm
should befall Tsvangirai. She pointed to past practices in
Burundi and the Democratic Republic of Congo, where South
Africa offered its protection to returning opposition leaders
so that they could return safely. Such an act by President
Mbeki, A/S Frazer added, could help restore relations with
the MDC.


9. (C) A/S Frazer emphasized that any solution that precludes
President Mugabe's stepping down is unacceptable. She
recognized that an easy solution for SADC would be to do
nothing. Such a solution, she said, would do injustice to
the Zimbabwean people, who exercised courage during the March
29 elections. The responsibility now, she urged, rests with
the international community, rather than the Zimbabwean
people. She also noted that the USG would not support a
solution that entails Mugabe holding on to power, in which
case the USG would escalate its sanctions against Zimbabwe's
leadership.


10. (C) NSC Director Pittman indicated USG interest in taking
the issue forward at the United Nations, so that the
international community could speak with one voice and in
complement to SADC. Despite President Dos Santos's
suggestions in a meeting on April 25 that a crisis would
develop in Zimbabwe when the election results are finally
announced, A/S Frazer pointed out that the crisis is already
underway, with serious reports of intimidation, electoral
fraud, and human rights abuse: "The crisis is now. Now is
the time to push hard."


11. (C) At the close of the meeting, Foreign Minister Pande
confided that he had discussed the issue of the arms shipment
to Zimbabwe with the Chinese diplomatic mission. The Chinese
diplomats had told him that China is embarrassed and prepared
to recall the vessel. In conclusion, President Mwanawasa
said that he hoped recent events demonstrate "how far SADC
will go" to bring peace to the region. He welcomed further
dialogue on Zimbabwe, and promised to be in contact with A/S
Frazer to exchange ideas on the best way forward. He also
welcomed additional high-level USG visitors, including
President Bush.


12. (C) Comment. It was encouraging to hear President
Mwanawasa frame his statements about Zimbabwe in a human
rights context and in a way that showed his awareness of the
proliferation of human rights abuse in Zimbabwe. There
seemed to be little doubt in his mind that Tsvangirai had won
the elections. At one point, President Mwanawasa even
mistakingly referred to the Zimbabwe opposition leader as
"President Tsvangirai." His multiple solicitations for
guidance on the best way forward was encouraging and pointed
to his sincerity and commitment in finding a solution that
will bring both peace and change to Zimbabwe.
MARTINEZ