ZAMBIAN ELECTION: LITTLE GROUNDS FOR PROTEST, BUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L LUSAKA 001065


E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/03/2018
TAGS: PGOV KDEM ZA
SUBJECT: ZAMBIAN ELECTION: LITTLE GROUNDS FOR PROTEST, BUT
THAT WON'T STOP SATA

REF: A. LUSAKA 1060

B. LUSAKA 1059

C. LUSAKA 1058

D. LUSAKA 1057

E. LUSAKA 1028 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: Ambassador Donald E. Booth for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: The Patriotic Front (PF) is planning to file
a petition calling for a partial recount based on PF
estimates of how it should have performed in certain areas
and complains vaguely of other malfeasance for which it has
little to no proof. While the October 30 presidential
by-election was remarkable for its organization and a strong
performance by the Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ),
polling was not without issues and controversies. U.S.
Embassy election monitoring teams noted some minor
discrepancies that point to a need for ECZ attention before
the next elections in 2011.

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PF CALLING FOR RECOUNT
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2. (C) Patriotic Front (PF) spokesman and Member of
Parliament Given Lubinda, expressed to PolOff November 3
dissatisfaction with the ECZ's conduct of the poll and the
subsequent counting. He said PF is reviewing the results
November 3 and is preparing a petition, which it intends to
submit to the High Court on November 4 or 5, calling for a
recount in as many as 39 constituencies where PF had not
performed as well as anticipated and/or where the ECZ's
results did not correspond with the tallies of their polling
agents.


3. (C) Although Lubinda also objected to the ECZ's delays in
releasing results, the exclusion of the public at polling
stations during counting, and the MMD's alleged purchase of
voter cards, he said PF does not intend to raise these issues
in the court appeal. He explained that PF had learned from
its experiences in 2006, when the High Court dismissed its
appeals related to voter card buying and bribery because of
insufficient evidence and counterclaims that PF was engaged
in similar practices. By disputing the actual results,
Lubinda said it becomes "a case of mere arithmetic, and
difficult for the court to dismiss."


4. (C) Lubinda said PF did not have sufficient resources to
deploy party agents to each of Zambia's 6,456 polling
stations, and that there were many "blind spots" in the
country where the party had relied entirely on non-partisan
independent election monitors. He implied that PF had not
completed a parallel vote count to challenge the ECZ's final
tallies. Regarding the information PF had allegedly received
from an ECZ insider outlining MMD plans to rig the election
in collusion with the ECZ (reftel E),Lubinda described the
information as a "decoy" designed to distract PF from other
vulnerable areas.

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FEW PROBLEMS OBSERVED AT POLLS BY MISSION OBSERVER TEAMS...
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5. (SBU) The Embassy's 17 observer teams--which visited over
200 polling stations on election day--gave the Electoral
Commission high marks for the overall conduct of the
election. Only a few minor discrepancies were recorded:

--Election officials turned away several voters who had their
identification materials but were not on the voter roll,
advising them to go to the constituency center.

--Some election officials incorrectly inked the hands of
voters, applying marks to the index fingers or left thumbs
instead of the right thumbs of voters.

--Replacement voter cards were not available at a few
stations for voters who had requested them, despite ECZ
assurances they would be there (PF claims this was
disproportionately a problem in PF strongholds).

--At some polling stations, Embassy reps observed polling
officials pre-stamping ballots rather than stamping each
ballot separately and in the presence of the prospective
voter, as dictated by election guidelines. (Note: Each
ballot needed to be stamped by an ECZ official on the back
indicating it had been given to a valid voter. There also
were instances observed of ballots having been marked on the
front "voting side." End note.)

--Some polling stations opened after 6:30 A.M., including one
outside Chipata that did not open until 8:20 due to the late
arrival of election materials. The presiding officer there
had to bicycle eight kilometers to obtain the ballot papers.
(Note: The ECZ publicly announced on November 2 that four
polling places in Western Province were allowed to vote on
Friday and Saturday after the vehicles delivering their
ballot papers had broken down. End note.)


6. (U) These discrepancies, however, were the exception, not
the rule. The vast majority of presiding officers conducted
their polling stations in a highly professional manner and
with no visible problems. Most stations opened on time, and
presiding officers handled the ballot boxes in a transparent
manner. Many said they and their polling assistants had
spent the previous night on the floor of the polling station
with their ballot materials to ensure they and the materials
were there on time. ECZ officials had to take an exam to
qualify to work as election officers. Polling agents from at
least two parties were present at all but a handful of the
stations observed by Embassy teams, and approximately 95
percent also had civilian observers, providing a valuable
check on election officials. None of the party agents or
domestic monitors expressed any concerns to Embassy observers.

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...BUT COUNTING, COLLATING A WEAK POINT
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7. (U) If there was any weak point in the electoral process,
it was in the counting of ballots at the polling stations and
in the collating and reporting at constituency centers, in
large part due to resource constraints. At the polling
stations, counting commenced following the poll's 6:00 p.m.
closing, after party agents, observers, and ECZ
representatives had already officiated for more than 12 hours
and were clearly fatigued. Counting was done in poor light,
often by lamp or candle light. Some officers also appeared
to have trouble counting, prompting the need for recounts.
Furthermore, while counting was supposed to have been done in
a secure room with only accredited agents and officers
present, Emboffs observed several cases where unaccredited
members of the public moved in and out of the stations, or
were pressed up against open windows to overhear the
proceedings. In addition, there was a mulititude of forms
and sealed envelopes to be recorded, filed, and sealed, which
often took longer than the actual counting and served to
confuse presiding officers and invite mistakes. There are no
indications that these problems opened the door for ballot
stuffing or other wide-scale cheating, but they did add an
extensive amount of time to the process--sometimes several
hours to count just a few hundred votes. Fatigue-induced
counting errors cannot be ruled out.


8. (U) Constituency collation centers had similar
shortcomings. At one collation center, Emboffs found the
delivery of ballot boxes and results sheets to be a chaotic
process that kept up to three dozen people busy in the room
at the same time. Although Emboffs observed no problems, the
sheer amount of people and paper in the room made it appear
quite possible for results sheets to be inadvertently
discarded or otherwise disappear. Fatigue was an even
greater problem for those at the collation centers-- some
officers worked through the night, as the final polling place
results did not arrive until 10:00 a.m. on Friday morning.
Collation center election officers lastly had to contend with
a large amount of tally sheets that were incorrectly prepared
by the polling place presiding officers.


9. (SBU) In our opinion, these shortcomings did not appear to
affect the election outcome. However, the closeness of the
poll--Banda having won by just 35,000 votes--does show the
need for improvement by the ECZ before the 2011 poll, as
small, unintentional counting errors have the potential to
prove crucial in a tight race. Furthermore, increased
transportation resources (for picking up polling station
results) and simplified reconciliation procedures, could make
the process more efficient, which would greatly reduce the
amount of suspicion in a closely contested race.

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OBSERVERS LARGELY WELCOMED
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10. (U) Observer teams reported few problems in gaining
access to polling stations and collation centers, as most
presiding officers appeared aware that international
observers might make an appearance. Most were very
courteous, even enthusiastic, allowing Emboffs to watch the
process, talk to party agents and other observers, and even
take photographs. The sole incident occurred at a polling
station in Eastern Province, where Emboffs had gone to
observe counting after close. Election officials were very
hostile and conducted a search of the team's vehicle before
allowing it to park at the school where polling was
conducted. The Embassy team learned later that this
hostility was due to a rumor that the USG was supporting
Michael Sata and that observers might try to smuggle in
ballots marked for Sata.


BOOTH